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Last Week Recap

Week 0: 2-3, -4.99 Units
YTD: 2-3, -4.99 Units

Not the start I was hoping for out of the gate but it’s a long season and I plan on being higher volume than I was last season so I’m not really sweating a 2-3 start. I am very aggressive with my units (3 unit standard play). With the amount of volume I play you might be more comfortable playing smaller units than I do. This is completely up to you and your bankroll.

Last week could have been a lot worse if not for the miracle TT over on New Mexico State. They scored a TD on a meaningless last play of the game. The teaser got crushed but fortunately only counts as one loss instead of two. Got great CLV on the Jacksonville State/UTEP Over (3 points) & SC State (5-6 points) but both lost easily. Frustrating but it is what it is. Some people won’t want to hear this but getting that kind of CLV means the process was on point. Sometimes the ball just doesn’t bounce your way.

NCAA Football Week 1 Official Play Write-Ups

Kent State @ UCF (-33.5) (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 7/18 @ 10:03 AM

Kent State is a pretty historically bad team by power rating standards this year. They rank dead last in returning production (133rd) at 31.9% and are replacing their Head Coach, OC & DC. HC Sean Lewis maybe saw the writing on the wall about how bad this team might be this year because he left a head coaching job for a Coordinator job at Colorado – that’s typically seen as a step backwards. They lost their starting QB, top 3 receiving targets, and return only 5.15% of their offensive line snaps. What’s worse, they will be going through a system change from Sean Lewis’ air raid to a likely ground & pound attack. We aren’t exactly sure what they’re going to run but they brought in the former Minnesota RB coach so you would assume they run a similar system to Minnesota, where they leaned heavily on RB Mo Ibrahim and played at one of the slowest non-service academy paces in the Nation.

I think this will be a terrible matchup for this inexperienced offensive line going up against UCF who has a nasty D Line. The weakness of the UCF defense is the secondary, but I don’t think Kent State has the horses to expose that as they are replacing their QB, top WRs & have an OLine that will struggle to block to UCF pass rush as this defense returns 84.8% of their pressures from last season.

UCF ranks 21st in the Nation in returning production this season. The weakness of the offense was explosive plays, ranking just 107th in the Nation last year for an otherwise good unit. HC Gus Malzahn addressed this weakness by bringing in UAB’s OC Darin Hinshaw who ranked 20th in explosive plays last year.

It’s a big spread, but 30+ point favorites went 20-9 (68.9%) ATS the spread last season as these good teams typically want to make a good impression. It is a Thursday night game so they will have 2 extra days to prepare for their week two game which could lead to giving the starters a few extra reps. HC Guz Malzahn has shown that he isn’t afraid to run up the score or cover big numbers, as he is 7-1 ATS the spread in the last 5 seasons as a 23+ pt favorite:

2022 (UCF)
-43.5 vs SC State: W, 56-10
-23.5 vs Temple: W, 70-13

2021 (UCF)
-30 vs UConn: W, 49-17

2019 (Auburn)
-35.5 vs Kent St: W, 55-16
-45.5 vs Samford: W, 52-0

2018 (Auburn)
-27 vs So. Miss: W, 24-13 (didn’t cover)
-29.5 vs Liberty: W, 53-0
-30 vs Arkansas: W, 34-3

Cameron Ross (UConn) Over 24.5 (-115) Rec Yds vs NC State (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 8/30 at 5:10 PM

Cameron Ross had a monster 2019 freshmen season going over this # in 9 of 11 games that year. Since then he has been crippled by injuries, suffering a season ending injury the second game of the year in 2021 and a training camp injury in 2022 that kept him out until the bowl game (UConn didn’t have a 2020 season). He appears back and healthy this year and is listed as the starter on the depth chart. He only needs 2-3 receptions to get this over and I think he should get there. UConn is chasing 14 according to the spread so should be throwing it quite a bit late.

