NCAA Week 10 – Official Plays

Rather than creating a new post for each bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.

Last Week Recap

Last Week: 4-2, +8.30 Units
YTD: 49-34, +31.25 Units

Last Week

Last week I told you I thought I was seeing the board clearly and had a good feel for things right now and that proved to be the case again this week. I’m obviously really excited about a +8.30 Unit week! The UNT/Rice Over was a bad play but it was also a little unlucky in that Rice QB Wiley Green left the game in the 1st Quarter with an injury. If you read my writeup you know that his big game against UAB was a big part of why I was playing it. That being said, we almost got lucky in OT there. The Auburn and Michigan State reads were perfect. The Texas/Baylor Under cashed by over 7 points. I almost got that score exactly right in my writeup and it went just like I said “a little sweaty at times” but in the end we cashed it. The Oklahoma State/Kansas game went about how we expected as well except Gundy ran up the score to make it way too close for comfort. I know some of you may not have gotten the same number I did and ended up losing. I’m sorry about that, but I do strongly encourage you to put your bets in as soon as I tweet them out to make sure you are getting the same lines I am getting. Overall it was a huge week and I’m back to my high water mark for the year. Let’s stay hot!

Tip Jar

While certainly not required, my tip jar is open on my Twitter profile.

Tip Jar

I do spend a ton of time and effort on these picks, and if you’ve benefited from them and are so inclined, I’ll include my info below. It would be nice to use that money to take my wife out for a nice dinner as a thank you for putting up with me watching non-stop football in the Fall.

Venmo: Mike-Loszach
Cash App: $MikeyLoBets
Bitcoin Address: 3HzMaigNo3M3vk5cS7CyLKRs6Y6asBtAMC

On to Week 10….

Week 10 Official Play Write-Ups

Northern Illinois (+5) (-115) @ Kent State (Bet Online) – WEDNESDAY

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Mid-week MACtion is back! What a beautiful time to be alive! You might be able to get a better line on Fan Duel or Draft Kings but being an Illinois resident I can’t bet on Illinois college teams on those books because we have annoying laws in place here.

Northern Illinois has been the surprise of the MAC this year. They’ve won 5 games in a row and are undefeated in Conference play, highlighted by two impressive road wins at Toledo and at Central Michigan.

Their strength has been their ability to run the ball. They have put up really impressive performances on the ground this year running for over 197 yards five weeks in a row. They haven’t rushed for less than 162 yards in a game all season (and the 162 came @ Michigan). Stopping the run just so happens to be Kent State’s weakness. They’ve given up more than 300 yards on the ground in 3 games this season (Texas A&M, Buffalo, and at Western Michigan). I believe the Northern Illinois offense will be able to have a lot of success on the ground and as a result, put up plenty of points against this weak Golden Flashes defense.

The Kent State offense is a pretty strong unit as well. I think they will be able to move the ball as well, but I am counting on the NIU running attack to dictate the tempo of the game and maybe keep the Kent State offense off the field a little more than they are used to. Kent State has really only played one solid MAC team this year (Western Michigan) and they lost that game 64-31. I think this is a close game with a slight edge to NIU so I love getting 5 points here. I see this one ending around a 3-point Huskie win.

Central Michigan (+10.5) (-114) @ Western Michigan (Fan Duel) – WEDNESDAY

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We’ve got more MACtion in our second play. I don’t have a ton for this writeup. To be honest with you, I just think +10.5 is way too many points here. Western Michigan is 2-2 in the MAC but the wins have come against lower tier MAC teams (Buffalo & Kent State). When they have had to play better teams in the conference, they’ve been blown out – losing 45-20 to Ball State & 34-15 to Toledo.

Central Michigan has fared better in the conference, beating Toledo 26-23 and losing by one last week to NIU 39-38 in a game where they were pretty banged up and had a bad snap when they were attempting a game winning FG on the last play of the game. Both teams have good QB’s and this just looks like a really even matchup to me on paper. I see this one ending up being around a FG game so I love the idea of getting more than 10 points.

Army/Air Force Under 38 (-110) (Draft Kings)

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We’ve got two service academies in this one. Service academies run the triple option, meaning they run the ball almost every play which means the clock is almost always moving and their drives take a really long time. Since 2005, when two service academies play the Under is 38-9-1 for this very reason. The oddsmakers are finally starting to adjust as the lines are coming in a little lower (I was hoping to get around 40), but I still don’t think the line is low enough.

