Official Plays – Week 3

Rather than creating a new post for each bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets and subscribe to my Patreon to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.

Last Week Recap

Last Week: 4-1, +10.70 Units
YTD: 10-7, +10.23 Units

Last Week

Can’t be unhappy with that week. The week started with a push on Boise State -17 where I believe we we’re on the right side & should have won (I know some followers got -16.5 so I’m happy about that). But then we caught some breaks on Saturday where the two overs both needed OTs to cash despite us getting some really great lines. The Tennessee/Pitt over was on track to sail over at halftime, but the injury to Kedon Slovis made it a sweat. The Houston/Texas Tech over ended up being the wrong side and we got lucky. Alabama was a no doubt loser, but Air Force & Mississippi State we’re clear right side winners.

September is still a bit of a grind. Some weird things can happen this month and this slate is a bit of a grind with so many big spreads. October/November is where things typically really start rolling. That being said, the results have been solid so far so let’s keep rolling!

Quick Housekeeping Items

Patreon

MikeyLoBets is on Patreon. Patreon subscribers will get early access to my NCAA Football plays and writeups this year as well as my NFL Pass Attempt model projections & plays. In addition to that, I plan on having 1-2 patreon only live streams a month where we flash bet a college football game (only available on Draft Kings in certain states). I made a ton of money on that last year.

Instagram
MikeyLoBets is now on Instagram too! I’m going to try to get some more stuff up there during the season. Please follow @MikeyLoBets! Is Tik Tok next? Not likely….

Okay, that’s enough of all that. Let’s get to the writeups!

Week 3 Official Play Write-Ups Patreon Post

Air Force/Wyoming Under 50.5 (-110) (Draft Kings)       

These are two under teams. Both offenses don’t just take a run first approach, but in many cases a run second & run third approach. Air Force runs the triple options meaning almost every play is a running play which keeps the chains moving & the clock running. They are currently 123rd in the nation in Time/Play. Wyoming is a little faster at 72nd, but that’s because they were playing for behind against Illinois & Tulsa. Craig Bohl is much more comfortable playing at a slower pace. Both teams are predicated on running the ball and playing stronger defense. Air Force doesn’t want to throw much & Wyoming has gotten some really bad QB play from Andrew Peasley. Throw in the fact that this is a night game in Laramie where weather can often be a factor and this looks like an under game to me. When these teams played last year at Air Force we got a 24-14 game. I’m expecting a similar script this Friday night.

Cincinnati (-21) (-110) vs Miami (OH) (Draft Kings) – Played in Cincinnati, OH

I think Miami (OH) is a team that needs to be downgraded significantly with the loss of QB Brett Gabbert Gabbert was a guy that was getting some preseason MAC player of the year love and with him being “out for awhile” according to his head coach, this is a completely different team. They turned to their backup Aveon Smith last week. He’s a red shirt freshmen that got upgraded to the backup spot when AJ Mayer transferred to Arkansas State. The youngster did not look ready at all. They faced a middle of the pack FCS team in Robert Morris and the offense put up a very underwhelming performance with a very poor 28% success rate and only 3 explosive plays (5%). If that’s all you can muster up against Robert Morris then you are in for a world of trouble against Luke Fickell’s Cincinnati defense. Without Gabbert’s NFL arm to generate some explosive plays in the passing game, they are going to have to rely more on a running game that should struggle against a strong Cincinnati team. The Bearcats played a Top 20 Arkansas team tough on the road and then did what you should do against an FCS team last week, destroying Kennesaw State. I think they cover this one easily as the defense really puts the clamps down on the Redhawks.

Western Kentucky (+7) (-110) @ Indiana (Draft Kings)

I actually have WKU power rated to win this game. I’m not very high on Indiana at all. I think they we’re lucky to beat Illinois in Week one. Illinois had a much higher post-game win expectancy and got screwed on a TD being taken away by the refs. Then last week they we’re very impressive against a bad FCS team in Idaho. The defense really struggled with giving up explosive plays in the passing game in 2021 and that is Western Kentucky’s specialty. Even with the loss of QB Bailey Zappe & OC Kittley WKU has still been very explosive through the passing game in their first two games. They had a bye last week so I like them having 2 weeks to prepare for this game. New QB Austin Reed really seemed to get going in Week one against a bad Hawaii team. They haven’t played a strong opponent yet, but WKU runs a strong system and they we’re really high on Reed this offseason (enough so that they named him the starter over Jarret Doege. I like WKU to win a shootout here.

