NCAA Week 8 – Official Plays

Rather than creating a new post for each bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.

Last Week Recap

Last Week: 5-2, +4.67 Units
YTD: 39-28, +16.40 Units

Last Week

Nice week. We started off with an FCS win on Friday night with Montana State and then two 11 AM game wins with Ohio & Michigan State. We pegged the Ohio game perfectly as they were able to run the ball much more effectively with Rogers at QB. The MSU cover may have been a little lucky when you look at the post game win expectancy models but the Tennessee 1Q bet was very unlucky with a muffed punt giving Ole Miss an extra TD so I guess those balance out. All things considered it was a very nice week.

On to Week 8….

Week 8 Official Play Write-Ups

San Jose State (-4) (-125) @ UNLV (Bet Online) – THURSDAY

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I had a lot of eyes on UNLV last week because I bet (unsuccessfully) for Utah State’s TT to go over against them. They lost their QB Cameron Friel late in that game and he was unable to return to the game. The injury didn’t look very good and with this being a short turnaround before their next game, I think it is unlikely that he will be ready to go on Thursday night.

The backup QB, Doug Brumfield, has struggled in limited duty this year completing only 43% of his passes. He did not look good when was in there against Utah State. I think the Running Rebels offense will really struggle to move the ball against a very strong San Jose State defense. UNLV was able to run the ball really well against Utah State’s weak defense, but that appears to have been an anomaly. In their 3 games against good defenses (Arizona State, Iowa State, and UTSA) they have rushed for under 2 yards/carry. The passing game has struggled throughout the season and this doesn’t seem like the week they will get that going with a backup QB (most likely) against the Spartan defense.

San Jose State’s offense hasn’t been good but the UNLV defense has given up more than 400 yards in every game but one this season. I think they will able to muster up enough on offense and really shut UNLV down on defense. I normally don’t like betting on road teams in midweek games, but I feel a little better about this one because San Jose State has an extra day to prepare having played last week on Friday while UNLV played on Saturday. I see this one ending up in a low scoring game that San Jose State ends up winning by a couple scores.

Middle Tennessee State/UConn Over 52.5 (-110) (Fan Duel) – FRIDAY

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Seriously, Mike? Another UConn over?

I think this line will end up being a lot higher by kickoff. Middle Tennessee State has put up some high point totals in the games they have played against bad defenses: 50 vs Monmouth, 39 @ Charlotte, and 34 vs Marshall). UConn certainly qualifies as a bad defense having given up 38+ points 4 times and an average of 433 yards/game (with a schedule that includes Holy Cross, UMass, and Yale). Middle Tennessee State has had two weeks to prepare for this game and should be able to score 40+ points.

The Middle Tennessee State defense has given up 449 yards or more in each of their last 4 games. The UConn offense has shown signs of life at times recently and should be able to do some things against this defense. I just hope they end a few of those drives with TD, rather than settling for FG.

I’m seeing a 41-20 type game here.

Wisconsin (-2.5) (-115) @ Purdue (Fan Duel)

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I’m selling high on Purdue here coming off their big upset win in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes were ranked #2 but honestly weren’t as good from a power ranking standpoint as that ranking would indicate. They were a team that really benefited from turnovers throughout the year which masked some of their limitations on offense.

I have a hard time seeing Purdue put a strong performance together two weeks in a row against really good defenses. I tip my cap to them for the way they were able to move the ball against a really good Iowa defense (WR David Bell was fantastic), but now they have to turn around and do it again against another really good defense in Wisconsin. Wisconsin has a very good defense coordinator in Jim Leonard who will be studying the film of that Iowa game all week to be able to figure out how to attack Purdue. I believe that the Purdue offense will struggle. This is a defense that limited Penn State to only 297 yards, Notre Dame to only 242 yards, and Illinois to only 93 yards. They are very good and I give them a big edge over the Purdue offense.

Wisconsin’s offense has to get a little better at some point, don’t they? They may be getting back to their roots a little bit these last few weeks having rushed for 391 yards against Illinois and 198 yards against Army. I look for them to pound the run against Purdue and really limit the amount of times they put the ball in the air. I’m optimistic they will be able to generate enough offense from their running game to pull this one out. I’ll say 21-13 Wisconsin.

NC State (-2.5) (-110) @ Miami (FL) (Draft Kings)

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This is a case of two teams going in opposite directions. NC State is absolutely rolling having won 4 in a row including a win over preseason Top 5 Clemson and beating a solid Louisiana Tech team and a 26-point win on the road at Boston College. Meanwhile, Miami is 0-4 on the year against Power 5 conference teams and their QB D’Eriq King is out for the year. Morale seems to be low for Miami and there was even a now deleted tweet King sent out that seemed to indicate the culture isn’t that great right now.

NC State’s defense has been really good all year and the offense has been solid as well behind really good play from QB Devin Leary (66.8%, 13 TD vs 2 INT). I think Miami will struggle to score against the NC State defense with their backup QB Tyler Van Dyke who threw 3 INT last week against a soft UNC defense. I think NC State ends up cruising to a fairly sweet-free cover for us.

San Diego State/Air Force Under 41.5 (-114) (Fan Duel)

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San Diego State is coming off a game where they scored 6 points in regulation… and won the game. That tells you all the need to know about the current state of the Aztecs. They are a team that plays really strong defense, but is very limited offensively. Now enter an opponent that runs the triple option (Air Force) and this has all the makings of a low scoring rock fight on paper.

Both offenses will try to run the ball because they don’t want to or don’t trust their passing game. Both defenses are elite against the run. San Diego State hasn’t allowed a single opponent to run for more than 3 yards/carry this year. Air Force is only allowing an average of 91 rushing yards/game this year. I think we will see lots of running plays in this game that will keep the clock running. Even when teams do score, it figures to come on long sustained drives that eat up clock rather than on big plays… as neither offense is terribly explosive. I think this one ends up being a 20-13 type game.

Oregon/UCLA Over 57.5 (-114) (Fan Duel)

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I think the offenses will just be better than the defenses in this game. This is a huge game for Chip Kelly and as an offensive minded head coach I think he’ll be ready. He will play fast and we should get plenty of possessions in this game. This UCLA team is averaging 34 points a game and while his defense has looked better at times, they do still struggle against better competition (27 points allowed against LSU, 40 against Fresno State, and 42 against Arizona State). They’ve looked better the last two weeks because they’ve played inferior opponents but I still think the defense is leaky against better competition. Oregon is also averaging 34 points/game and I think they will have the edge on this UCLA defense. I think both teams end up breaking 30 points in this game.

Official Plays – Week 8

San Jose State (-4) (-125) @ UNLV (Bet Online)
Risking 3.75 Units to win 3.00 Units

Middle Tennessee State/UConn Over 52.5 (-110) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Wisconsin (-2.5) (-115) @ Purdue (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units

NC State (-2.5) (-110) @ Miami (FL) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

San Diego State/Air Force Under 41.5 (-114) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.42 Units to win 3.00 Units

Oregon/UCLA Over 57.5 (-114) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.42 Units to win 3.00 Units

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