As a point of reference, when these two teams played last year the final score was 10-7. When they played in 2019 the final score was 17-13. When they played in 2018 the score was 17-14. When they played in 2017 the score was 21-0. Get the picture? It’s just really hard for games to be high scoring when both offenses run the triple option. The clock is always running and the offenses just aren’t designed for quick, explosive plays. They are designed for long drives that wear down the opposing defense over time. But since both these defenses practice against the triple option all the time when they go against their own offense… they are used to defending it. It’s all assignment football. They’re more prepared and better coached to stop it than most defenses that aren’t used to playing against it. The only thing that can crush an under in a game like this is a bunch of fumbles setting up short fields for the other team. That is a possibility with the triple option. But as long as both teams take care of the football, we should be in good shape here. I’ll predict a 20-10 game.

Wake Forest @ North Carolina (-2) (Draft Kings)

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Wake Forest has been one of the biggest surprises of the year going 8-0 to open the season. North Carolina has been one of the biggest disappointments of the year dropping games to Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Florida State, and Notre Dame (but that’s a respectful loss). So on the surface the undefeated team in the driver’s seat to win the ACC should be favored… but they’re not. And that makes sense to me, because I still don’t believe they are a better team than North Carolina who also has home field advantage in this one.

Wake Forest has benefited from a pretty easy schedule so far this year. What has been their most impressive win? Maybe @ Virginia (but UVA played terrible in that game) or Maybe at Army (but they gave up 56 points in that game). Either way, they haven’t really played anyone that good. Their schedule is about to get tougher with games @ UNC, vs NC State, and @ Clemson in the next 3 weeks.

The Wake Forest defense is not good. They’ve given up 500+ yards in 4 of their last 5 games which included giving up 37 points to Syracuse and 56 points to Army. North Carolina has a high powered offense led by future NFL QB Sam Howell. The Tar Heels have been playing a little better lately beating a Miami team that has been much improved since their change at QB and hanging tough last week in South Bend against a tough ND team. I think their offense will be able to put up huge numbers against Wake Forest. The Wake Forest offense will be able to score on the UNC defense as well, but I think the Tar Heels will be able to come up with more stops than the Demon Decons. When the dust settles, I think the home team will be able to walk away with about a 7-10 point win which could very well start a 3-game Wake Forest losing streak.

Clemson (-3.5) (+100) @ Louisville (Draft Kings)

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I know backing Clemson makes some of you nervous, but to be honest with you I love this play. I have a hunch that the ACC teams that have been a disappointment (Clemson, UNC, Miami) are starting to figure it out a little bit and the books have just gotten around to adjusting to them being bad so now is the time to take advantage.

Louisville is coming off an ugly 28-13 loss to NC State and there is plenty of speculation from those that follow the team that they are worried the team is going to quit. HC Scott Saterfield has never been very popular there and now having lost 3 of 4 games, lots of people are wondering if Louisville is the type of team that will get off the mat.

The Louisville offense lives and dies by the run. That is clearly their strength having rushed for over 200 yards the last four games. But as disappointing as Clemson has been this year, it hasn’t been the fault of the defense. That unit still has plenty of dudes on it and has held 4 of 6 ACC opponents to under 3 yards/carry this year. They’re only giving up 15 points/game this year. I think the defense will really make things tough for the Louisville offense.

The Clemson offense has been really bad this year. There is no disputing that. But I think they are close to turning the corner a little bit. Will Shipley is back at RB and I think that is huge for them. He’s coming off a 25 carry-128 yard performance last week against FSU and I think they will continue to be able to run the ball better. This will take some pressure off QB DJ Uiagalelei who does still have a couple really talented pass catchers to work with in Justyn Ross & Joseph Ngata.

I just think this is a great spot for Clemson. They are a much more talented team and I think they show it on Saturday night with a 10+ point road victory.

Official Plays – Week 10

Northern Illinois (+5) (-115) @ Kent State (Bet Online)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units


Central Michigan (+10.5) (-118) @ Western Michigan (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.54 Units to win 3.00 Units

Army/Air Force Under 38 (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Wake Forest @ North Carolina (-2) (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Clemson (-3.5) (+100) @ Louisville (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.00 Units to win 3.00 Units

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