I’m going to try something new this week (what’s that… win a bet?). Rather than creating a new post for each bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.
Last Week Recap
Last Week: 0-1, -2.24 Units
Tarleton State 43 @ New Mexico State 17
Wow – what a misread. I had New Mexico State moneyline at -112 against Tarleton State. Tarleton State had only played one game above the DII level and was without 5 offensive starters in this game due to Covid-19 including their QB and best WR, yet they ran away with this game. In retrospect I guess I didn’t account enough for New Mexico State’s long layoff and the fact that their Coach is treating these games like Spring practice rather than games he wants to win. Lesson learned. You better believe I’ll be keeping my eye on a New Mexico State season win total under this Fall and might lay 70 points when they play Alabama this Fall =)
In the words of legendary Northwestern Head Coach Pat Fitzgerald, after a loss like this we just need to “Flush it” and move on,
Week 3: Spring FCS
North Dakota State (-16) (-108) @ Southern Illinois
In the Bearded Bettors discord last weekend I referred to North Dakota State as “the Alabama of the FCS.” It was the highest compliment I could think to pay their program, but honestly it might not be strong enough. NDSU has won 8 FCS Championships in the last 9 seasons, with 2016 being the only year they haven’t walked away with the trophy.
They opened their Spring season with a convincing 25-7 win this Sunday vs Youngstown State. Their opponent, Southern Illinois, is coming off a very disappointing 44-21 Week 2 loss at North Dakota.
In my eyes, handicapping this game comes down to the fact that one team is going to be able to run the ball very well while the other team is going to have a really hard time running the ball. North Dakota State has proven they can run the ball as the strength of their team is once again their offensive line. In their Fall “Trey Lance showcase” game against Central Arkansas they ran for 46-275-6.0. Last week, in their Spring opener against Youngtown State they ran for 40-243-6.1. On the other hand, SIU has struggled against the run allowing SE Missouri State to rush for 46-281-6.1 in their lone Fall game and then allowing more of the same last week @ North Dakota allowing 39-229-5.9.
It’s usually a recipe for disaster when you are allowing 6 yards per rush and are going up against an opponent averaging 6 yards a rush. I don’t think NDSU will have any problem getting the running game going, which should also open up the passing game for new QB Zeb Noland (former ISU Cyclone). They were really conservative with him last week only letting him throw 18 passes. I think they will make it a point to get him going this week which will help to ensure the Bison get enough points to secure the cover.
On the other side of the ball, it looks like the complete opposite. North Dakota State has a great defense that is nasty against the run. Central Arkansas only rushed for 25-71-2.8 against them in the Fall and then Youngstown State did even worse last week rushing for 34-51-1.5. Southern Illinois couldn’t get their running game going last week only rushing for 35-90-2.6 at North Dakota. I don’t think they are going to be able to run the ball, which is going to force them into a lot of 3rd and longs which could lead to turnovers. SIU turned the ball over 5 times last week and their starting QB, Kare Lyles, got knocked out of the game. He is questionable for this Saturday with a rib injury. It is being reported that he wants to play, but I don’t know how effective he will be and this isn’t a defense you want to go up against at any less than 100%.
I see North Dakota State establishing themselves as the more physical team in the first half and then the floodgates open in the second half as they continue to wear down the Salukis and secure the cover.
Official Plays – Week 3 Spring FCS
North Dakota State (-16) (-108) @ Southern Illinois (Bookmaker)
Risking 2.16 to win 2.00