Please note that all of my plays are posted first on my Patreon. The dates/times that each play was posted is listed below. As you’ll see some of them extend all the way back to May so obviously some of the lines have moved and some of the writeups might be a tad outdated.

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Futures Bankroll

I was planning on investing around 20 units in College Football futures this year but I overshot that a little bit. This is a separate bankroll from what I will be using for the regular season. So say I want to have a bankroll of $5K for the season and play $50/units. Then these 20 Units (in this example $1K) would be in addition to the $5K for the regular season. Let me know if this doesn’t make sense to you.

NCAA Football Futures Official Play Write-Ups

Cincinnati Under 5.5 Wins (-115) (Caesars)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 5/13 @ 10:48 PM

I think this is a tough year for Cincinnati to be making the jump from the G5 to the Big 12 conference. I think this is one of the least talented rosters they’ve had in awhile and with Luke Fickell jumping ship to Wisconsin, I think there will be some growing pains with the new coaching staff. I don’t think the timing of Fickell’s departure was a coincidence as I think he saw this being a tougher year for the Bearcats and I didn’t love the replacement hire of Scott Satterfield. Louisville seemed happy to see him leave… that should tell you all you need to know.

Cincinnati ranks just 123 overall in returning production this year at 42% which is 14th (dead last) in the Big 12. QB Evan Prater was not impressive to me last season and the defense returns only 39.7% of their production and I don’t feel great about their other option of Emory Jones. With the move the Big 12 conference they will face lots of explosive offenses and while I think the defense will be solid I think it will eventually wear down against these offenses because their own offense is going to struggle. You have to be able to score to succeed in the Big 12 conference and I think the Bearcats will struggle in that department for awhile.

One of their winnable conference games (BYU) being on the road on a Friday night is a really tough draw for them. I expect Provo to be insane on a Friday night and that’s a tough game at altitude. I think losing that one puts them in a tough spot the rest of the season. I don’t think they will be able to rebound and make a bowl in Satterfield’s first season.

Texas State Over 4.5 Wins (-120) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.60 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted 5/13 @ 10:48 PM

The Bobcats are going to look a lot different than they have in past years. They brought over GJ Kinne from Incarnate Word. Last year they had a very explosive offense that made it to the Semifinals of the FCS playoffs. He is bringing 7 of the 10 on field coaches with him to Texas State from UIW. This type of continuity amongst the coaching staff is huge and won’t be captured by a lot of the projection systems.

They rank lower in returning production this year which is bumping them down the traditional power rankings. However, they brought over a ton of transfers from UIW (which don’t count in returning production since they are FCS) which will help the team. They’ve also brought over two huge transfer QB’s: TJ Finley (formerly at LSU & Auburn) & Malik Hornsby (Arkansas). My guess is that Finley will end up as the QB and Kinne will figure out creative ways to use Hornsby who is a freak athlete and incredibly fast.

I think they will surprise some teams this year and it will take Sun Belt defenses some time to adjust to Kinne’s offense. They played at the 2nd fastest pace in the FCS last year.

Colorado State Over 4.5 Wins (-115) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted 5/13 @ 10:48 PM

I think CSU will take a step forward in Jay Norvell’s 2nd year with the program. Norvell is one of the best offensive coaches in the Mountain West conference and now had had a year to get settled after his departure from Nevada (where they were one of the best teams in the conference with QB Carson Strong). He brought a ton of young players with him from Nevada last offseason which is now evident by their strong returning production rank: 70.4% (#28 overall/#2 in the Mountain West).

He brings back QB Clay Millen (who he brought with him from Nevada) who got a lot of playing time as a freshman last year (234 attempts). I think he will end up being one of the better QBs in the conference under Norvell’s coaching. I love the continuity with this team bringing back their HC, both Coordinator & starting QB along with several other young starters from last season. I think they will end up being one of the better offenses in the conference.

The schedule is manageable in relatively weak Mountain West conference. Utah Tech & MTSU are both pretty winnable non-con games and there is a possibility they could knock off Washington State or Colorado if they catch some breaks. At the least I think they’ll win 2 of these non-con games, which should set them up nicely to only need to go 3-5 in conference to cash this over.