Central Michigan/Michigan State Under 45.5 (-110) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 8/28 @ 1:30 PM

This is a game where I think both teams are going to run the ball. MSU lost their starting QB Thorne (Auburn) and top 2 WR Reed (NFL) & Coleman (FSU). Reed & Coleman combined for 172 targets & 113 receptions last year. It will take time to figure out how they are going to fill that void. With a new QB starting and with them losing so much production from the WR position, I would expect Tucker to lean on the run game early. MSU returns RB Berger & 3 OL so that could be a strength for the offense. CMU returns all of their LB from last year so hopefully will be able to limit the explosive runs.

I’d look for CMU to run the ball as well. I’d expect Bert Emanuel Jr. to get the majority of the snaps at QB. When he got his turn late in the season last year he put up some crazy rushing stats but barely threw the ball at all. While I worry about MSU’s secondary, I don’t think CMU is built to beat them there. They will try to run the ball and MSU returns their two best LBs in Cal Haladay & Aaron Brule. CMU played at a much slower pace last season when Emanuel took over for Richardson (20.8 secs/play with Richardson vs 23.0 with Emanuel)

With both teams looking to run the ball and the new clock rules keeping the clock running on first downs, I think this could be a lower possession game. I’ll predict a 27-10 type game.

Stanford (-3) (-115) @ Hawaii (Bet Online)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 8/30 @ 8:25 PM

I’ve been watching this line move all week and I think it’s finally moved to the point where I need to jump on. I think the market is overreacting to Hawaii’s Week 0 performance where they lost by 7 at Vandy but had a postgame win expectancy in the 70-80% range.

As I also mentioned in the Auburn writeup there is data to suggest teams that have tape on their opponent seem to have an advantage in Week 1 vs the team’s that played a game in Week 0. Combine that with the big travel for Hawaii: they played a late game on Saturday night in Nashville (kickoff delayed almost two hours due to weather) and now have to play in Hawaii on a short week on Friday night. That seems tough against a fresh team that I think has a talent advantage. I’ll go with Stanford with a 6-point win.

UMass @ Auburn (-38) (-110) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted 6/27 @ 9:18 PM

Note: Line moved from around -39 to around -35 after UMass’s surprising Week 0 win. Hopefully the 4-point move is an overreaction to Week 0. Writeup was written prior to that game and while I will admit that UMass looked better than I expected at NMST let’s see how they stack up against an SEC opponent.

This will be Hugh Freeze’s first game as the new head coach at Auburn. He should be very familiar with UMass. He spent the last 4 seasons at Liberty where they played UMass every season. Here were the results:

2019: Liberty Won 63-21
2020: Liberty Won 45-0
2021: Liberty Won 62-17
2022: Liberty Won 42-24

As you can see, even at Liberty Freeze beat UMass by 39+ in 3 out of 4 games with an Average Margin of Victory of 37.5 points. Now he’ll be coaching a significantly more talented team at Auburn.

While Freeze’s team has improved a great deal, UMass remains pretty much the same. They are a bottom 3 team in the country in most-respected power rankings. They are coming off a 1-11 season in which their offense ranked second to last in the entire Nation. There wasn’t much that happened over the offseason to expect a huge jump in their results last year. They have to play a week zero game vs New Mexico State this year prior to the Auburn game. As I talked about on my socials today, teams that played a week 0 game are only 9-14 ATS over the last two seasons in week 1 vs teams that did not play a week 0 game. Furthermore, when these teams had to play their Week 1 game on the road they are only 2-6 ATS.

I expect Freeze to look to make a splash in his first game as Jordan Hare. He’s definitely the kind of coach that I can see wanting to run up the score a little bit and make sure he covers the spread for the boosters (yes, some coaches care about this… take a look at Lane Kiffin vs Vandy last year and I think Hugh is similar). He has a HUGE talent advantage and is very good at scheming guys open even when is at a talent disadvantage. This reminds of Bryan Harsin’s first game at Auburn in 2021 when they were a 37 point favorite and won the game 60-10. I think we will see a similar result this year as Hugh keeps his foot on the gas pedal.

