Rather than creating a new post for each futures bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets and subscribe to my Patreon to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.
Last Season Recap
2021 NCAA Football Record: 87-64 (57.6%), +69.51 Units
Click on the link above for the complete documentation of every pick I made last season. You will also get full transparency and honest record keeping from me. Unfortunately you can’t say that about enough people in the sports betting game these days.
As you can see we had a great run and ended the regular season up around 75 units (before giving about 6 back during bowl season). Things really picked up starting in Week 7. We we’re positive every week from Week 7-Week 15 with some of those being monster weeks! Keep this in mind in case we have the occasional negative week in September. Non-Conference play can be a little more unpredictable than conference play.
Quick Housekeeping Items
MikeyLoBets is on Patreon. Patreon subscribers will get early access to my NCAA Football plays and writeups this year as well as my NFL Pass Attempt model projections & plays. In addition to that, I plan on having 1-2 patreon only live streams a month where we flash bet a college football game (only available on Draft Kings in certain states). I made a ton of money on that last year. Week 0 and Week 1 in College Football will be a little different since the lines get released early, but once we settle into our routine the weekly schedule will look like this:
Sunday-Monday: About 80% of my NCAA Football plays are put in for the next week. I will post them to Patreon as soon as I make them. I honestly sit at my computer on Sunday afternoon refreshing sportsbooks and jumping on lines. Those of you that followed me last year remember that we beat the line movement on almost every play (often by wide margins). This is a huge value!
If you take this stuff very seriously you need to be jumping on these lines early and having money in multiple books so that you can shop around and find the possible line for yourself. If you just like doing this as a hobby… that’s totally cool. But if your goal is to make some real money here, you need to give yourself every opportunity to be successful by getting the best possible line. The oddsmakers are really good at what they do… don’t give them any extra help.
There we’re about 2 or 3 games last year that my number won while lines that people got later in the week ended up losing or pushing. I remember Memphis -5.5 vs Arkansas State being one of them and the Under in Oklahoma State/Kansas being another. That’s about a 12-unit swing since my plays are typically 3 units. That’s huge.
Tuesday – Writeups for plays will be posted by then
Wednesday-Thursday – NFL Pass Attempt model will be up
Thursday-Friday – Plays & writeups released on Twitter and at www.MikeyLoBets.com to the general public. Lines likely will have moved by this point as this is around 4 days after I’ve put them in and notified Patreon. Any bets made from Thursday on (late bets, live bets, etc) will be announced on patreon and the general public at the same time.
Most importantly, you would be supporting me. Please consider joining – your support would mean a lot to me! Join here: www.patreon.com/MikeyLoBets
MikeyLoBets is now on Instagram too! I’m going to try to get some more stuff up there during the season. Please follow @MikeyLoBets! Is Tik Tok next? Not likely….
Okay, that’s enough of all that. Let’s get to the writeups!
Week 0 Official Play Write-Ups
North Texas @ UTEP (+100) (Fan Duel)
We’re 5 weeks away from Week 0. The Summer grind is almost over. Teams playing in Week 0 will be starting training camp next week. We’re almost there!
To put it simply, I have UTEP power rated slightly ahead of North Texas. So getting them as a slight dog at home against a team rated below them has value. But when I dig deeper into the matchup, I think UTEP really matches up well here.
Where I see the biggest advantage is UTEPs ability to run the ball against a depleted North Texas defensive line. The Mean Green are replacing virtually their entire defensive line. They lost 15.5 sacks & 26.5 TFL when the Murphy brothers, Grayson & Gabriel, transferred to UCLA. In total seven different defensive players have left North Texas during the transfer portal. UTEP has a strong offensive line with 3 returning starters (ranked the 4th best OLine in the conference according to Phil Steele) and two RBs on the Doak Walker Award watch list. These RBs, Ronald Awatt & Deion Hankins, combined for over 13K yards in 2021. I think it’s a huge advantage for the UTEP to be able to rotate fresh, effective RBs in the hot El Paso heat and wear down the inexperienced Mean Green defense. I think they’ll be able to control the clock and the time possession which will pay off in the second half. If North Texas sells out to stop the run, UTEP has a 3rd year starting QB in Gavin Hardison. While he did lose his top 2 WR I think he is experienced enough to be effective against a stacked box. He made big strides last season, passing for over 3,000 yards.
