Rather than creating a new post for each bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.

Last Week Recap

Last Week: No Plays
YTD: 5-3, +5.18 Units

After my five game winning streak came to a close two weeks ago with UIW getting blown out by Nicholls St, I ended up taking last week off. The FCS has hit a bit of a rough patch the last few weeks with tons of games being cancelled due to Covid and several teams opting out of the Spring season. We are limping to the finish line a little bit, but I still am confident that there will be a 16-team playoff starting up in a few weeks. It’s just a little harder to find plays right now, but this Spring season is just a warmup for the Fall any way when we will really get after it!

Week 9: Spring FCS

Youngstown State @ Missouri State (-2.5) (-133) (Bookmaker)

DraftKings/Barstool and Fan Duel have this one at -3.5 at low juice. Bookmaker had -3/-114 but I decided to pay up and get it under the key number. Hey, the juice only matters if we lose, right?

I’m playing the motivation angle here. Despite the contrast in records, when you look at this game the stats are pretty even so the -3 line makes sense to me. However it certainly means like this game is going to mean a lot more to Missouri State.

The Bears have had a nice Spring season under first year head coach Bobby Petrino (yes the motorcycle, neck brace guy). They are 4-1 this Spring including three consecutive wins: @ South Dakota 27-24, @ Northern Iowa 13-6, and vs Southern Illinois 30-27. The UNI and SIU wins are pretty impressive to me. If they win this game they will clinch a share of the Missouri Valley Conference Championship. This is enough motivation all on its own, but they are also still alive for an at-large bid in the 16-team playoff. I think they are still on the outside looking in there, but still alive enough for this game to really matter for them. Their game was cancelled last week, so they should be well-rested and prepared.

Youngstown State comes into this game with a 1-5 record. While they have been close in most of their games, the losses have kept piling up on them. In their last game they lost to Western Illinois (who I thought was the worst team in the Valley) who then turned around and cancelled the rest of their season after this game. The MVC is kind of a mess right now with teams opting out and tons of games being cancelled for Covid reasons. It just seems like a tough spot for the Penguins to get motivated on the road. If they get down early I could see them start to fold a little bit.

For me this one comes down to the fact that Missouri State seems to have a lot to play for and Youngstown State probably just wants to get this Spring season over with. I’ll take the home team here that has the motivation angle laying only 2.5.

Official Plays – Week 9 Spring FCS

Youngstown State @ Missouri State (-2.5) (-133) (Bookmaker)
Risking 2.66 to win 2.00 Units