Liberty Over 8.5 Wins (-110) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 5/21 at 7 PM

Liberty has one of the easiest schedules in the Nation this year with not one P5 opponent and playing their first season in Conference USA which should be the worst conference in the Nation this season. Using Bill Connelly’s current SP+ rankings (which in my opinion are the best publicly available CFB power rankings) and a standard 2.5 points for Home Field Advantage here are the current projected point spreads:

Bowling Green: Liberty -16.5

New Mexico State: Liberty -13.6

@ Buffalo: Liberty -0.8

@ FIU: Liberty -9.1

(Off)

Sam Houston: Liberty -14.2

@ Jacksonville State: Liberty -9.7

MTSU: Liberty -5.1

(Off)

@ WKU: Liberty +4.2

La Tech: Liberty -4.4

ODU: Liberty -11.9

UMass: Liberty -16.2

@ UTEP: Liberty -7.4

As you can see, SP+ currently has them as a favorite in 11 out of 12 games (with the one loss being less than a TD) and a favorite of 7+ points in 8 of their 12 games. It’s a really great schedule.

Yes, they lost HC Hugh Freeze to Auburn but I think they hit a homerun in hiring Jamie Chadwell away from Coastal Carolina. I think they are set up to really dominate the CUSA for several years. Chadwell is one of the better coaches in the Nation in my opinion. Returning QB Salter should be able to run his offense.

Keep in mind while Liberty finished 8-5 last year, they were 8-1 coming off a win at Arkansas before Freeze pretty much bailed on them and the team tanked losing @ UConn, vs Va Tech, vs New Mexico State & vs Toledo (bowl game). Had they not been pissed off at their coach who kind of mailed it in at the end of the season they almost certainly would have been a 10 win team last year (playing a much tougher schedule than they have this year).

One last cool thing about this bet: Conference USA is playing all of their October games on Tuesdays or Wednesdays so we should get plenty of opportunities to watch them this year. I love that CUSA is doing that!

Liberty (+270) to win Conference USA (Fan Duel)
Risking 1.00 Units to win 2.70 Units
Posted: 6/7 at 4:59 PM

Not much to add to my writeup on their over season win total. +270 is too juicy. The favorite is WKU who they play on the road, but they get the #3 (MTSU) & #4 (La Tech) teams in the conference at home this season. I really like their chances to crack the top 2 teams in the CUSA this year to earn a trip to the title game. Right now Liberty on a neutral field vs WKU would be about +1 (and we would have +270). I think Fan Duel has this one priced too high.

Iowa (+270) to win Big Ten West (Fan Duel)
Risking 1.00 Units to win 2.70 Units
Posted: 6/19 at 10:09 AM

I know people aren’t going to be too excited to bet on Iowa because their offense has been so bad year after year, but I think this is a lot of value here.

I think there will be a sense of urgency for Iowa this season. Listening to the Iowa Beat Writer on Bud Elliott’s Cover 3 Summer School episode it really came across like everyone within this program had this season circled as their last chance to really make a run at a Big Ten Championship with divisions going away next season and USC/UCLA joining the conference.

Longtime AD Gary Barta is leaving after this season, meaning that longtime HC Kirk Ferentz may be feeling a little bit hotter seat than usual with somebody new coming in. His son, the OC, has really struggled in that role and actually has it built into his contract that they need to average 25 ppg for him to be retained (on that note: look for me to be betting their TT overs this season against weak teams as I expect them to try to run up the score where they can to meet this goal. Looking at you… Utah State week one)

Iowa is #40 overall in returning production and #3 in the Big Ten. They should have enough coming back on defense to once again have that as a Top 20 unit in the country. The question is can the offense improve from brutal to average? I like the moves they made this offseason and think they can do that. They added QB Cade McNamara from Michigan who actually led the Wolverines to the playoffs two years ago before losing his job to JJ McCarthy. This Iowa team should be very similar to that Michigan team. Lean on your defense and stay within yourself on offense… make the right reads and don’t make mistakes. I think he’s a good fit. TE Erik All is another nice get in the transfer portal for an offense that really knows how to use their TE.

