Week 5: Official Plays

Rather than creating a new post for each bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.

Last Week Recap

Last Week: 4-2, +5.55 Units
YTD: 29-17 (63.0%), +29.37 Units

Last Week

We keep chugging along with a very nice week. We went 2-1 with the picks we played on Sunday, lost our live Friday night bet (as Friday’s continue to frustrate me), and won our 2-0 FCS plays. I seem to have a really good handle on the FCS right now. I’m 15-6 (71.4%), +20.69 on the FCS in 2021. Unfortunately it seems like these lines don’t get posted until around 9 AM on Saturday morning. I think what I will do this week is make a post for FCS games I’m looking at/targeting so that no one is surprised when I fire them off at 9 AM. It might be a good idea to have alerts set up for my twitter account on Saturday morning as you don’t have much of a window to get these in.

On to Week 5….

Week 5 Official Play Write-Ups

Ole Miss (+17) (-110) @ Alabama (Draft Kings)

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I actually got this one last Thursday when DraftKings put their look ahead line up and pounced on it right away thinking +17 would be as high as this one would go. I would still really like this one at anything over 14. I’m going against Rule #1 of College Football Gambling, which is… you don’t get rich betting against Alabama but 17 points seems like a ton here.

I think Ole Miss is a top 10 team right now and Alabama is a little more vulnerable than usual at the moment (by Alabama standards… they’re still a top team). Nick Saban even admitted as much to the media after the Mercer game and then they followed that up with a close 2-point game against Florida. Say what you will about Saban, but when we says something like that… he typically means it.

Ole Miss looks like a team that can score against anybody. Lane Kiffin gets excited to play Alabama and he has had two weeks to prepare for this one. He will throw the kitchen sink at Alabama. Last year they gave Alabama a great game, eventually losing 63-48 (but there was a garbage TD in that game after an onside kick. The game was closer than the final score indicates). This year Ole Miss looks even better having smoked a Louisville team that beat UCF and a Tulane team that almost beat Oklahoma. Alabama looks a little behind where the team was last year.

Maybe I’ll go to bed kicking myself for betting against Nick Saban, but to me this looks like a fun, high scoring game that Ole Miss will be able to keep within two TDs.

Indiana @ Penn State (-10.5) (-110) (Fan Duel)

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I think that the Indiana offense is going to have a tough time with the Penn State defense. The Hoosiers could only muster up 6 points on 233 yards against Iowa and 24 points on 376 yards against Cincinnati. Penn State at home is probably a better defense than both of those teams have. Also QB Michael Pennix has been turnover happy with 6 INT in 4 games.

The Indiana defense gave up 31 points on 458 yards last week at Western Kentucky. This will be their second road game in a row and I like Penn State’s chances to be able to move the ball consistently. This year seems like it is shaping up to be the polar opposite of last year for both Penn State and Indiana. I like Penn State to win this game by two TDs as they keep rolling and Indiana keeps struggling.

Western Kentucky/Michigan State Over 59 (-110) (Draft Kings)

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I tweeted this one out about 16 hours ago and now, as I type this, the line is up to 61.5 on DraftKings & Fan Duel and 60.5/-125 on Bet Online. It pays to be ready to fire on Sunday as beating the line movement absolutely does matter in the long run (see: Memphis -4.5 on Week 2).

Western Kentucky is a team I wrote about when we played (and cashed easily) the over on the Army/WKU game in Week 2. They play really fast and throw the ball a lot with QB Bailey Zappe at the helm. In their first three games they have put up 59 points on 587 yards against UT Martin, 35 points on 477 yards against Army, and 31 points on 458 yards against Indiana. The overwhelming majority of their yards come through the air as they are averaging 426 passing yards per game.

I believe that Michigan State has proven themselves to be a strong team this year but I do believe that their pass defense may be a little leaky at this point. In their opener they gave up 283 yards through the air to Northwestern’s Hunter Johnson who has struggled in just about every other game of his career. The last two weeks they have given up 440 yards of total offense to both Miami & Nebraska, which is a higher number than you would like to see them give up. 388 of those yards for Miami came through the air. So I think Western Kentucky will be able to chip in their fair share of the points needed for the over with their ability to move the ball through the air.

