Rather than creating a new post for each bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.

Last Week Recap

Last Week: 0-1, -2.16 Units
Southern Illinois @ North Dakota State (-16) (-108): L, -2.16 Units

If you’re keeping score at home (or you’ve checked my tracking page), I’m 0-2 since I started this blog and I’ve lost both bets by a combined 5,000 points (slight exaggeration.) North Dakota State hadn’t lost a game in years until I bet them…. Then they get crushed by the Salukis. Oh well, we learn from it and move on. It will be interesting to see if NDSU bounces back this week. I’m going to sit back and watch them this week.

Week 4: Spring FCS

If you follow me on Twitter, you already know that my first official play is a 7-point teaser.

With Football teasers, I always look to cross key numbers like 3, 4, and 7. Fortunately with this teaser I was able to cross all 3 of those numbers on both legs, moving North Dakota from -7.5 to -0.5 and moving Villanova from -9.5 to -2.5. Let’s briefly dig into both legs:

South Dakota @ North Dakota (-0.5) (Thursday)

North Dakota is the talk of the FCS right now having beaten #7 Illinois State and #3 South Dakota State in consecutive weeks much to the surprise of just about everyone. It seemed like they benefitted from turnover luck in Week one against ISU, but the turnover battle was more normal last week and they still beat a very good Jackrabbit team. I was particularly impressed with the way they shut down Pierre Strong and the SDSU running game down. Many consider Strong to be the best running back in the FCS and North Dakota limited the SDSU ground game to 29-96-3.7. This will be their 3^rd home game in a row and I think that is a big deal considering it is a short week and the momentum they have generated in the first two weeks.

South Dakota has only played one game, an impressive 27-20 win at Illinois State last week. However I think that score is a little misleading. They were outgained by 147 yards in this game but benefitted from a +6 turnover margin! I’ve heard that the weather impacted the practice schedule for Illinois State, which would make sense considering they turned the ball over 7 times! I don’t believe South Dakota will be so lucky this time.

It is the second leg of back-to-back road games for them. Throw in a short week and a true freshman QB and I think that is reason for concern. By the time they got home and rested from Illinois, they only had a few days of practice before getting back on the bus to go play again. Their offense was not particularly impressive in week one, only rushing for 2.1 yards/carry and allowing 5 sacks. Considering they didn’t have much time this week to correct things, I like North Dakota tonight.

Villanova (-2.5) @ Stony Brook

I won’t have many stats to include in this write-up since this is the first game for both teams. Villanova is coming into this game with a #5 ranking and plenty of optimism thanks to their returning firepower on offense. I think with the chaos in the MVC (NDSU, SDSU, and UNI all already have 1 loss) and with key teams like Montana and Montana State opting out of the Big Sky, Villanova sees how wide open the FCS is this year. Why not them?

Villanova has a loaded roster, highlighted by returning QB Daniel Smith and RB Justin Covington. Smith is a dual threat QB. In 2019 he was 236-396 for 3,274 yards, 35 TD and 10 INT through the air, while also rushing 84 times for 457 yards and 12 TD on the ground. Covington ran the ball 90 times for 727 yards coming out to a whopping 8.1 yards per carry!

Stony Brook has their QB coming back to in Tyquell Fields, but his 2019 stats weren’t impressive and Stony Brook limped to the finish line losing their last 4 games in 2019. I think their offense won’t quite be able to keep up with a Villanova offense that averaged 37 points per game and 455 yards per game in 2019 and the Wildcats end up covering the -2.5.

Incarnate Word (-16.5) (-113) @ Lamar (DraftKings)

I wrote about how inexperienced Lamar was a couple weeks ago when I was planning on fading them against Northwestern State before that game was cancelled. So how did this young Lamar squad end up doing in their first game last week? Well, not great…. They lost 55-0 at Nicholls. The stats are even uglier than that. They were outgained by 548 yards and 25 first downs. On offense they ran the ball 33 times for 37 yards (1.1 ypc) and despite being down by so many points they still only passed the ball 14 times, completing 11 for 54 yards.

On defense they allowed 639 total yards, including 392 on the ground (8.2 ypc) against Nicholls! This team just screams fade right now. It’s a work in progress for Lamar and I don’t think they’re going to be able to turn it around in one week.

Incarnate Word had a nice showing in their first game last week beating a solid McNeese State team 48-20 in a game they lead 31-3 at halftime. They put up 518 yards of total offense including 26-209-8.0 on the ground. So we’re betting on a team that rushed for 8.0 ypc last week going against a defense that allowed 8.2 ypc last week. This game screams blow out. If it ends up going the way of NDSU-SIU last week, so be it, but when I see that kind of advantage on the ground I’m going to take it. Incarnate Word -16.5 for me!

Official Plays – Week 4 Spring FCS

7-Point Teaser (-120) (Bookmaker)
South Dakota @ North Dakota (-0.5) (Thursday)
Villanova (-2.5) @ Stony Brook (Saturday)
Risking 2.40 to win 2.00

Incarnate Word (-16.5) (-113) @ Lamar (DraftKings)
Risking 3.39 to win 3.00