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Last Week Recap

Week 2: 5-4, +0.00 Units
YTD: 17-12, (58.6%), +5.33 Units

The four losses were obvious losses. Bad reads. The wins were relatively sweat free except for Sims. Overall a true break even week. 58.6% through 29 plays in a pace I’m very happy with to start the season.

NCAA Football Week 3 Official Play Write-Ups

We already cashed out first play of the week last night on a Memphis moneyline live play on Thursday night. Nice to start the week off with a win.

Wake Forest/Old Dominion Over 59 (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 9/11 @ 6:22 AM

The ODU offense is completely different from what we saw from them last season. I had a RSW over bet on them and it was like pulling teeth to get them to score. This year’s offense is completely different. They brought over their OC and QB from Fordham and are playing at a much faster pace. They put up 17 points in their opener at Virginia Tech but increased to 38 points for Louisiana last week. Their defense has struggled though giving up 36 & 31 points in both games.

The Wake Forest offense is always humming under Coach Clawson. They scored 37 vs Elon & 36 last week vs an SEC opponent in Vanderbilt. I definitely expect them to get their numbers against this weaker ODU defense. With both teams being upper tier pace teams, I see plenty of offense here. I see this one as a 41-24 type game.

Jamari Thrash (LOU) Over 77.5 Rec Yds (-115) vs IU (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 9/14 @ 7:26 PM

HC Jeff Brohm really likes to zero in on one guy in the passing game and throw the ball to that guy a ton. At Purdue we saw that last year with Charlie Jones & prior to that with David Bell. He feeds his stud. This year his stud appears to be Jamari Thrash. He went for 7 catches and 88 yards in the opener vs GT and had a 73-yard TD the next week against FCS Murray State. I think it is likely that Brohm will feed Thrash in this one and he has the explosiveness to turn anything into a big play. This game is being played indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium so there will be no weather concerns and a fast turf. I could see Thrash topping 100 in this one.

Davis Brin (GASO) Over 249.5 Pass Yds (-114) @ WISC (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.42 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 9/14 @ 7:26 PM

This Wisconsin defense didn’t look great last week in the 31-22 loss to Washington State. The Badgers are playing at a faster tempo this year under new OC Phil Longo which should mean more possessions for their opponents. They are a favorite in this game, but Georgia Southern has a nice offense that airs the ball out and plays at a pretty fast tempo. With them chasing points throughout the game and both teams playing pretty quickly, I like Brin’s chances to put up stats in the game. He played really well at Tulsa last season despite having big time protection issues from his OL  and put together a 318 yard performance in a 49-35 win vs UAB last week. This offense will be capable of moving the ball in this one.

Iowa State (-3) (-110) @ Ohio (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 9/13 @ 7:31 AM

Iowa State’s roster took a hit this offseason when they lost several key players, including their starting QB, to a gambling suspension. But they’ve now got two games under their belt with their current roster and still have a talent advantage (in my opinion) in this game over a MAC opponent.

Ohio has a good QB in Kurtis Rourke but he’s been battling injuries this season after a season-ending injury last season and still seems kind of banged up. They’ve also got some receivers dealing with some injury issues as well. The Iowa State defense has looked pretty strong this year and I don’t think the Bobcats are going to be able to generate a lot of offense against them.

The Iowa State offense hasn’t been good this season but I think they will be able to find enough in this one. I think they should be able to run the ball against their offensive line and lean on this MAC defensive line a little bit. They were able to put up 43 points against this Ohio team last season in Ames and while I don’t expect that much again I do think the high 20’s will be enough.

I’ll say Iowa State 27, Ohio 20

Western Kentucky @ Ohio State TT Over 24.5 (-105) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.15 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 9/14 @ 11:51 AM

With Notre Dame on deck next week this feels like a game where Ryan Day will really want to get the offense humming. They started slow in week one vs Indiana and had an FCS game last week so I think Day will really want to use this game to get McCord and his NFL Receivers going. I’ve decided to go first half rather than full game, because I could see them calling the dogs off earlier than usual with a big game on deck for next week.

Last week OSU had 6 first half possessions and scored 4 TDs. Western Kentucky typically plays pretty quickly. As a result that could lead to an extra possession in the 1^st half for the Buckeyes. In the WKU opener their opponent actually had 8 first possessions. I like OSU to score 4 TD in 6 possessions, but if the pace can give them a 7^th possession then I really like it.

If you’ll remember last year OSU also came out of the gates a little slowly in week one scoring only 21 points in their opening game vs ND. It was Week 3 where they really started to ramp up the offense and hit their stride scoring 42 1^st half points & 77 total points vs Toledo. I think once again Week 3 will be the coming out party for the OSU offense in 2023.

Tennessee @ Florida (+8.5) (-110) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 9/10 @ 12:04 PM

This is an enormous game for Billy Napier and the Florida Gators. He really needs this game or the hot seat rumors are going to heat up in a big way. I don’t think they’re quite as bad as people think. Yes they lost to Utah without Rising & Kithue but Utah is an incredibly tough place to play and they actually outgained them 346-270. What killed them were the dumb mistakes (like having 2 players wearing the same number on punt return) and I’m hopeful they’ve gotten those cleaned up. They dominated FCS McNeese this weekend 49-7 and outgained them 560-112.

I love backing home underdog SEC teams in night games. The atmosphere is just crazy and I expect the swamp to be no different. In the last two seasons SEC home dogs are 19-8 (70.3%) ATS in night games and last season they went 10-3-1 (76.9%) ATS. Lots of trends out there hold no weight with me, but this one does.

It will be interesting to see how Joe Milton handles this raucous environment. He’s never started a true road game with fans (eliminating 2020 at Michigan) besides Vanderbilt last season. This will be a hostile environment and for a player with a history of accuracy issues you wonder how he will respond.

I’ve got Florida keeping this one close enough. I’ll call it a 31-28 game.

Official Plays – Week 3

Wake Forest/Old Dominion Over 59 (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Jamari Thrash (LOU) Over 77.5 Rec Yds (-115) vs IU (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Davis Brin (GASO) Over 249.5 (-114) Pass Yds @ WISC (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.42 Units to win 3.00 Units

Iowa State (-3) (-110) @ Ohio (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Western Kentucky @ Ohio State TT Over 24.5 (-105) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.15 Units to win 3.00 Units

Tennessee @ Florida (+8.5) (-110) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units