Rather than creating a new post for each futures bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets and subscribe to my Patreon to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.
Last Week Recap
Last Week: 4-3, +2.43 Units
YTD: 6-6, -0.47 Units
We haven’t hit our stride yet, but we are making good bets. Some people might roll their eyes at this, but the reality is that Tulsa -3.5 & Texas St +7.5 we’re good bets, they just didn’t work out. We’ll keep grinding. Early season CFB can be weird. Last year I had an up and down September and then rattled off a ton of winning weeks in October/November. I have significantly downgraded Louisville. What a disappointment that was.
Quick Housekeeping Items
Patreon
MikeyLoBets is on Patreon. Patreon subscribers will get early access to my NCAA Football plays and writeups this year as well as my NFL Pass Attempt model projections & plays. In addition to that, I plan on having 1-2 patreon only live streams a month where we flash bet a college football game (only available on Draft Kings in certain states). I made a ton of money on that last year.
Instagram
MikeyLoBets is now on Instagram too! I’m going to try to get some more stuff up there during the season. Please follow @MikeyLoBets! Is Tik Tok next? Not likely….
Okay, that’s enough of all that. Let’s get to the writeups!
Week 2 Official Play Write-Ups
Houston/Texas Tech Over 52.5 (-110) (Fan Duel)
I won’t spend too much time on this writeup because the line has moved like crazy from the time I posted this on Patreon to where it is now. At this point it’s no longer a recommended play given the significant line movement.
Texas Tech was a team that I projected to have the second largest increase in Drives/Game from their 2021 results. I expected this because of the coaching staff changes they made this offseason which would lead to a new offensive system that would play at a much faster pace. This proved true in Week 1 as we easily won our over bet against Murray State and Texas Tech had 15 total drives in the game (much higher than average). Houston also plays fast. They projected to be 25th in the Nation in Drives/Game. This should be a high possession game with two explosive offenses. It’s very likely this game ends up in the 60’s.
Tennessee/Pittsburgh Over 59.5 (-110) (Fan Duel)
This is another one that has moved a lot since I posted it on Patreon. Tennessee & Pittsburgh both played at a very high pace in 2021 averaging 13+ offensive possessions/game. For all the talk about Pittsburgh HC Pat Narduzzi wanting to run the ball more with the departure of OC Mark Whipple they still had 13 possessions in their opening game of the year vs West Virginia. If we get a 26 possession game, we will only need about 2.3 points/possession to get this over. That seems very likely with these offenses. Pittsburgh’s defense surprisingly struggled some against West Virginia and Tennessee will be a much tougher test for them. I’m not very high on the Tennessee defense, so this one definitely has shootout potential.
Boise State (-17) (-110) @ New Mexico (Draft Kings)
I’m expecting this to be a “get right” game for Boise State. They we’re really disappointing in their opener against Oregon State. Now they play a much weaker opponent and I think they will get a convincing win to get the bad week one taste out of their mouth.
Despite what we saw on Saturday, I still think that Boise has a strong defense. New Mexico is one of my lowest rated offenses in all of the FBS. They were statistically the worst offense in the nation last year. They averaged only 12.2 ppg & 233.7 ypg in 2021. When they played last year it was complete domination by the Boise defense, holding New Mexico to 0 points on only 101 total yards & forcing 2 TO. I think the Boise State defense will come out with their hair on fire and could very possibly keep New Mexico in the single digits in this one.
On offense, Boise actually benched QB Hank Bachmeier in the opener after 2 bad INTs and the backup looked better. Taylen Green went 19-for-28 for 155 yards and the offense moved a lot better under him. Their offensive success rate was only 7% in the first quarter, but after making the switch to Green they improved to about 37% in the last 3 quarters under Green. Still not great, but certainly improved. They will have the size and talent edge in this one and should be able to get right against New Mexico. I see this one ending up around 31-6.
Mississippi State (-8.5) (-110) @ Arizona (Draft Kings)
This was a line that did some crazy stuff. It opened at -14.5 on Fan Duel (which honestly made sense to me). Then Draft Kings opened at -8.5 and I jumped on it right away. It actually dropped to -7 after that and stayed there for awhile giving my patreon subscribers a chance to get a better line than I did. As I type this now on Monday morning it looks like the money is coming in on Mississippi State as I see a -10 on DK, -10.5 on Bookmaker & -11.5 on Fan Duel.
I think people put a little too much stock on Arizona’s win (as a 6.5 point dog) at San Diego State. Yes, they looked good with Washington State transfer QB Jaden De Laura & UTEP transfer WR Jacob Cowan is an absolute stud. But this is will be a big step up in competition for them against an upper half SEC team that I have power ranked in the Top 20. Mississippi State was a team that I had pegged as “better than their record indicated” in 2021 and the early results in 2022 are proving that true.
While Arizona’s win over SDSU was impressive, Mississippi State’s win against Memphis was even more impressive. They dominated on both sides of the ball en route to a 49-23 victory. The success rate tells the story. The Mississippi State offensive success rate was an astounding 61%, while the Memphis offense was held to just a 21% success rate. The Arizona defense will have a much bigger challenge on their hands this week with Mike Leach’s air raid coming to town and they appear to be clicking now in the 3rd year of the system. I think they will be able to score consistently in this game. On the other side of the ball, this Mississippi State defense will be a huge step up in talent & athleticism for the Arizona offense. I think they will be able to limit Cowan which will slow down their entire offense. I like the Bulldogs to pull away and win by 2 TD’s.
Official Plays – Week 2
Houston/Texas Tech Over 52.5 (-110) (Fan Duel)
Risking 4.40 Units to win 4.00 Units
Tennessee/Pittsburgh Over 59.5 (-110) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Boise State (-17) (-110) @ New Mexico (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Mississippi State (-8.5) (-110) @ Arizona (Draft Kings)
Risking 4.40 Units to win 4.00 Units
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