Happy Friday! We get to start our weekend with four Friday night games and while I don’t have any official plays (yet), I wanted to give you guys a quick write-up on each game. As always, please follow me on twitter for any potential live plays. I’ll also hang out in the Bearded Bettors discord so you can get my thoughts on games there as well.
6:30: Kansas @ Coastal Carolina (ESPN 2)
Coastal Carolina -27, Over/Under 52.5
Coastal beat Kansas 38-23 last year and 12-7 in 2019. They opened their season with a 52-14 win over The Citadel (FCS team that runs the triple option). Stud QB Grayson McCall is back this year.
Kansas fans stormed the field last week after they beat a middle of the road FCS team (South Dakota) 17-14. That tells you all you need to know about where this program is.
I don’t want to lay 27 points but I definitely like Coastal Carolina to win the game. They played with a ton of swagger last year so I think they will be up for this game as they know they will have a lot of eyes on them with it being a Friday night ESPN 2 matchup. It’s unlikely, but if Kansas jumps out to an early lead we will look to bet Coastal.
7:00: North Carolina A&T @ Duke (ACC Network)
Duke -20, Over/Under 57
Duke is projected to finish last in the ACC. They opened their season with a 31-28 loss @ Charlotte (who is a bad C-USA team).
North Carolina A&T is an FCS team that lost in their opener to another FCS team, Furman, 29-18.
I really don’t have anything on this game. It won’t be my #1 game and will probably only tune in if Duke is losing late or I hear that a QB got hurt and want to live bet the other team. Skip.
8:00: North Dakota @ Utah State (CBS Sports Network)
Utah State -8, Over/Under 51
I’m looking forward to this game, but holy line movement. It opened at 5Dimes at -3.5 and I probably would have played Utah State at that number, but by the time my books got around to posting this game the line had already moved to -6 and now today it’s moved again -8. Also it looks like the total has been dropping like crazy. These books really need to get me FCS lines earlier. Ugh.
I have 5 units on Utah State over 3 wins this year, so I was really excited to see them open their season with a win @ Washington State last week as a 17-point underdog. If they get this one too, that bet will be in great shape. This is typically a letdown spot coming off a big upset win the week before, but hopefully since this is their home opener and they have a new head coach they will come focused again this week.
North Dakota is a team I know well from the Spring FCS season. They are a good MVC team with a strong running game with RB Otis Weah. QB Tommy Schuster also had a nice season. They do have a reputation for struggling on the road however. In 2019 & 2020 they were a combined 2-7 in road games. They did open their season with a road win against Idaho last week, but that’s not enough to convince me they have gotten past those struggles yet. I also give an extra advantage to the home team on a short week. I don’t have the data on hand, but home team perform better in mid-week games than they do on weekend games.
I don’t want to lay eight points, but I will be watching this game and seeing if an opportunity presents itself for a live bet. Go Aggies.
8:30: UTEP @ Boise State (FS1)
Boise State -26, Over/Under 56
I don’t know what to do with this game. UTEP is 2-0 but the wins have come against lowly New Mexico State and FCS Bethune-Cookman. They have put up more than 450 yards of total offense in both games though. But their RB, Delon Hankins, is out for this game.
Boise is coming off a really tough opening week loss to UCF that saw them give away a big lead. That game was a little misleading though. The fact that Boise had a big early lead and only lost 36-31 would lead you to believe that it was a close game. But UCF actually outgained Boise 573-283 which is a huge disparity.
I think I lean Boise here since they are the home team and have had 2 extra days to prepare. Coming off a loss, I could see them coming out firing. If you want to bet this one, Boise 1H might be your best play before they call the dogs off.