Week 6 Spring FCS Official Plays

Rather than creating a new post for each bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.

Last Week Recap

Last Week: 1-0, +2.00 Units

Lamar/McNeese State Over 46.5

I got a little lucky here but I’m not going to apologize for that. We were on pace to hit at halftime with a 13-13 score, but things slowed down considerably in the 3rd quarter. What’s tough about Lamar is they run the ball so much (more on that later) but each team managed one TD in the second half to bring the score to 20-20 and give us a shot in OT.

McNeese got the ball first and got a TD and I was fired up in my Uber to celebrate St. Patty’s day, but a missed XP had us stuck at 26-20 and I couldn’t believe my bad luck. Fortunately Lamar converted a 4th down in their possession and ended up punching in a TD (with a made XP… how bout that) to give them a 27-26 win and give me my 3rd win in a row!

Week 6: Spring FCS

Sam Houston State (-28) (-113) @ Lamar (Bookmaker)

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Let me just start with this…. Lamar opened their season with a 55-0 loss at Nicholls. Last week Sam Houston State beat Nicholls 71-17. I know the transitive property has burned sports handicappers plenty of times, but a 109 point difference needs to count for something.

I’ve had wagers on Lamar’s game the last two weeks and I feel like I have a pretty good feel for them. They run the ball a ton. It’s not quite triple option system run-pass splits, but it’s not that far off either. They have run the ball 146 times in 3 games vs. only 52 pass attempts. Keep in mind they’ve gotten crushed in 2 of those games and they’re still pounding the run even when they’re behind. It’s not like they’re great at it either, only averaging 3.1 yards/rush and they haven’t had a game yet where they’ve averaged better than 3.8 yards/rush.

Sam Houston is pretty stout against the run. In their opener, SE Louisiana put up 38 points against them but they got their yards through the air not on the ground. SE Louisiana only rushed for 30-74-2.5 and then Nicholls didn’t do much better last week rushing for 37-118-3.2. If you’re worried about the small sample size, when you look back to 2019 Sam Houston State was still solid against the run only giving up 2.2 yards/rush including a stellar effort against Lamar where they held them to 49-34-0.7 on the ground! From what I’ve seen, Lamar just doesn’t have what it takes to pass the ball effectively against anyone so they have to rely on the run. The numbers would lead you to believe that they won’t be able to run the ball either in this game.

On offense, Sam Houston State is a wagon. There are plenty of stats I can throw at you but let’s just go with the basics: points and yards. In two games this season they scored 43 points and had 672 yards of total offense against SE Louisiana and scored 71 points and had 556 yards of total offense against Nicholls. Lamar’s defense has struggled against everyone but McNeese (who could be the worst team in the Southland) giving up 639 yards to Nicholls and 626 yards to Incarnate Word.

This one has all the making of a bloodbath. We don’t know how many bids the Southland will get into the playoffs, so style points will matter to Sam Houston State in the event they don’t get the auto bid. They showed last week they had no problem running the score up in their 71-17 win, so let’s hope for more of the same this week!

SE Louisiana @ Incarnate Word (+3) (-105) (Bookmaker)

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I’m 1-0 on Incarnate Word so far this year with a win when they covered the big number at Lamar. I like what I’ve seen from them, especially on offense. They’re 2-0 so far this year with two 20+ point road wins to open the season. Granted they were against the two bottom teams in the conference, but you can only play who is on your schedule. This will be their home opener and a huge game to establish themselves as an at large bid candidate if they are unable to beat Sam Houston State later in the year.

I really like UIW’s true freshman QB Cameron Ward. In 2 games he has completed 67.1% of his passes for 8 TD. And when they run the ball, UIW is rushing for 9.7 yards/rush over 2 games. So far their offense looks like it can move the ball at will.

After a solid first game opening loss to Sam Houston State, SE Louisiana has looked somewhat disappointing the last two weeks in home close victories against McNeese and Northwestern State. If Northwestern State was able to rush for 5.0 yards/rush against them that doesn’t give me a lot of confidence in their ability to slow down Incarnate Word.

I believe the wrong team is favored here. I’ll take what I believe to be the better team, at home, getting 3 points every time.

Official Plays – Week 6 Spring FCS

Sam Houston State (-28) (-113) @ Lamar (Bookmaker)
Risking 3.39 to win 3.00 Units

SE Louisiana @ Incarnate Word (+3) (-105) (Bookmaker)
Risking 3.15 to win 3.00 Units

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