On the other side of the ball, North Texas is a team last season when they switched to more of a run heavy team. They have a very good offensive line and running back but I think this is a matchup where that can be neutralized. UTEP has a very strong front 7 with Phil Steele’s #1 DL & #2 LB unit in the conference. I don’t think they will be able to run the ball as effectively against UTEP as they will against some other teams in the conference. If the running games does stall, or they fall behind and UTEP is chewing the clock like I think they will, they are going to have to throw the ball. Their two QBs, Austin Aune & Jace Rudder, actually combined for more INT than TDs in 2021.
One last factor that works to our advantage is that UTEP is doing a really strong marketing push to sell out this game. They are offering reduced price tickets and really trying to generate excitement within the fan base for this game. At last update they we’re already close to selling out the Sun Bowl for this game and had surpassed ticket sales for every home game from last season. That energy in the stadium matters in college football and will work to our advantage in this one.
I see this being a close game in the first half but UTEP will pull away in the second half and start their season with a victory.
Nevada @ New Mexico State (+12.5) (-110) (Fan Duel)
I’ll be quick here since this line is moving as I write this. I’ve already been down on Nevada all offseason as you can see by my first official play of the offseason being an under on Nevada Season Wins. Today things got even worse for them with the news that two keys players suffered “substantial injuries.” Those players are 4-year OL starter & starting S JoJuan Claiborne. They also without DE Breylon Garcia due to academics. These departures, combined with the mass exodus to the transfer portal this offseason, leave the Wolfpack with just 1 returning starter on offense & 3 on defense. The roster is just bare. They shouldn’t be a double digit road favorite to anyone right now (and they might not be for much longer with this line movement). This is not the Nevada team we saw the last few seasons. Not everyone has caught on that yet.
New Mexico State is pretty bad, but I think they’ll match up okay here. They have a new HC in Jerry Kill who had successful stops at Northern Illinois & Minnesota. He’s going to want to run the ball. When I’m on a double-digit underdog I love when it’s a coach that is committed to the run. He’s going to run clock & limit possessions. I don’t think Nevada has the offensive fire power to pull away in a limited possession game. I see this one ending up around 27-23 Nevada.
1H Nevada/New Mexico State Under 24.5 (-110) (Draft Kings)
Definitely a lot of value at 24.5 vs 24. So if this one dips to 24, I’d probably drop a unit.
I’ve talked a lot about these two teams. I wrote about Nevada and pace a few weeks ago. With the change in Head Coach from Jay Norvell to Ken Wilson I expect them to be one of the teams with the biggest changes from 2021 pace to 2022 pace. They are going from an air raid coach to an offensive coach. I expect them to play at least a possession/game slower than they did last season.
On the other side of the ball, I fully expect Jerry Kill to try to run the ball and keep the clock moving. When he took over at TCU last year for Garry Patterson that is exactly what we saw him do, as they averaged just 11.9 possessions/game.
With both teams playing slower, I’d expect both these teams to only get about 6 offensive first half possessions. I think both these coaches are going to go into this game pretty conservative early as they will want to avoid big mistakes early. I don’t think either coach has a lot of confidence in their QB and will want to try to ease them into the game. Both offenses are very limited in explosive potential, so I think points will be harder and slower to come by. I have a hard time envisioning more than 3 TD + 1 FG in the first half of this game.
Z. Bowens (HAW) Over 47.5 Rec Yards (-115) (Draft Kings)
Going a little smaller than usual just because of the uncertainty of Hawaii having a brand new head coach. But by all accounts Chang is going to go with an air raid offense similar to what he ran when he was a player.
Bowens is WR1 on Hawaii and they should throw a ton in this offense and because they will likely be playing from behind or in a close game (it’s unlikely to imagine them winning this game comfortably and taking the air out of the ball)
Official Plays – Week 0
North Texas @ UTEP (+100)
Risking 3.00 Units to win 3.00 Units
Nevada @ New Mexico State (+12.5) (-110)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
1H Nevada/New Mexico St Under 24.5 (-110)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Z. Bowens Over 47.5 (-115) Rec Yards
Risking 2.30 Units to win 2.00 Units
2 thoughts on “Official Plays – Week 0”
Great work and writeup Mike! Looking forward to tailing and supporting you this season!
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