Week 2: Official Plays

Rather than creating a new post for each bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.

Last Week Recap

Last Week: 4-4, +0.76 Units
YTD: 16-11 (59.2%), +10.15 Units

A positive week is a positive week but Notre Dame blowing an 18 point 4th quarter lead ended up being a 6.45 unit swing for us. It happens. Nothing wrong with making +0.76 units. Moving on to Week 2….

Week 2 Official Play Write-Ups

Memphis (-4.5) (-110) @ Arkansas State (Fan Duel)

Like I stated in my tweet above, I do expect this line to move. Draft Kings and Bet Online both have -5.5 right now. Fan Duel is still holding strong at -4.5 but I don’t know for how much longer. If you like this one, I wouldn’t wait until Saturday to play it. Quick sidebar: I do think it will be pretty common for me to have official plays on Sunday and Monday that might move as the week goes on, so it might not be the worst idea to set up tweet alerts if that’s something you want to be on the lookout for.

There isn’t much that we can draw from week 1 for either team. Both Memphis and Arkansas State opened their seasons with home games against FCS opponents and both won easily. Memphis beat a solid Nicholls team 42-17 and Arkansas State beat Central Arkansas 40-21.

I don’t have a ton on this game from a writeup standpoint – it’s more of just a trust your power rankings play for me. I have Memphis as one of the higher rated teams in the American Conference while I have Arkansas State in the lower half of the Sun Belt conference and I think the American is the stronger conference than the Sun Belt so I’m rolling with Memphis here.

Memphis started a true freshman at QB in week one in Seth Henigan and he will continue to be the starter for awhile with the projected starter still out. It sounds like he had a solid game against Nicholls and had impressive poise for a freshman. I am a little worried that this will be his first road game, but I think Arkansas State is a softer landing spot compared to a lot of other road environments.

Arkansas State lost their head coach, starting QB, and several other players to Utah State (who upset Washington State in week 1.. great for our futures bet!) so I think they are still catching up with that. They have a history of struggling defensively. In 2019 they allowed 34 points & 478 yards per game. This didn’t get any better in 2020 as they allowed 37 points & 470 yards per game. Memphis put up more than 500 yards of total offense (including 222 on the ground) in their 2020 meeting and I think they should be able to move the ball with relative ease again this time. Memphis is coming off 322 yard rushing performance in week one against Nicholls and I am counting on their offensive line to have the advantage again in this one. I’m expecting Memphis to win this one by more than one possession. Give me the Tigers.

Western Kentucky/Army Over 53.5 (-112) (Fan Duel)

Army is a triple option team and it’s always a little uncomfortable betting an over with a triple option team because that system can sometimes bleed the clock like crazy. But that being said, there is a ton to like about the over here.

Western Kentucky has become an air raid team after adding a ton from FCS Houston Baptist this offseason including their starting QB Bailey Zappe, Offensive Coordinator, and multiple wide receivers. Houston Baptist was an FCS team that played fast and put up huge offensive numbers (while also giving up a ton of points defensively).

WKU followed that model in their opening game last week, defeating UT Martin 59-21 and gaining 587 total yards (478 through the air). They started kind of slow but once they got the kinks out they scored on 9 straight drives (8 TD and 1 FG… wow!). How about this stat line for Bailey Zappe? 28-for-35, 424 yards, 7 TD and 1 INT. There offense plays fast which is terrific for the over because they are either going to score fast or give the ball back to Army quickly which will wear down their defense. I think WKU will put up plenty of points, but on the other side of the ball I think the Army rushing attack will give WKU fits.

The Hilltoppers struggled against the run in Week 1 against FCS UT Martin giving up 201 rushing yards and 5.9 yards per carry. It wasn’t much better for them last year as they gave up 171 rushing yards per game on average.

Army ran for 258 yards last week in their 43-10 win at Georgia State last week. They are a team that lives and dies by running the football. Last year they ran for 273 yards/game and averaged 4.6 yards per carry.

I think both offenses match up well against the defenses. I think WKU will score plenty and do so quickly. I think Army will be able to run it well against WKU and get plenty of chunk yards on the ground to keep their drives from taking too long. Give me the over here.

Texas State (+100) @ FIU (Draft Kings)

Those of you that have been following me for awhile know that I’m afraid to roll my sleeves up and dig deep into some gross matchups… this one is no exception. These are two bad group of five teams but I do think Texas State is ahead of FIU at this point at a program and their arrow is starting to point up while FIU’s is pointing down.

Florida International was 0-5 last season. They gained fewer than 300 yards/game in 2020, gave up 5 sacks in 3 of their 5 games, and only put up 156 yards of total offense in a 19-10 loss to an FCS team in Jacksonville State. They opened their season with a 48-10 win over FCS Long Island (shout out Bearded Bettors college basketball fans) but this is only Long Island’s 3^rd year in the FCS so they barely even count as FCS. They have one of the smaller stadiums in the FBS so I’m not too worried about the home field advantage. I don’t like that they played on Thursday (while Texas State played on Saturday), so they had two extra days to prepare… but no bet is perfect.

At first glance, Texas State looks like trash too. They were 2-10 last season but when you dig a little deeper you see that they played a lot of good teams tough in 2020 losing by one possession against SMU, UTSA, @ Boston College, and @ Georgia Southern. They seem to be showing my life than FIU. They bring back Brady McBride at QB who posted a 61.3% completion percentage and a 17-7 TD-INT ratio last year to go along with a nice RB trio. They hung pretty tough against Baylor last week, losing 29-20 but they led the game 10-7 at one point. Ultimately they were done in by turnovers throwing 3 INT (one that was returned for a TD). I think they will take better care of the ball against FIU and end up winning this game by more than a TD

KJ Jefferson (Arkansas) Over 57.5 (-110) Rushing Yards vs Texas (Fan Duel)

This is a game that Arkansas has had circled all season. It’s going to be a wild scene in Fayetteville tonight. I think Arkansas is going to throw anything and everything at Texas tonight and hold nothing back. That includes using their big 245 pound QB as a weapon on the ground.

Jefferson rushed for 89 yards on 9 attempts last week against Rice. I think Arkansas knows their going to have to run him even more than that to beat Texas. I’m expecting him to have double digit rush attempts tonight and I like the chances that he pops one or two for more than ten yards and ends up averaging more than 6 yards/attempt.

Official Plays – Week 2

Memphis (-4.5) (-110) @ Arkansas State (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Western Kentucky/Army Over 53.5 (-112) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.36 Units to win 3.00 Units

Texas State (+100) @ FIU (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.00 Units to win 3.00 Units

KJ Jefferson (Arkansas) Over 57.5 (-110) Rushing Yards vs. Texas (Fan Duel)
Risking 2.20 to win 2.00 Units