NCAA Week 14 – Official Plays

Rather than creating a new post for each bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.

Last Week Recap

Last Week: 6-6, +0.93 Units
YTD: 70-47 (59.8%), +56.18 Units

Last Week

This week was a grind. I dug myself a hole with a rare 0-2 performance in midweek MACtion but was able to climb out of it to turn a small profit. There were some bad losses: The Buffalo offense didn’t show up, apparently Boston College had the flu, and UTSA mailed it in. And some of the wins were grinds: Iowa had to come back, Coastal went to OT, etc. I guess you really can “throw out the record books” during rivalry week because some of the outcomes didn’t make sense. I’m proud of the way we we’re able to battle and keep our head above water this week though. We ended up with a +0.93 unit profit making this our 7th winning week in a row!

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On to Week 14….

Week 14 Official Play Write-Ups

Disclaimer: A common theme you will see in my NCAA posts is that the lines have moved from the point I bet them on Sunday afternoon to where they are now as I type this on Monday. If you take this stuff very seriously you need to be jumping on these lines early and having money in multiple books so that you can shop around and find the possible line for yourself. If you just like doing this as a hobby… that’s totally cool. But if your goal is to make some real money here, you need to give yourself every opportunity to be successful by getting the best possible line. The oddsmakers are really good at what they do… don’t give them any extra help.

San Diego State (-3.5) (-120) vs Utah State (Bet Online)

Tweet

I’m told the line has already moved to -5.5. I would still play it at that number, but for 3 units.

Utah State made me a lot of money this season, and for that I’m grateful, but I think their run ends here. Utah State is a team that has taken advantage of a favorable schedule and to their credit they have beat up on the beatable teams. But when they have played higher tier teams they have struggled (Boise State & BYU). I think San Diego State is the best defense they will have played all season and their high powered offense has been slowed down by the better defenses they’ve faced (only 3 points vs Boise State, 20 points vs BYU, and 17 points vs Wyoming). I think the Aztecs defense will completely shut down the Utah State running game and be able to generate a consistent pass rush to fluster Aggie QB Logan Bonner.

On the other side of the ball, Utah State has struggled to stop the better rushing attacks they’ve faced. Air Force ran for 437 yards against them, BYU 221, UNLV 219, and Wyoming 362). San Diego State has a very strong running back in Greg Bell and I think he will put up big numbers in this one. I think the running game will perform very well en route to a relatively easy San Diego State win.

Pittsburgh (-2.5) (-115) vs Wake Forest

Tweet 2

I think that Pittsburgh is a more complete team. I’ve wrote about Wake a lot in the past, but what it boils down to is that I just have no confidence in their defense. I think they got lucky last week that Boston College got hit with the flu or that might have been a wildly different game. I’m willing to go back to the well here and if Wake beats me again I’ll tip my cap to them. The Pitt offense should be able to score pretty much at will here. They have a great QB in Kenny Pickett and are averaging 43 points/game on 513 yards/game. We’ve seen the Wake defense really struggle against good offenses giving up 34 to Louisville, 37 to Syracuse, 56 to Army, 58 to North Carolina, 42 to NC State, and 48 to Clemson. Pitt should have no problem topping 40 here.

The Pittsburgh defense is not elite, but it’s solid. That won’t have to get many stops to win this game but I think they will be able to come up with a handful. That should be all they need with what I expect their offense to be able to do. I like Pittsburgh to win a very high scoring game by about 7-10 points.

Official Plays – Week 14

San Diego State (-3.5) (-120) vs Utah State (Bet Online)
Risking 4.80 Units to win 4.00 Units

Pittsburgh (-2.5) (-115) vs Wake Forest (Bet Online)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units

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