Rather than creating a new post for each bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.

Last Week Recap

Last Week: 2-0, +6.00 Units
YTD: 5-2, +8.60 Units

6 Unit days are always great but that the fact that neither of these covers were ever in doubt made it that much more enjoyable. Both games went almost exactly as I thought they would in my write-ups.

SE Louisiana @ Incarnate Word (+3)

Once the Incarnate Word offense got going there was really no doubt that this one was going to cash. I’m now 2-0 betting UIW and I’m not ready to quit them yet (more on that later). True Freshman QB Cameron Ward was great again in this 56-45 win as his season stats continue to look gaudy: 79-for-126 (62.7%), 1,054 yards and 14 TD with only 2 INT.

Sam Houston State (-28) @ Lamar

There is not much to say about this one. Sam Houston State rolled 62-7 which is exactly what you hope for when you’re laying 28 points. The Bearkats are crushing everyone right now and their next victim will be Northwestern State after this week’s bye.

Week 7: Spring FCS

Incarnate Word (+7) (-114) @ Nicholls St (Bookmaker)

Make sure you line shop here. As I type this it’s currently +7 on bookmaker, but only +6.5 on Fanduel and lower still on DraftKings/Barstool at +6.

I think Incarnate Word continues to be undervalued here. I wonder if the oddsmakers are still a little influenced by preseason power rankings that had UIW in the bottom tier of the Southland Conference. But those power rankings were based on the fact that UIW lost their Freshman of the Year QB to the transper portal. They weren’t accounting for a new freshman QB to come in and play like Patrick Mahomes and that’s what we’ve seen from Cameron Ward through 3 games.

UIW’s offense has been unbelievable this year and it certainly didn’t slow down any last week against an upgrade an opponent. Take a look at these numbers:

Nicholls will be the best team UIW has played so far this season, but you have to wonder a bit about where they’re at mentally right now. After 2 great games to open the season, the last two weeks haven’t been great. They beat a bad Northwestern State team 31-24 but allowed 24-237-9.9 on the ground in that game. Then they followed that up with the 71-17 loss to Sam Houston State. Granted, Sam Houston is destroying everyone right now but you still have to worry about that Nicholls defense right now. UIW is not the opponent that you want to see when you are having questions about your defense.

I am a little nervous that Nicholls is coming off a bye and has had an extra week to prepare. That being said, I still think the play here is UIW. I see this being a back and forth shootout and I just think the UIW offense is too good for Nicholls to pull away. If you’re giving me 7 points and a team averaging just under 50 points and 600 yards of total offense a game against a team that allowed 71 points in their last game, I’m going to pull the trigger.

Official Plays – Week 7 Spring FCS

Incarnate Word (+7) (-114) @ Nicholls St (Bookmaker)
Risking 3.42 to win 3.00 Units