Biggest Difference: Sportsbook Line vs. Model Line (Week 0 & Week 1)

Now that the books have just about all the Week 0 & Week 1 lines up and times are slow in the sports betting world, I thought it would be a good exercise to start to dive into the lines.

In the chart below, I’ve picked out the games that have the biggest discrepancy between the current sportsbook line and the lines from the model that I use. For consistency sake, I used bookmaker to pull the lines. Obviously some lines will vary from sportsbook to sportsbook and there will be plenty of line movement between now and kickoff, but this gives us a starting point.

A few notes on this:

  • I did not create this model myself. Somebody a lot smarter than me did and I pay him for his work. He’s been doing it for years, has a track record of success and has improved it each year.
  • I don’t blindly tail this model. It doesn’t predict the future. It’s a tool I use when handicapping. The game isn’t played in a computer but it’s nice to reference. It’s one of just several things I factor in when handicapping a game.
  • I had to draw the line somewhere, so for this post I only included the lines with a difference of 8 or more points. It seemed like has good a number as any to draw the line.

Week 0: Biggest Differences Bookmaker vs. Model

UConn @ Fresno State
Bookmaker: Fresno State -27
Model: Fresno State -17.5
Difference: 9.5 Points

Week 1: Biggest Differences Bookmaker vs. Model

Old Dominion @ Wake Forest
Bookmaker: Wake Forest -32.5
Model: Wake Forest: -18.5
Difference: 14 Points

Army @ Georgia State
Bookmaker: Georgia State -3
Model: Army -8.5
Difference: 11.5 Points

Alabama vs Miami
Bookmaker: Alabama -18.5
Model: Alabama -6.5
Difference: 12 Points

La Tech @ Mississippi St
Bookmaker: Mississippi St -26.5
Model: Mississippi St -12
Difference: 14.5 Points

UMass vs Pitt
Bookmaker: Pittsburgh -38
Model: Pittsburgh -27.5
Difference: 10.5 Points

Syracuse @ Ohio
Bookmaker: Syracuse -1.5
Model: Ohio -6.5
Difference: 8 Points

UTSA @ Illinois
Bookmaker: Illinois -7
Model: UTSA -2
Difference: 9 Points

FAU @ Florida
Bookmaker: Florida -24.5
Model: Florida -11
Difference: 13.5 Points

New Mexico State @ San Diego State
Bookmaker: San Diego State: -30
Model: San Diego State: -20.5
Difference: 9.5 Points

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