XFL Week 6 – Official Plays

Last Week

Week 5: 1-2, -2.40 Units
YTD: 8-4, +7.36 Units

First losing week since the opening week. We had our 8 game winning streak snapped. It’s never fun losing, but it does happen. We’re still in great shape at the halfway point of the season being +7.36 Units in the regular season and having a +650 future on a team that is 5-0.

I was very surprised by the result in the STL game. I thought they were pretty evenly matched with DC and being at home would give them the edge. But they were beat pretty good, especially up front. DC keeps getting better each week.

San Antonio brought in a new OC during the week (after I had made my bet) and honestly he looked worse than the guy they just fired. They kept running very similar plays in the second half and the Arlington defense caught on and was all over it. I think there is a huge gap in this league between the top 4 teams (DC, Seattle, STL, Houston) and the bottom 4 teams (Arlington, San Antonio, Vegas, Orlando).

Official Plays – XFL Week 6

Please Note: Lines may have moved. To get my plays the moment I make them, please subscribe to my Patreon

Fan Duel 2-Line Parlay (+107)
Seattle (-360) @ Orlando
St. Louis (-160) @ Vegas
Risking 2.00 Units to win 2.14 Units

As I stated in my recap of last week’s plays, there appears to be a big gap between the top 4 teams (DC, Seattle, St. Louis, Houston) & the bottom 4 teams (Arlington, San Antonio, Vegas, Orlando).

Seattle gets an extra 2 days to prepare having played on Thursday night. They have the #1 offense in the league in terms of YPP and are going against a very weak Orlando defense that has allowed the most ppg (30.4) & the second most YPP (5.4) in the league. The only thing that has stopped the Seattle offense has been TOs but the Orlando defense has averaged less than one takeaway per game so I don’t think that will kill us. Even if they get the occasional turnover, the other drives should be really good for the Seattle offense.

Orlando did turn to a new QB last week who did play well, but he did it against Vegas which is the other really bad defense in this league. Now he has to go up against the Seattle defense that is #1 in the league in defensive YPP. And since we’re just playing the moneyline, rather than laying the -8.5, we should be fine even if he has his occasional moments.

In the second leg, St. Louis really needs this game after dropping a home game to DC last week. The battle for the 2nd (and final) playoff spot in the North division is looking to be pretty tight between STL & SEA and they can’t drop this game against a 1-4 team. They should come in motivated and both teams will be on equal rest.

The Vegas defense has given up 30+ points in the last 3 games and is #7 in the league in ppg and #8 in ypg. AJ McCarron and the St. Louis offense should be able to move it on these guys consistently.

Luis Perez started again last week for the Vegas in place of an injured Brett Hundley. At this time I’m not sure who the QB will be this weekend, but either way I expect them to have a hard time matching the STL offense score for score.

Houston @ DC (-2.5) (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 2.20 Units to win 2.00 Units

I was super impressed with the way DC went into the Dome on Saturday night and really dominated the Battlehawks. They are now 5-0 and seem to be getting better each week. They have a really passionate fan base and strong HFA which should be on full display as they host an XFL Monday Night Football game.

I faded Houston last week against Seattle citing that I thought their stats were inflated because they had played a really easy schedule the first 4 weeks. I was on the right side of this one as they lost by 7 (and trailed by two scores until a very late TD) despite forcing 4 turnovers.

I’m expecting a similar outcome this week as they have to play a stronger team in DC. The strength of the Houston defense has been their ability to get heat on the QB, currently ranking #1 in the league with 3.8 sacks/game. But I expect the DC protection to be able to slow that pass rush down as they have allowed a league best 1.0 sacks/game. They have two mobile QBs that have the ability to buy time and pick up yards via the scramble. The DC running attack looked incredible last week and I think they will be able to pick up where they left off this week.

Official Card – XFL Week 6

Fan Duel 2-Line Parlay (+107)
Seattle (-360) @ Orlando
St. Louis (-160) @ Vegas
Risking 2.00 Units to win 2.14 Units

Houston @ DC (-2.5) (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 2.20 Units to win 2.00 Units

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