Several other teams in the Big Ten West are breaking in new coaches and don’t have the continuity that I think Iowa has.

Wisconsin (favorite) – I really like the Luke Fickell hire but bringing in Phil Longo as OC (UNC) is a complete overhaul from the system that they have run for years. I think it will take them some time to get the personnel to fit the system. They didn’t look good in the Spring game and QB Tanner Mordecai did put up big numbers at SMU but also struggled when he played P5 opponents. I’m not sold on him completely yet.

Minnesota – Same HC, but new QB and replacing Mo Ibrahim at RB. Also they are the only team to get two of OSU, Michigan, PSU in the Big Ten East crossover games (everyone else only gets one) and they have to play at Iowa and don’t play Wisconsin until the last week of the season (I think Wisconsin is a team that may get better as the season goes on).

Nebraska – New HC/new QB. I think it will take them awhile.

Purdue – New HC/new QB. I don’t think they are a threat to win the division this year.

Illinois – I like the identity that Bielema is building, but they lost multiple NFL defenders and the RB that they leaned so heavily on. They have to play Iowa in Kinnick as well.

Northwestern – It pains me to say it as a fan, but they just don’t have the horses to compete this year.

I like the value at +270. I think they have as good a chance as anyone here.

Jacksonville State Over 4.5 Wins (+112) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.00 Units to win 3.36 Units
Posted: 6/20 @ 3:54 PM

We saw last year with James Madison that teams can make the FCS to FBS jump without being overwhelmed. I think Jacksonville State is another team poised to hit the ground running relatively well in their first season at the FBS level. Like JMU, this is another strong FCS program. They haven’t been quite as dominant as JMU, but they don’t have to be. They are coming off a 9-2 (5-0) season and 2-years ago they beat Florida State in Tallahaase.

They have a nice soft landing spot joining Conference USA. I wrote about how weak that conference is in my Liberty writeup and honestly Jacksonville State’s talent can hang in that conference. They only play one Power 5 opponent, so the schedule is very favorable. I have them as a favorite or very slight underdog in 7 games this year: UTEP, ETSU (FCS), Eastern Michigan, @ Sam Houston (another team making the jump from FCS), @ FIU, La Tech, @ New Mexico State. Obviously that doesn’t mean they will win all 7 but sometimes with low win totals there are tons of games that teams have no chance of winning. That’s not really the case here. Besides maybe at Coastal Carolina there aren’t really any games on their schedule I would say they have no shot in. WKU & Liberty will be tricky but they are both at home. The point is, even for a team making the jump from FCS, this schedule is far from overwhelming. I think this line is a win low because of the FCS factor. And getting plus money is a nice bonus.

Their offense should be really good this season. They have a 7th year QB (not a typo) in Zion Webb who just got his waiver officially approved this week. I was waiting on that news before firing on this play. He should be good for them in this Rich Rodriguez offense. They also have another QB, Logan Smothers, who transferred from Nebraska. So Rich Rod will have options. I expect this offense to put up a lot of points in the CUSA this year.

LSU to Win the National Championship (+1500) (Draft Kings)
Risking 1.00 Units to win 15.00 Units
Posted: 7/4 @ 7:59 PM

This is a collab play with my good friend DuckyBets. Follow him on Twitter @Ducky_Bets or on Patreon at patreon.com/DuckPond

It’s fun to have a National Championship future to root for throughout the season. I think LSU is the best value on the board. If my life depended on winning this bet, I would play Georgia but at only +215 I don’t want to play that on a National Championship future.

LSU is one of only about 10-12 teams that I think have enough talent to win a CFB National Championship. 71% of last 4 recruiting classes are blue chip recruits (this is 6th in the country behind only Alabama, OSU, Georgia, Texas A&M & Clemson).

