Rather than creating a new post for each bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.
Last Week Recap
Last Week: 6-4, +6.55 Units
YTD: 45-32, +22.95 Units
Obviously really pleased with this week. Any time you walk away with an increase of 6.55 Units you have to be happy. Several of the games we won went about exactly the way we expected them to in last week’s write-ups (UConn-Middle Tennessee, Wisconsin-Purdue, San Diego State-Air Force). It seems like I am seeing things clearly right now and have a good feel for most of the times right now. That’s the way it should be in the second half of the season. Let’s stay hot!
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On to Week 9….
Week 9 Official Play Write-Ups
Texas/Baylor Under 62.5 (-115) (Fan Duel)
In Texas’s last two games they’ve gotten out to big leads only to watch their defense wear down in the second half and blow these big leads to turn what looked like easy wins into losses. This was the case against Oklahoma where they held a 41-23 lead late in the 3rd quarter and ended up losing the game 55-48 and the next week in the Oklahoma State game where they held a 24-13 3rd quarter lead and ended up losing the game 32-24.
Last week they had a bye to lick their wounds after those two gut punch games. I suspect that the coaching staff had time to evaluate things during this bye week and came to the realization that they are going to have to do things a little differently to help their defense out. I know that Steve Sarkisian wants to play fast on offense, but I think he realizes that he’s going to have to slow things down right now because he just doesn’t have the talent and depth he needs on the offensive line and defense right now to do that. He is wearing those units out. So I think in this game, against a solid Baylor defense, you will see a gameplan where they run the ball a little more and play at a little slower pace to give their defense more time to catch their breath and less time on the field. He has done this before. In his last victory (and road game), at TCU, they ran the ball 53 times and only passed the ball 22 times. Baylor has a solid defense and I think that points won’t come as easily for Texas as they have in some other games this year.
On the other side of the ball, I think that Baylor will want to run the ball a lot. They have been able to run the ball effectively this season (6.1 yards/carry) and Dave Aranda has seen what other teams have been able to do on the ground against Texas (they are averaging over 200 yards/game allowed on the ground). Aranda is a defensive minded coach. With this being a big game, I would expect him to want to pound the run (where he sees an advantage) rather than go to the air too much.
If this is the case, we will see both teams trying to run the ball a lot more than they throw the ball which will keep that clock moving which is very beneficial for the over. This one might be a little sweaty at times (under bets usually are), but when the dust settles I think we’ll be looking at 30-24 type final score.
North Texas/Rice Over 55.5 (-110) (Fan Duel)
Our first two bets include 4 out of 4 teams from the State of Texas. That’s fun.
It’s been a pretty ugly season thus far for the Rice Owls but they are coming off their best game of the season, a 30-24 win at UAB (a team that most people thought would end up in the C-USA championship game). In that game Rice played a QB, Wiley Green, who hadn’t played for 3 weeks and he performed impressively going 17-22 for 205 yards with 3 TD and 0 INT against a strong UAB defense. If they were able to score against the UAB defense, I think they’ll be able to score against a North Texas defense that has allowed the following point totals in FBS games: SMU 35, UAB 40, LA Tech 24, Missouri 48, Marshall 49, and Liberty 35.
On the other side of the ball, I think Seth Littrell is coach for his job at North Texas. He’s an offensive minded guy, but he hasn’t had much luck at North Texas since he lost QB Mason Fine. After a slow start to the season, the offense has improved the last 3 weeks scoring 35 at Missouri, 21 at Marshall, and 26 against Liberty. Now he gets a Rice defense that is allowing 37 points per game on 439 yards/game.
I think both offenses will be able to put up points in this one and it will be a close game with neither team having the luxury of taking their foot of the gas. I see this one ending in the 33-30 range.
Kansas/Oklahoma State Under 58.5 (-110) (Fan Duel)
I think Kansas had their heart ripped out last week when they almost pulled off one of the season’s biggest upsets against Oklahoma. They let a 4th quarter lead get away which included two almost 4th down spots where Caleb Williams somehow found a way to get the first downs (one went all the way for a TD). I just don’t see this team (that hasn’t beaten an FBS opponent since 2019) being able to pull themselves off the mat after that game as they now have to go on the road and play what is probably the best defense in the conference. The Oklahoma State defense has allowed only 20 points and 316 yards per game this season with Kansas now being one of the weaker teams they’ve faced. I think they will do a good job of shutting down the Jayhawk offense.
On the other side of the ball, I don’t think Mike Gundy will look to run up the score. With a Big 12 championship still on the table, I think he just wants to get a lead and get out of there without suffering any big injuries. I think he will continue to run the ball against a soft Kansas run defense and let the clock bleed in the second half. I see this one being a 35-14 type game.
Ole Miss @ Auburn (-110) (Fan Duel)
Ole Miss is now at the back-end of just a brutal 5 week stretch – @ Alabama (blowout loss), vs Arkansas (1 point win that came down to the last second), @ Tennessee (insane atmosphere with fans throwing stuff on the field), vs LSU and now it winds down under the lights at Auburn. A very tough environment and a strong opponent for an Ole Miss team that I believe is probably a little worn down right now. QB Matt Corral was banged up last week after running the ball 30 times in the Tennessee game and I’m not sure if he’s 100% right now. This is only Ole Miss 3rd true road game, and they haven’t looked too good in the first two – getting crushed by Alabama and playing a coin flip game at Tennessee.
Auburn is quietly putting together a good season and is coming off a bye so they are rested and prepared for this game. The Ole Miss defense that was hyped as improved early in the season, has struggled since conference play has started and Auburn’s offense is coming off a strong showing at Arkansas where they put up 38 points and 427 yards.
I think this is a coin flip game if both teams were fresh, but with this game having such a contrast in recovery (Auburn coming off a bye, while Ole Miss is finish a brutal 5 week stretch) I think there is a clear edge to Auburn here. It will be close for awhile, but I like Auburn to pull away in the second half and win by two scores.
Official Plays – Week 9
Texas/Baylor Under 62.5 (-115) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units
North Texas/Rice Over 55.5 (-110) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Kansas/Oklahoma State Under 58.5 (-110) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Ole Miss @ Auburn (-110) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
MikeyLo Bets 