NCAA Week 1 – Official Plays

Rather than creating a new post for each futures bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets and subscribe to my Patreon to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.

Last Season Recap

2021 NCAA Football Record: 87-64 (57.6%), +69.51 Units

Click on the link above for the complete documentation of every pick I made last season. You will also get full transparency and honest record keeping from me. Unfortunately you can’t say that about enough people in the sports betting game these days.

As you can see we had a great run and ended the regular season up around 75 units (before giving about 6 back during bowl season). Things really picked up starting in Week 7. We we’re positive every week from Week 7-Week 15 with some of those being monster week!. Keep this in mind in case we have the occasional negative week in September. Non-Conference play can be a little more unpredictable than conference play.

Last Week Recap

Last Week: TBD
YTD: TBD

Will update once Week 0 results are in.

Quick Housekeeping Items

Patreon

MikeyLoBets is on Patreon. Patreon subscribers will get early access to my NCAA Football plays and writeups this year as well as my NFL Pass Attempt model projections & plays. In addition to that, I plan on having 1-2 patreon only live streams a month where we flash bet a college football game (only available on Draft Kings in certain states). I made a ton of money on that last year. Week 0 and Week 1 in College Football will be a little different since the lines get released early, but once we settle into our routine the weekly schedule will look like this:

Sunday-Monday: About 80% of my NCAA Football plays are put in for the next week. I will post them to Patreon as soon as I make them. I honestly sit at my computer on Sunday afternoon refreshing sportsbooks and jumping on lines. Those of you that followed me last year remember that we beat the line movement on almost every play (often by wide margins). This is a huge value!

If you take this stuff very seriously you need to be jumping on these lines early and having money in multiple books so that you can shop around and find the possible line for yourself. If you just like doing this as a hobby… that’s totally cool. But if your goal is to make some real money here, you need to give yourself every opportunity to be successful by getting the best possible line. The oddsmakers are really good at what they do… don’t give them any extra help.

There were about 2 or 3 games last year that my number won while lines that people got later in the week ended up losing or pushing. I remember Memphis -5.5 vs Arkansas State being one of them and the Under in Oklahoma State/Kansas being another. That’s about a 12-unit swing since my plays are typically 3 units. That’s huge.

Tuesday – Writeups for plays will be posted by then

Wednesday-Thursday – NFL Pass Attempt model will be up

Thursday-Friday – Plays & writeups released on Twitter and at www.MikeyLoBets.com to the general public. Lines likely will have moved by this point as this is around 4 days after I’ve put them in and notified Patreon. Any bets made from Thursday on (late bets, live bets, etc) will be announced on patreon and the general public at the same time.

Please note that I will most likely increase the monthly subscription price to $12 when football season starts. That’s about $3/week for every play I’m making + the Pass Attempt model + the flash bet live streams. It still seems like tremendous value to me and I hope you guys can understand and respect that. It’s a ton of work during football season (don’t get me wrong, I love it), but $12 still seems more than fair.

Most importantly, you would be supporting me. Please consider joining – your support would mean a lot to me! Join here: www.patreon.com/MikeyLoBets

Instagram
MikeyLoBets is now on Instagram too! I’m going to try to get some more stuff up there during the season. Please follow @MikeyLoBets! Is Tik Tok next? Not likely….

Okay, that’s enough of all that. Let’s get to the writeups!

Week 1 Official Play Write-Ups

Utah/Florida Over 52.5 (-110) (Draft Kings)

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First things first…. I am putting this bet on July 4th (Happy Independence Day, Everyone!). There is obviously always an element of risk when you put a bet in two months before the game. A key player could get injured/suspended, the weather could end up being terrible on gameday, etc. But I think the risk of waiting to submit this bet and potentially having the line move north of a key number of 53 (and possibly even 54) is greater. So I’m locking this one in now.

Utah was a Top 10 offense in 2021 after they made the move from Charlie Brewer at QB to Cam Rising. Just look at these numbers after making the switch to Rising and giving him a little time to get comfortable:

@ USC: 42 points & 486 yards
vs ASU: 35 points & 455 yards
@ Oregon St: 34 points & 455 yards
vs UCLA: 44 points & 469 yards
@ Stanford: 52 points & 581 yards
@ Arizona: 38 points & 468 yards
vs Oregon: 38 points & 386 yards
vs Colorado: 28 points & 444 yards
vs Oregon (Pac 12 Title Game): 38 points & 361 yards
vs Ohio St (Rose Bowl): 45 points & 463 yards

That is an average of 39.4 points & 456.8 yards during that 10 game stretch to finish the season. Rising is back at QB for the Utes along with 5 of their top 6 pass catchers from 2021 (including two NFL potential TEs) & last year’s starting RB Tavion Thomas. Utah has Phil Steele’s #1 RB & OL units in the conference & #2 QB (behind Caleb Williams and USC).

Florida is a defensive unit that definitely struggled at times in 2021. They gave up 49 points & 454 yards to LSU, 459 yards to South Carolina, 52 points & 530 to Samford (yes, Samford), and 436 yards to UCF in their bowl game. Granted part of the issue in a game like Samford was lack of effort, and the coaching staff switch figures to help in that area, but the fact remains that this is a defense that has a ways to go. Depth is a concern for their front seven and opening up against a team like Utah with a strong running game and dual threat QB will be a big challenge.

