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Last Week Recap

Week 3: 6-3, +8.46 Units
YTD: 23-15, (60.5%), +13.79 Units

A really nice week. The wins were all pretty much sure thing wins (Memphis was a bit of a sweat but it shouldn’t have been). The props both cashed in the first half. With the losses, the Army/UTSA under was a bad read. Wake Forest messed around too much in the 1st half for that over. Iowa State actually had a post game win expectancy over 50% per Bill Connelly and had a missed FG that might have actually been good? Either way 6-3 feels right for this week.

Overall I’m very pleased with the start of the season. Still hitting 60% after 38 plays is something I’m very happy with.

NCAA Football Week 4 Official Play Write-Ups

Hudson Card (PUR) Over 257.5 Pass Yds (-115) vs WIS (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 9/21 @ 10:22 AM

We were on the opposing underdog QB vs Wisconsin angle last week with Davis Brin and he cashed in the first half. Once again I think this line is shorter than it should be as both offenses will probably look to go tempo and Wisconsin’s defense has been giving up a lot of yards (we saw Brin pass for over 380 last week). Hudson Card is coming off a game where he threw for 323 yards on 46 attempts in a losing effort to Syracuse. Purdue hasn’t had a lot of success running the ball yet this season and I would expect to see them go to the air a lot in this one.

Wisconsin/Purdue Over 53.5 (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 9/21 @ 10:31 AM

Purdue’s defense hasn’t been very good – allowing 39 points to G5 Fresno State and 35 points to Syracuse. Wisconsin has a new look offense under Phil Longo and has gone for 35+ in 2 of their 3 games. I expect both teams to play at an above average tempo in this one and I think the Wisconsin offense will be able to get theirs against this Purdue defense. On the flip side, the Wisconsin defense has looked a little leaky this season. They surrendered 31 points in a losing effort to Washington State and last week only allowed 14 to Georgia Southern but that number is misleading. They gave up 455 total yards but were bailed out by 6 Georgia Southern TO’s. I would expect this Purdue offense to be able to score a good amount as well. I see this one as a 34-27 type game.

Florida State (-1.5) (-110) @ Clemson (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 9/17 @ 12:22 PM

A lot of people are down on Florida State after only beating Boston College by 2 points last week, but I think there a lot of things to consider here:

• Several players on the FSU team had the flu. They were literally warming up with masks on. It sounds like things are better in the locker room now.
• It was a look ahead spot for FSU with Clemson on deck
• It was the red bandana game for BC (highly motivated) and it was a bad weather game with strong winds
• FSU still led the game 31-10 late before a couple turnovers turned the game

I think Florida State is a lot closer to the team we saw against LSU than the team we saw against Boston College. I still have concerns about Clemson, particularly their offense and the ability of their wide receivers to win their matchups. They haven’t played a P5 team since losing to Duke outright on Labor Day. I just think Florida State is the better team here and they haven’t opened it up much since the opener against LSU. They should get Keon Coleman a lot more involved again in this one and utilize Jordan Travis as a runner as they’ll need that extra blocker going against this Clemson D-Line. I’ll go with a 7-point FSU win.

Jordan Travis (FSU) Over 32.5 (-110) Rush Yds @ CLEM (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 9/20 @ 5:55 PM

There seems to be a trend under Mike Norvell that he runs his QB more in the big games. Last year he ran 8 times vs LSU, 6 vs WF, 7 vs NCST, 14 vs CLEM, 7 vs MIA, 15 vs Florida & 7 vs OU (average of 9.14) while averaging only 3 rushes/game in the other 6 games. It makes sense that he doesn’t want to see his QB take hits in easy games but will run him when he needs to. I think Norvell knows he is going to have to run Travis in this game against this Clemson DLine. He’ll need the advantage of having the extra man in the running game because they do have a strong DL. Last year he doubled this total vs Clemson rushing for 64 yards. Clemson has shown some struggles stopping the QB run allowing 98 yards on the ground in Week 1 to Duke QB Riley Leonard.

Keon Coleman (FSU) Over 64.5 Rec Yds (-115) @ CLEM (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 9/21 @ 10:22 AM

I think we are getting Coleman at a discounted line here because he’s only had 3 receptions the last two weeks vs Southern Miss & BC. I think those were clear examples of FSU spreading the ball around to keep their other guys happy in winnable games, but with this being a big game I definitely expect them to go back to Coleman. He went for 9 receptions and 122 yards with 3 TD in the opener vs LSU and had an insane contested catch rate last season. It’s a big game so you need to target your best player. Clemson’s corners are good which may sound like a negative for this bet, but I kind of like that for a guy like Coleman. He understands that there are millions of dollars to be made in this game because this is the game that NFL scouts will be spend a lot of time reviewing come NFL draft season. I have a hard time seeing him stay under 65 in this one.

SMU (+7) (-110) @ TCU (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 9/17 @ 12:41 PM

I’m looking forward to this one as the Iron Skillet game is always entertaining. I have serious concerns about the TCU secondary after we saw Colorado light them up for 510 yards through the air in Week 1. Since then they’ve played an FCS team and a Houston team that has quit on their coach, so they haven’t been tested much at all. I think QB Preston Stone will be able to exploit that unit this week and Rhett Lashlee always has a strong offensive game plan. I think this will be a fun game that I expect to be a one possession game either way. I see it as a 33-30 type game. Should be fun!

Mar’Keise Irving (ORE) Over 21.5 Rec Yds (-130) vs COL (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.90 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 9/21 @ 10:22 AM

Colorado seems to be dropping a lot of guys back in coverage this season in an effort to avoid the deep play. We saw Colorado State eat them up last week with lots of short passes and crossing routes. Bo Nix seems to be playing very patient ball this season with 0 turnover worthy plays and an average depth of target of only 6.4 this season per PFF (down from 7.4 last season and 9.0 in 2021 with Auburn). I think he will be happy to just take what the Colorado defense gives him which should be multiple dump offs to Irving out of the backfield. Irving went for 7 receptions and 50 yards in the one P5 game of the season vs Texas Tech and topped this number in 6 of the last 7 regular season games last year.

Official Plays – Week 4

Hudson Card (PUR) Over 257.5 Pass Yds (-115) vs WIS (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units

Wisconsin/Purdue Over 53.5 (-110)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Florida State (-1.5) (-110) @ Clemson (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Jordan Travis (FSU) Over 32.5 (-110) Rush Yds @ CLEM (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Keon Coleman (FSU) Over 64.5 Rec Yds (-115) @ CLEM (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units

SMU (+7) (-110) @ TCU (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Mar’Keise Irving (ORE) Over 21.5 Rec Yds (-130) vs COL (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.90 Units to win 3.00 Units