Tarleton State vs. New Mexico State (-112)

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Be sure to follow me on Twitter @MikeyLoBets as I tweet my plays out as soon as I make them.

After getting a little taste of the FCS last weekend, with one game on Saturday night, we have our first full slate of Spring FCS Football this weekend. There are games scheduled for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday with many available to stream on ESPN+ which should make for an enjoyable weekend.

One play we are locking in right away for this weekend is New Mexico State -2.5 vs. Tarleton State. This weekend’s FCS lines we’re realeased this morning on DraftKings and then Bookmaker quickly followed after. This is good information to have moving forward as sometimes there is a wider disparity on FCS lines from book to book then you will see with FBS lines.

This line is one I have been monitoring closely this morning and it has moved around a lot. I saw it open at -2.5 on DraftKings and then quickly shoot up to -3.5 where it is currently sitting as I write this blog. Meanwhile on Bookmaker, I saw it at -3.5 before quickly dropping all the way to -1 for a brief moment before it jumped back -1.5. Then it was taken off the board for a minute and then put back at 2.5 where I got it (and where it still currently sits). I think I got a nice number.

I wrote about Tarleton State last weekend when I was digging into their opener against McNeese State. This is their first season as an FCS Team after making the jump from DII. They lost a tough home opener last week after jumping out to a 31-17 lead they let McNeese State come back and force OT where they eventually lost 40-37 in the second OT period.

New Mexico State is an FBS Independent team that did not play this Fall. With almost all FBS conference electing to do conference only schedules it made things really tough for the Independents to put a schedule together. While some teams figured out a way to make it work, Notre Dame joined the ACC for a year…. BYU, Army, and Liberty were able to put schedules together, other independents like New Mexico State and UConn elected not to play. As it currently sits, they are planning on playing 3 games this Spring to get ready for the Fall. They are slated to play a full Fall season which includes games against SEC opponents Alabama and Kentucky and several Mountain West teams.

I know that this has been a brutal off-season for New Mexico State. Not being able to play in the Fall had to be discouraging and they lost some players to the transfer portal. The state of New Mexico also had some of the strictest Covid-19 restrictions as well. That being said, things have eased now and they will be playing this game at their home stadium.

As square as it may sound, I just think the talent disparity will be too much in this one. We have an FBS team (who has Alabama on their schedule later this year) that has to be chomping at the bit to finally get to play a football game at home against a middle of the pack FCS team that has only played one game above the DII level. I’ll take the Aggies laying less than a field goal in this one.

UPDATE #1: Reports are coming in that this game may be moved back a day to Sunday and that the game would need to be played in the Sun Bowl. Apparently guidelines allow New Mexico State to practice in their stadium but not play games? Dumb. If this is the case we will see if Bookmaker voids my wager. I stand by it but if the bet gets voided I will update everyone on what I decide to do (bet at a new line or sit it out).

UPDATE #2: The bet has officially been voided and taken off the board.

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Update #3: I have officially re-bet this game. I actually got a better line as the books accounted for the new location. The game is now Sunday afternoon.

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Official Play – FCS Spring Week 2
Tarleton State @ New Mexico State (-112) (DraftKings): Risking 2.24 to win 2.00

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