Old Dominion (+8.5) (-110) @ Virginia (Fan Duel)

Virginia looks like a big disappointment. They played terrible last week against Illinois. What was once an explosive offense mustered up just 3 points against an Illinois team that gave up 23 points the week before to Indiana. Despite being +2 in TO they lost the game 24-3 and had an offensive success rate of just 25% with just 4 explosive plays. It doesn’t seem to be working out with the new coaching staff. ODU beat Virginia Tech in week one. While the stats showed they we’re pretty lucky to walk away with a win, they did prove to themselves that they can play with an in-state ACC team. They held VT to just 17 points. I think their defense will similarly be able to hold down UVA. While their offense has been bad so far this season, I’m still a believer in the stuff I wrote when I took them over 4.5 wins. Ali Jennings III is an explosive WR and I think the offense will get better as the season goes on. I think this is a TD or less type game.

Ole Miss @ Georgia Tech TT Under 23.5 (-125) (Draft Kings)

After putting up just 10 points in Week 1 against Clemson, the Georgia Tech offense did not look great against a bad FCS team in Western Carolina. QB Jeff Simms completed less than 50% of his passes and only threw for 100 yards. They we’re actually outgained in this game, but benefited from being +3 in TO. It sounds like the GT is not really buying in to the coaching staff and I think things might end up getting ugly this season for GT. I just have a hard time seeing them score 3 TD + a FG against an SEC team here.

1H Toledo @ Ohio State (-18.5) (Fan Duel)

Ohio State’s offense hasn’t looked great by OSU standards the first 2 weeks of the season. I think it’s very important to Ryan Day that they put an explosive offense game together before starting conference play. This seems like the perfect spot. They will be getting both stud WR back in Jaxon Smith-Njigba & Julian Fleming and are going against a pretty soft MAC defense. With the game under the lights in Columbus I think the Buckeyes put on a show here. I’m sticking with 1st half just because with Wisconsin on deck I could see Day call the dogs off in the second half and I don’t want to get backdoored. I’m expecting a 30-7 type first half.

SMU (+2.5) (-110) @ Maryland (Draft Kings)

Let me start by apologizing about getting a bad line. It’s not often that I’m on the wrong side of line movement, but as I sit here and type this I’m seeing +3.5 available. In retrospect I should have been more patient. If the line moved from +2.5 to +2 that wouldn’t have been much value given up any way. If I’m right about this game though, the points won’t matter. I guess people like Maryland, but I don’t see it. I’ve got SMU winning this game.

This game is expected to be a shootout with a total in the low 70’s. Both offenses are really good, but I think SMU has a strong edge on their defense compared to Maryland’s defense. They added a new DC from Liberty this offseason, Scott Symons, who put together a Top 25 EPA defense last year. His specialty was limiting explosive plays and he was 12th best at that last year at Liberty. That is exactly what he needs to do against Maryland. They are centered and creating turnovers as well. They forced a very experienced veteran QB in North Texas’ Austin Aune into throwing 3 INT and limited them to 10 points. Maryland has a lot of weapons on offense but Taulia Tagovailoa has already thrown a couple of picks this year and I think Symons defense will be able to force him to throw another one or two on Saturday and limit his explosive plays. Just a few stops is really all they’re going to need. With Rhett Lashlee calling plays and Tanner Mordecai at QB it’s very reasonable to expect SMU to be a top 10 offense this year. Maryland’s defense is trash so this is a super juicy matchup for them. They just gave up close to 300 yards passing to a Charlotte team that was playing their 3rd and 4th QB’s and was coming off a loss to FCS William & Mary. I think SMU offense rolls and the defense gets enough stops for them to leave this game with a victory. If you like offense this is the game for you.

Official Plays – Week 3

Air Force/Wyoming Under 50.5 (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Cincinnati (-21) (-110) vs. Miami (OH) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Western Kentucky (+7) (-110) @ Indiana (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Old Dominion (+8.5) (-110) @ Virginia (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Ole Miss @ Georgia Tech TT Under 23.5 (-125) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.75 Units to win 3.00 Units

1H Toledo @ Ohio State (-18.5) (-114) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.42 Units to win 3.00 Units

SMU (+2.5) (-110) @ Maryland (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

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