On the other side of the ball, Utah typically has a strong defense but they did suffer some big losses this offseason. They lost two linebackers, Devin Lloyd and Nephi Sewell, to the NFL. While they are optimistic about their ability to find replacements for these two, week one on the road against an SEC opponent is a tough starting point for new starters.

Florida’s QB, Anthony Richardson, is a dynamic playmaker. You really need good linebacker play to limit a dual threat QB like him. He is very explosive & is a tough assignment for even the most experienced of linebackers. While Utah’s defense was very good last season, they may have benefitted from playing in a weak Pac 12 conference. They showed some chinks in their armor against stronger opponents: 493 yards vs USC, 468 yards vs Oregon St, 411 yards vs UCLA, and 48 points & 683 yards in the Rose Bowl against an Ohio State team who had their top 2 WR opt out of the game. I respect Utah a lot, but I think the Gator offense will have their moments.

The only thing that worries me about this matchup is the coaching style. Both teams will want to run the ball and will be content letting the clock run a little bit. But that being said, I like the matchup for both offenses. I expected to see this total around 57 or 58 and could easily see this one ending up around 34-27.

2-Line Parlay (-109) (Fan Duel)
BYU (-550) @ USF
Louisville (-160) @ Syracuse

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Those of you that have been with me for awhile know that it’s pretty rare for me to play a parlay or a teaser (especially teasers in CFB). So this is a little uncommon for me. But with the Louisville line hovering around -3/-3.5 & alternate lines not available yet on these books (ex. -2.5, -120) I decided to attack it this way. If a -2.5, -120 was available I probably would have just done that. But since it wasn’t, I got a little more creative.

Let’s start with BYU. I won’t spend as much time on this writeup since it’s -550. I’d be shocked if they lose. USF has a lot of players coming back but are still a bottom team in the AAC. They gave up 35 points & 207 rushing yards per game last year. BYU should be able to move the ball at will against them. USF brought in new coordinators on each side of the ball and a transfer at QB, so it might take them a few weeks to gel with all the new that they have coming in.

BYU is the opposite on the continuity scale. As I wrote in my FBS Independents preview they take a back seat to nobody when it come to continuity. They are one of the few teams to have their starting QB, head coach, and both coordinators coming back. Coming off a 10-win season and having 19 returning starters they are a legit Top 15 team. I look for them to start fast this season. I think they will be ahead of many other teams coming out of camp because of that familiarity aspect. Cougs roll.

Moving on to Louisville. I’m working on my ACC power rankings now and I have Louisville much higher than Syracuse. Honestly I feel like this line should be around -6.5/-7 rather than -3/-3.5. I think it will continue to climb which is why I’m jumping on this line now. I think their 6-6 record was a little misleading last year as they lost 3 conference games on the final play. They have one of the more explosive offenses with Malik Cunningham coming back at QB. He’s one of the more exciting dual threat QBs in the Nation. He rushed for more TDs (20) than Heisman finalist RB Kenneth Walker last year & averaged 6.0 yards/rush. As an offense they averaged 32 points and have tremendous balance rushing & throwing for over 200 yards/game. This year they have 2nd most returning production in the Power 5 conferences. They return all 5 starters on the OL which performed well last year. Syracuse has to replace their entire defensive line in 2022. I think this is a really tough matchup for a brand new DL. As I stated earlier, Louisville runs the ball really well and has a strong OL.

This is a game that Louisville won 31-3 last year. I think both teams are a little better this year and this game is at Syracuse but I just don’t think Syracuse has closed the gap enough. Louisville’s defense struggled, but their offense can really light it up. I don’t think the Syracuse offense has the firepower to match Louisville’s score for score. Eventually the running game will be too much and Louisville will pull away. I’ll predict 34-24.

Texas State (+7.5) (-110) @ Nevada (Fan Duel)

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At this point I have nothing more to say about Nevada. I wrote about them at length with my futures play writeup & then a little more with my Week 0 writeup for their game against New Mexico St. I’m putting this bet in before they play that game, so whatever the result is was not considered when making this bet.

On to Texas State. The more I think about this game, the more I think it’s a coin flip. This is a make or break season for Texas State HC Jake Spavital. This is his 4th season and he pretty much needs to make a bowl to save his job. If that doesn’t give you a sense of urgency to start fast, I don’t know what will. They did a big offseason overhaul to the roster bringing in more than 20 transfers to go along with 14 returning starters.

I really like the addition of QB Layne Hatcher from Arkansas State. He played pretty well for them throwing for more than 2,000 yards & 19 TD in 3 straight seasons. They also return a RB duo that rushed for over 1,000 yards for them last year. It’s a pretty experienced offense going against a pretty inexperienced defense for Nevada. I think the advantage goes to Texas State there. I think the weakness of the team is their defense but Nevada could be one of the weaker FBS offenses this year so I don’t think they’ll be able to take advantage of that. I like this one to end up around 28-23 Texas State.

Official Plays – Week 1

Utah/Florida Over 52.5 (-110) (DraftKings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

2-Line Parlay (-109) (Fan Duel)
BYU (-550) @ USF
Louisville (-160) @ Syracuse
Risking 3.27 Units to win 3.00 Units

Texas State (+7.5) (-110) @ Nevada (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

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