On the other side of the ball, Michigan State shouldn’t have much trouble scoring. Last week notwithstanding their offense was really strong the first three weeks of the year against Northwestern, Youngstown State, and Miami averaging 520 yards of total offense in those 3 games and 264 yards on the ground. RB Kenneth Walker Jr. has been a stud averaging 7.3 yards per carry on the year and QB Payton Thorne has been really impressive with a 10-1 TD-INT ratio to open the season. Western Kentucky’s defense has shown that it can be beat on the ground or through the air in the last two games giving up 38 points on 339 rushing yards to Army and 33 points on 373 passing yards to Indiana. Michigan State has the ability to beat them either way.

I see Michigan State scoring pretty easily in this one and Western Kentucky’s offense having it’s moments as well. When I close my eyes I envision Michigan State never really being in danger of losing this game but Western Kentucky’s offense always doing enough to keep it from reaching blowout territory and maybe adding a garbage TD late to make the game appear a little closer than it really was. Maybe something like a 38-28 final.

Brennan Armstrong (UVA) Over 331.5 Passing Yards (-115) @ Miami

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We’re going back to the UVA well after they burned us last week, but I think this one has a good shot even if Virginia plays poorly again. The UVA offense has put up 500+ yards of offense in every game (even last week when they only managed 17 points they still had 506 yards of total offense). Brennan Armstrong has gone over this number in all 4 games: 339 against William & Mary, 405 against Illinois, 554 at North Carolina, and 407 at Wake Forest.

It is unlikely that Virginia will run away with this game (currently a 4.5 point underdog) so they will most likely not abandon the passing game at all in this game. The offensive line has been a problem protecting Armstrong as they gave up 3 sacks against North Carolina and 6 last week against Wake Forest. But some sacks are okay for this bet as it gives us more yards to collect through the air as defenses go softer to prevent the big play.

Miami’s defense has struggled tackling in space and they will have to do a lot of it tonight. I like the chances of one or two big plays in the passing game coming off a missed tackle.

FCS Lean: North Dakota State (-10.5) @ North Dakota

Unfortunately my books don’t post FCS lines until about 9 AM on Saturday, so I need to be ready to fire right away because the lines can move super fast. Last week I jumped on South Dakota State (-11.5) (-125) from the College Gameday set at Soldier Field and the line jumped to around -14 within minutes after. It’s didn’t matter though, South Dakota State won 44-0. I also hit Western Illinois +7.5 and they won that game outright. There is lots of value in these FCS lines, so it’s worth the hassle. If you’re serious about this, be ready to pounce on Saturday morning. I’m currently 15-6 (71.4%), +20.69 Units on the year in the FCS.

I know this game is @ UND rather than the Fargo Dome, but I just don’t see anything North Dakota has done to close the gap here. In the Spring, North Dakota State had their worst team in a decade with a huge hole at QB with the Trey Lance opt-out and they still beat UND 34-13. They look much better so far this year adding transfer QB Quincy Patterson. The NDSU running game and defense looks nasty. Granted they have had an easy schedule to open the year, but they are running for 348 yards/game on 7.9 yards/carry. On defense, they are holding teams to 197 yards/game and only 1.4 yards/carry.

In UND’s only game against a good team, they only ran the ball for 65 yards (2.7 yards/carry) against a Utah State team that got crushed on the ground by Air Force. They also gave up 621 total yards in that game including 217 on the ground. I think they will have similar struggles in this area against a strong Bison team.

It’s also important to note that UND RB Otis Weah did not play last week. If he is out this week that makes things even worse for the Fighting Hawks. NDSU has had 2 weeks to prepare for this game and are 34-0 in their last 34 games coming off an open week.

I think this is a playoff caliber team vs. a championship caliber team. There is a gap there. And in a rivalry game, I feel better about covering a double digit spread as there is motivation to run it up a little bit. I’m thinking this one ends up around 31-13 NDSU.

Official Plays – Week 5

Ole Miss (+17) (-110) @ Alabama (DraftKings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Indiana @ Penn State (-10.5) (-110) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Western Kentucky/Michigan State Over 59 (-110) (DraftKings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Brennan Armstrong (UVA) Over 331.5 Passing Yards (-115) @ Miami (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units

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