The other factor I like here is that Auburn has a legit QB controversy with last year’s starter Robby Ashford & Michigan State transfer Peyton Thorne. This means that even when they bench whoever QB1 is, I would expect them to still let QB2 throw it around because these guys are still competing and they want both guys to get game reps. I don’t think the air will completely come out of their sails once they pull their QB.

Last season, teams that we’re 30+ favorites in Week 0 or Week 1 went 20-9 (68.9%) ATS. Typically teams come out of the gate firing in their first game. After a long offseason we usually don’t have to worry about a letdown or super vanilla coaching. Teams want to get off to that strong start. I think that will be the case here. I see Auburn cruising to a 51-7 type win.

Texas State/Baylor Over 58.5 (-105) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.15 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 8/19 @ 1:56 PM

I’ve written a lot about Texas State with my futures writeup so see that post for more info on them. The quick version is that they are bringing over a coaching staff from the FCS level that played at a super fast pace last year and put up a ton of points. They’ve added 2 former SEC QBs in the transfer portal this offseason. I think that their razzle dazzle offense will be able to generate some points in this game.

But the Texas State defense is going to be a problem in this game. Even in the Sun Belt they will probably give up some big point totals and I just don’t think they have the size, strength or personnel on defense to stop Baylor much at all. I think it will end up looking a lot like what it looked like with Navy trying to stop Notre Dame last Saturday. I’ll call this one a 45-20 game.

LSU/Florida State Over 55.5 (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 8/9 @ 10:57 AM

My preference would actually be a juiced 55 here as 55 is the most common total point result in college football, but I don’t see any available right now and would rather not wait. I think this one will end up closing much higher. It will be a Nationally televised stand-along game on the Sunday night of Labor Day weekend. People will be betting.

This is a game you’re not going to want to miss. We get two Top 10 teams doing battle in the first week of the season. Both teams are coming off very good seasons and bringing back a ton of production as well as some key incoming transfers. I made the mental note after last season’s playoff semifinals to remember in these huge playoff caliber type games that good offenses typically beat good defenses. We saw that in both TCU-Michigan & Georgia-Ohio State and I think we are going to see that again here.

I’ve heard Bud Elliott (one of the sharpest CFB minds out there in my opinion) say on more than one occasion for a team like LSU you’d rather play them early than late. This is because they brought in virtually an entirely new secondary via the transfer portal. While these guys are talented it may take them a while to gel and get comfortable with each other as communication in the secondary is so critical. Florida State is a tough opening matchup for an inexperienced secondary. Their offense really got rolling last year behind Heisman candidate QB Jordan Travis and they ended the season averaging 40.1 ppg in their last 7 games. They didn’t stand pat though. They went out and added a stud WR in Keon Coleman from Michigan State and a big addition at TE in South Carolina’s Jaheim Bell. This offense looks really good on paper.

The FSU defense graded out pretty good last year, but the splits are pretty dramatic in terms of how they did against bad offenses vs good offenses. Several better offenses put up 30 points against them last year: Louisville 31, Wake Forest 31, Clemson 34, Florida 38 & Oklahoma 32 (bowl game with key opt outs up front). LSU’s offense is probably better than all of those 2022 offenses.

This one could get fun on a holiday weekend. I could easily see both teams scoring in the 30’s here. I’d be surprised if we didn’t end up with at least a few points of CLV here as well.

Official Plays – Week 1

Kent State @ UCF (-33.5) (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Cameron Ross (UConn) Over 24.5 (-115) Rec Yds vs NC State (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units

Central Michigan/Michigan State Under 45.5 (-110) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Stanford (-3) (-115) @ Hawaii (Bet Online)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units

UMass @ Auburn (-38) (-110) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Texas State/Baylor Over 58.5 (-105) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.15 Units to win 3.00 Units

LSU/Florida State Over 55.5 (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units