Those of you that were with my during the FBS offseason know that (in addition to having a profitable FCS Spring Season), I also submitted some futures bets for the current season. For a complete list of my official futures bets please check out my CFB Tracking page and scroll all the way to the bottom.
Let’s check in on these bets and see how we’re doing….
Utah State Over 3 Wins (-125): 5.00 Units to win 4.00 Units
This one is ahead of schedule! I was only counting on one win before their bye (North Dakota), but my Aggies are 2-0 with an upset win @ Washington State to go along with their win against North Dakota. Through two games they look better than even I expected and I think it is extremely likely that we cash this ticket. Not only does Utah State look better than anticipated, but some of the remaining teams on their schedule look more beatable than I originally thought as well. I would grade 4 of their remaining games as likely wins (@ UNLV, vs Colorado State, @ New Mexico State, and @ New Mexico) and other games like @ Air Force and vs. Hawaii as possible wins as well.
Confidence Level: Sky High
Toledo Over 8 Wins (+105): 4.00 Units to win 4.20 Units
Toledo to win the MAC Conference (+350): 1.00 Units to win 3.50 Units
This one is right on schedule. While the Rockets are only 1-1 on the season their one loss was the only game on the schedule that I penciled in as a sure loss (@ Notre Dame). Toledo looked much better than expected in that game leading Notre Dame with under 2 minutes left in the game and almost stealing a huge win. Through two games they look like the best team in the MAC to me. I’m feeling good about this one.
Confidence Level: High
Utah to Win the Pac-12 Conference (+1700): 1.00 Unit to win 17.00 Units
I still love the value I got here, even after Utah’s loss @ BYU. That game as a non-conference game, so no harm no foul with losing that one as it relates to this bet. One of their division rivals, USC, already has a bad conference loss to their name with their loss against Stanford. The Pac-12 South will be a jumbled mess with Utah, USC, UCLA, and Arizona State all having a shot and the right to play Oregon in the conference championship game. I still think Utah has as good a shot as anyone to win the South and then we can hedge our bets against Oregon in that game. The current line on Fan Duel is Utah +500 to win the Pac-12 so we did great getting +1700 when we did in the offseason.
Confidence Level: Content
Casey Thompson to win the Heisman (+5000): 0.50 Units to win 25.00 Units
Kedon Slovis to win the Heisman (+2000): 1.00 Unit to win 20.00 Units
Mohamed Ibrahim to win the Heisman (+5000): 0.50 Units to win 25.00 Units
These were fun bets that I put in the day after the National Championship. In retrospect, it’s definitely not a good idea to play Heisman futures that early (if at all), but I was anxious to start a college football gambling blog.
Thompson – Steve Sarkisian probably sunk this one before it had a shot by starting the wrong QB the first 2 games of the year. He started Hudson Card, got smoked by Arkansas, and now demoted him for Thompson. Even if Thompson plays great he probably can’t overcome the limited playing time in the first two games.
Bet Status: On Life Support
Slovis – Losing by Stanford by 14 points at home and firing your head coach after 2 games doesn’t scream HEISMAN to me. Slovis’s stats have been fine but unspectacular through two games this season. It will take a heck of a run for USC and Slovis for him to even be invited to New York.
Bet Status: On Life Support
Ibrahim – This one was looking great for a few hours! All eyes were on the Ohio State-Minnesota game on Thursday night of Week 1 and Ibrahim was tearing it up: 30 carries for 163 yards and 2 TD! But unfortunately late in that game he injured his Achilles which is going to keep him out for the rest of the season.
Bet Status: Dead