NCAA Week 15 – Official Plays

Rather than creating a new post for each bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.

Last Week Recap

Last Week: 3-1, +3.20 Units
YTD: 75-52 (59.0%), +73.38 Units

Last Week
Futures

Please note that I also graded and added all of my futures bets to my YTD record. The 2-4 record hurts my overall percentage, but the +17 units sure help (Thank you, Utah!).

Championship weekend treated us well as we made over 3 units. San Diego State was just a bad read on my biggest play of the weekend, but Pittsburgh and WKU we’re exactly what we expected. We got a little lucky on the Kent State TT Over, cashing that on a garbage TD on the last play of the game. But after losing the Air Force/Nevada Under in OT a few weeks ago we deserved one to even the score.

Those of you that joined my for live stream on patreon on Friday night also made over $200 on flash bets in the WKU/UTSA game. Thanks for joining!

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On to Week 15….Army-Navy is the only FBS game of the week, but we also have the FCS Quarterfinals games. Those lines should go up later in the week.

Week 15 Official Play Write-Ups

Disclaimer: A common theme you will see in my NCAA posts is that the lines have moved from the point I bet them on Sunday afternoon to where they are now as I type this on Monday. If you take this stuff very seriously you need to be jumping on these lines early and having money in multiple books so that you can shop around and find the possible line for yourself. If you just like doing this as a hobby… that’s totally cool. But if your goal is to make some real money here, you need to give yourself every opportunity to be successful by getting the best possible line. The oddsmakers are really good at what they do… don’t give them any extra help.

Army/Navy Under 36.5 (-110) (Draft Kings)

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It looks like the line is down to 35.5 on Draft Kings right now (as I type this on Sunday). I’d still play it at that number, but fortunately DK offered a line last week that we jumped on at 36.5. This writeup will be very similar to my writeup from the Army-Air Force Under a few weeks ago (that we cashed even though the game went to OT) because it’s the same principle in this one.

We’ve got two service academies in this one. Service academies run the triple option, meaning they run the ball almost every play which means the clock is almost always moving and their drives take a really long time. Since 2005, when two service academies play the Under is 39-9-1 for this very reason. The oddsmakers are finally starting to adjust as the lines are coming in a little lower (I was hoping to get around 38), but I still don’t think the line is low enough.

As a point of reference, when these two teams played last year the final score was 15-0. In fact, the Army-Navy game has gone under the total every time for the last 15 years (that’s not a typo). Get the picture? It’s just really hard for games to be high scoring when both offenses run the triple option. The clock is always running and the offenses just aren’t designed for quick, explosive plays. They are designed for long drives that wear down the opposing defense over time. But since both these defenses practice against the triple option all the time when they go against their own offense… they are used to defending it. It’s all assignment football. The only thing that can crush an under in a game like this is a bunch of fumbles setting up short fields for the other team. That is a possibility with the triple option. But as long as both teams take care of the football, we should be in good shape here. I’ll predict a 21-10 game.

Official Plays – Week 15

Army/Navy Under 36.5 (-110) (DraftKings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

 

 

 

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