Week 7: Official Plays

Rather than creating a new post for each bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.

Last Week Recap

Last Week: 3-3, -2.70 Units
YTD: 34-26, +11.73 Units

Last Week

What looked like it was shaping up to be a big week, turned into a negative week with 3 losses to close out the card. The one that grinds my gears is the South Alabama game. That is a game that they had a million opportunities to win and they just didn’t finish the deal. That’s a 6.45-unit swing that took us from a nice week to a negative week. It happens, but it’s frustrating.

On to Week 7….

Week 7 Official Play Write-Ups

Ohio (+10) (-110) @ Buffalo (DraftKings)

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I think Ohio is starting to show signs of improvements. The mistake a lot of people make when they are gambling is the way they look at past results as sure thing indicator of what will happen in the future. The thing about college football is that many teams make jumps throughout the season, so a team may look way different in October than they do in September. The trick is to try and find those teams.

What I like about Ohio here is that they seemed to commit to a new QB last week in a game they almost pulled off vs. Central Michigan. Throughout the last season and a half Kurtis Rourke has been the starting QB with Armani Rogers only being used sparingly at the position. Last week, Rogers got all the snaps while Rourke was healthy and active for the game. He did pretty well with the opportunity going 13-for-18 for 190 yards. Rogers is also a much better threat to run the ball than Rourke, going 43-242-5.6 on the ground this season in limited action.

I think that skillset is a better alternative for this Ohio team that is hopefully forming an identity as a run first team. They have two good RB’s in De’Montre Tuggle (70-448-6.4) & O’Shaan Allison (54-260-4.8) and by adding a mobile QB they will be able to run a lot more read option type plays. They have already been a strong team on the ground this season and by inserting more of Rogers they could take that strength to the next level.

Buffalo has struggled to defend the run this season. They have given 200+ yards/rushing in 4 of their 6 games, including 226 last week against Kent State. They were a team that was gutted by transfers this offseason when HC left late to take the Kansas job and took a bunch of his players with him. They haven’t looked anything like the Buffalo team that went to the MAC championship game last season, opening this year 0-2 in conference. I like Ohio’s chances of putting some long drives together on the drive and keeping this one within a one score game.

Michigan State (-3) (-115) @ Indiana (DraftKings)

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Full disclosure: There are 2 scheduling dynamics that I don’t like about this game that almost kept me from playing it. The first being that Indiana is coming off a bye and has had two weeks to prepare for this game. The second being that Michigan State is in a potential look-ahead spot with the Michigan game on-deck for them. That being said, I went ahead and played it any way because I just think the Spartans are a much better team than the Hoosiers right now. I’m putting my faith in Mel Tucker to have them ready to go.

Michigan State continues to fly under the National radar a little bit, but they are playing really good football this season. QB Payton Thorne has been a stud (62.4% 14-2 TD-INT) and RB Kenneth Walker has been a monster (128-903-7.1). Aside from the Nebraska win, they’ve beat every team on their schedule by 17+ points.

Indiana is a team I’ve been down on this season. I faded them against Penn State and that bet cashed easily. QB Michael Pennix has been a disappointment. He got dinged up against Penn State and I don’t know at this time if he’ll be back for the Michigan State game. They haven’t been able to run the ball well all season, averaging only 3.4 yards/carry on the ground. The defense isn’t good enough to bail out the offense when they are put in tough spots. Cincinnati put up 38 on them and Western Kentucky put up 31 on them. I think the Michigan State offense will have similar success and the Indiana offense won’t be able to keep up. I see this one being a 31-21 type game, with the Spartans walking away with a win.

1Q Ole Miss @ Tennessee (+0.5) (-115) (DraftKings)

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I know a 1st Quarter play is a little unconventional for me, but I really like the angle. Tennessee is the #1 team in the Nation in 1st quarter scoring. They are averaging 17.4 points/game in the 1st quarter this season and those numbers have actually improved since they ended the non-conference season and got into the SEC league play. Since starting SEC play 3 weeks ago, they have put up 7 1Q points against Florida, 28 1Q points against Missouri, and 28 1Q points last week against South Carolina.

While some people might chalk this up to luck, I believe it’s not that simple. Something that casual fans may not know about football is that offensive coaches script their first 10-20 plays of the game based off of the prep work and game plan they’ve installed for that week. Clearly Tennessee HC Josh Heupel is skilled at this as he has a proven track record now for fast starts. The Ole Miss defense they are going up against isn’t any better than Missouri’s or South Carolina’s so another fast start is very possible.

Ole Miss, while elite on offense, has actually gotten off to slow offensive starts lately. They have actually been shutout in the first quarter of their last two games @ Alabama and vs Arkansas (in a game they still scored 52 points in). This is a tough spot for them to walk into. The atmosphere will be electric in Knoxville as this is one of the bigger games they’ve had there in awhile. It is a night game and the fan base should be rowdy. Tennessee is coming off of two easy victories while Ole Miss is coming off back-to-back very tough physical games against Alabama & Arkansas. Everything is pointing toward Tennessee getting off to a fast start in this one and Ole Miss having to catch up.

I like Tennessee to win the 1st quarter and I feel really good about getting the +0.5 so that even a tie would be a win for us. Kick back, drink a little moonshine, and root on the Vols to a first quarter win!

Official Plays – Week 7

Ohio (+10) (-110) @ Buffalo (DraftKings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Michigan State (-3) (-115) @ Indiana (DraftKings)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units

1Q Ole Miss @ Tennessee (+0.5) (-115) (DraftKings)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units

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