They are loaded with talent and have an experienced QB in Jayden Daniels and a super talented backup in Garrett Nussmeier. Brian Kelly is one of the best coaches in the country and I think they have a path in the SEC West this year. I’m down on Alabama this year with the new coordinators and the QB position not looking very great.

I’ll take a shot on this one at +1500.

Cade Klubnik (CLEM) Over 19.5 Regular Season Passing TD (-112) (Fan Duel)
Risking 2.24 Units to win 2.00 Units
Posted: 7/12 @ 3:50 PM

Cade Klubnik (CLEM) Over 2,725.5 Regular Season Passing Yards (-112) (Fan Duel)
Risking 2.24 Units to win 2.00 Units
Posted: 7/12 @ 3:50 PM

This feels like a slam. Barring an injury (which is unpredictable) this feels like the absolute floor for Klubnik in his first season as Clemson QB1.

Last year DJ U surpassed this TD mark (22) and came close on yards (2,521) despite having a pretty poor season, losing some playing time to Klubnik (100 attempts) & playing under a much worse OC in Brendan Streeter.

Dabo fired Streeter after one season and brought in Garrett Riley as OC from TCU (2022) & SMU (2021). This offense will look a ton different under Riley.

As a point of comparison, Riley’s QB last year at TCU Max Duggan sailed over these lines: 3,078 Regular Season Yards & 29 TD and saw a jump from 2,048 yards & 16 TD the prior year (before Riley). See that jump?

Riley’s QB at SMU in 2021, Tanner Mordecai, threw for 3,629 yards & 39 TD.

In this offense, Klubnik will have every opportunity to sail past these lines. He’s a former 5-star recruit with plenty of talent. I’ll take the overs.

Georgia Southern Over 5.5 Wins (-170) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.40 Units to win 2.00 Units
Posted: 7/25 @ 2:58 PM

I’ll be quick since this line is moving today. I think this offense has the potential to be really good in the Sun Belt. They performed well last season under Clay Helton, but I think the addition of QB Davis Brinn from Tulsa in the transfer portal to replace Kyle Van Trease can help take this offense to a new level. Van Trease was good but was one of the highest QBs in PFF’s turnover worthy plays. Brinn got abused by his poor OL at Tulsa, but the Georgia Southern OLine unit should be a lot better for him (ranked 3rd in the Sun Belt by CFB Winning Edge). He’s got some good skill players to work with in White, Hood & Burgess. The defense is still a concern, but I think the schedule shakes out nicely for this team to get to bowl eligibility. They should go 2-2 at worst in the non-con but 3-1 is a possibility. Then in the Sun Belt they get 4 winnable home games in Coastal Carolina, ULM, Georgia State & ODU. They could be favored in all 4 of those games and will definitely be favored in at least 3. The road games are far from sure losses (JMU, Texas State, Marshall, App State). They should get one of those. So win 2 non-con games (3 is possible), 3 of the home conference games (4 is possible) & 1 of the road conference games (2+ is possible) and you’re there.

Official Plays – NCAA Football Futures

Cincinnati Under 5.5 Wins (-115) (Caesars)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units

Texas State Over 4.5 Wins (-120) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.60 Units to win 3.00 Units

Colorado State Over 4.5 Wins (-115) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units

Jacksonville State Over 4.5 Wins (+112) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.00 Units to win 3.36 Units

Liberty Over 8.5 Wins (-110) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Liberty (+270) to win Conference USA (Fan Duel)
Risking 1.00 Units to win 2.70 Units

Georgia Southern Over 5.5 Wins (-170) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.40 Units to win 2.00 Units

Iowa (+270) to win Big Ten West (Fan Duel)
Risking 1.00 Units to win 2.70 Units

Cade Klubnik (CLEM) Over 19.5 Regular Season Passing TD (-112) (Fan Duel)
Risking 2.24 Units to win 2.00 Units

Cade Klubnik (CLEM) Over 2,725.5 Regular Season Passing Yards (-112) (Fan Duel)
Risking 2.24 Units to win 2.00 Units

LSU to Win the National Championship (+1500) (Draft Kings)
Risking 1.00 Units to win 15.00 Units