Week 3: Official Plays

Rather than creating a new post for each bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.

Last Week Recap

Last Week: 6-1, +13.55 Units
YTD: 22-12 (64.7%), +23.70 Units

Last Week

What a beautiful week! This is why we put the work in! This is why I didn’t sweat the fact that I was running in place for Week 0 & Week 1… because we didn’t lose anything and I knew eventually a big week would come. We won all of our pregame bets and took advantage of live bet opportunities as well. I hope that must of you were able to get Memphis at -4.5 since that one ended 55-50. That’s why I do post plays on Sunday, as soon as the lines are released, to try and give myself and you all the best possible number. Many times it does matter.

On to Week 3….

Week 3 Official Play Write-Ups

Nevada (-2.5) (-105) @ Kansas State (Fan Duel)

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A few minutes after I bet this one I saw that it had already moved to -2.5/-130 on Fan Duel, but Draft Kings posted it a few minutes later at -2.5/-110. Obviously getting this one below -3 is the goal, even if you have to pay a little more than usual on the juice.

Kansas State lost their starting QB Skylar Thompson yesterday. I haven’t seen anything official come out yet but it sure looked like a season ending injury to me by the way that Head Coach Chris Klieman was reacting. This could be a crippling blow for Kansas State. As I wrote in my preseason Big 12 power rankings in 2020 Kansas State averaged 33.3 points/game with Thompson in the lineup and only 18.5 points/game without him.

It looks like K-State will be going with the same QB as last year to replace him, Will Howard. Howard threw more INT than TD in 2020 and it was more of the same last week when he was forced to play against an FCS team in Southern Illinois. Howard was just 8-for-17 for 76 yards with 0 TD and 1 INT against an SIU defense that is below average by FCS standards.

Nevada might be the best team in the Mountain West conference. They opened their season with a come from behind road win at California (who looked pretty good last week against TCU) before crushing FCS Idaho last week 49-10. They already have a road game under their belt and since the slow start against California, their high-powered offense has found their rhythm. QB Carson Strong is getting first round NFL Draft buzz and so far he has backed it up this season completing over 68% of his passes and 6 TD vs 1 INT.

I like the Wolfpack to get the road victory in this one and keep rolling while the Wildcats struggle to figure out their identity without Thompson.

Alabama/Florida Over 56.5 (-108) (Fan Duel)

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As I type this less than 24 hours after putting this play in I see that the line is up to 58.5 already on Draft Kings & Fan Duel and 59 on Bet Online. The early bird gets the worm, I suppose. I could see this one ending up around 60.

The last time we saw these two teams play it was in last year’s SEC Championship game where Alabama beat Florida 52-46. Yes, I do understand that that game was played indoors and that several key contributors are gone from that game (Steve Sarkisian, Kyle Trask, Mac Jones, Najee Harris, Devonta Smith). But I still see this one as a game where Alabama ends up with 40 points and I definitely think a Dan Mullen coached team ends up finding a way to score at least 20.

Florida isn’t known for their defense. They gave up 31 points/game last year. I don’t think they will be much better in that area this year. They outscore teams. That’s their identity. The Alabama offense lost a ton this offseason, but you would never know it from watching them against Miami in the opener. They put up 44 points and really looked like they could have scored as many as they wanted too. Freshman QB Bryce Young looks like a stud and early Heisman favorite. I know this is his first true road game, and the swamp will be LOUD, but Alabama will still score early and often.

On the other side of the ball… it’s tough going against the Alabama defense. In my opinion they are probably the best in the Nation. I bet (and won) on the Under in week one against Miami. But Dan Mullen knows how to coach offense. And he will be pulling out all the stops in this one. I expect to see plenty of the backup QB Anthony Richardson that everyone is calling for to start over Emory Jones. The explosive Richardson has 11 rushes for 275 yards (25 yards/rush!) and 2 TD on the ground to go along with a passing line of 6-for-11 for 192 yards and 2 TD in 2 games this season. Talk about explosive!

I think the Gators will score enough, but in the end they eventually won’t be able to keep up with the Alabama offense in a game that ends up well above 57 points scored.

Utah State (+9) (-120) @ Air Force (Draft Kings)

Utah State is a team that I’ve been monitoring closely since I have 5 units on them to win over 3 games this season. So obviously I’m thrilled with the 2-0 start with an upset win @ Washington State in week one and then avoiding a let down after a slow start in week 2 against North Dakota.

Air Force is a team that runs the triple option on offense. That slows the game down a lot and 9 points is a lot to be giving up in a slow paced game. I think Utah State is explosive enough on offense (they really looked like they found their rhythm last week with Bonner at QB) to put up enough points to cover and perhaps even win.

Air Force played what I think is a really bad Navy team last week and only put up 23 points on 255 yards of total offense. They issue was that Navy couldn’t do anything at all with their triple option attack mustering only 68 yards of total offense. I think that it will be a completely different game this week with Blake Anderson’s Aggies coming into town. They put up 441 yards of total offense against Washington State and then 621 yards of total offense against North Dakota. They can score! And if they get up early that really creates problems for a triple option team that has to take a long time to score points of their own.

I think this is a one possession game that Utah State may end up winning outright. I’ll happily take the nine points.

Isaiah Williams Over 55.5 (-114) Receiving Yards vs. Maryland (Bet Online)

Quick write-up here as this game starts in less than an hour. I think Illinois is going to have to pass in this game. I don’t envision this game playing out where they get a big lead and sit on the lead with the running game. They are either going to be playing from behind or having to pass to keep up with the Maryland offense.

Isaiah Williams is clearly their #1 target in the passing game. In their 3 games this season he has had 6 receptions, 8 receptions, and 5 receptions. Nobody else has had more than 5 receptions in a game. He is a converted QB that has getting more and more comfortable in his first season as a WR. He is getting his starting QB, Brandon Peters, back in this game after losing him in the first half of the Week 0 matchup against Nebraska. Williams is very explosive as has the potential to pop one at any time. His explosiveness combined with the amount of chances I think he will get tonight make this a solid play for me tonight. The forecast looks dry with no wind.

Official Plays – Week 3

Nevada (-2.5) (-105) @ Kansas State (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.15 Units to win 3.00 Units

Alabama/Florida Over 56.5 (-108) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.24 Units to win 3.00 Units

Utah State (+9) (-120) @ Air Force (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.60 Units to win 3.00 Units

Isaiah Williams Over 55.5 (-114) Receiving Yards vs. Maryland (Bet Online)
Risking 2.28 Units to win 2.00 Units

One thought on “Week 3: Official Plays

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