Week 11: Official Plays
Rather than creating a new post for each bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.
Last Week Recap
Last Week: 5-1, +12.70 Units
YTD: 54-35 (60.6%), +43.95 Units
Another huge week! This is now our 4th winning week in a row. I’ve really hit my stride nicely starting in October and look for that to continue through the end of the year. I just feel like I’m seeing the board very clearly right now and have a great feel for most of these teams.
Last week we had a few easy winners with Central Michigan +10.5 (they won the game outright) and Army/Air Force under 38 (it went to OT and the under still hit). The others were closer… North Carolina, Clemson, and Louisiana but they all went about how I expected. Let’s stay hot!
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On to Week 11….
Week 11 Official Play Write-Ups
With 7 plays this week I’m going to try to keep the writeups a little shorter than usual to keep this from being a novel. We’ll see if I can do it….
Rutgers (+7) (-107) @ Indiana (Bet Online)
This line opened at +6.5 and I was keeping a really close eye on it waiting to see if it would get to +7. When it did I jumped on it quickly because I don’t know how long it will be there.
Indiana’s offense is a problem. They’ve had lots of O-Line issues and injuries at the QB position. For the last couple weeks, they’ve been down to their 3rd QB with both Penix & Tutle out. I don’t know the status of those guys at the time of making this wager, and to be completely honest I don’t think it matters too much. They’re all about the same to me. The offense has really struggled this year gaining fewer than 322 yards in 4 of their last 5 games. The Rutgers defense isn’t spectacular but they are solid. They held Michigan to 275 yards, Northwestern to 402 yards, and Illinois to 297 yards. I think the Indiana offense is in that category as well so the Rutgers defense should be able to keep them in check.
I like betting on Greg Schiano in this type of game. It should be an ugly, low scoring defense game and Schiano is comfortable in those types of matchups. Rutgers still has a shot at bowl eligibility if they win this game and then are able to beat Penn State or Maryland, so I think the team will come out playing hard for him in this one. Indiana can’t reach the 6 wins needed for bowl eligibility thanks to their current 5 game winning streak so motivation may be an issue. Getting +7 is appealing here in a game that I think is close to a tossup.
UCF/SMU Over 58.5 (-110) (Draft Kings)
If these two teams played in recent years the total would have been much higher than it is this year. With Malzahn taking over for Heupel as the UCF head coach the Golden Knights have started playing lower scoring games than in year’s past – but the personnel is still there for them to play in some shootouts. THE UCF offense has shown the ability to still put up big numbers this year, scoring 36 against Boise State, 63 against Bethune-Cookman, 35 at Louisville, 30 at Navy, and 49 at Temple. They are going against a trash defense now in SMU that has given up 428+ yards in 6 of their last 8 games and is averaging 28 points allowed per game in conference play. I think the Golden Knights offense will be able to generate enough offense against this defense.
On the other side of the ball, SMU still has an explosive offense. They’re averaging 40 points/game and 484 yards/game. I see this one ending up in the 38-31 type range.
Georgia Southern/Texas State Over 52.5 (-110) (Draft Kings)
I think both teams are going to struggle to stop each other in this one. Georgia Southern is a run heavy team that has put up 215 yards/game on the ground this season and they are going up against a soft Bobcat run defense that has given up 200+ yards on the ground 4 times this season.
I think Texas State has found a little something with the move from Brady McBride to Tyler Vitt at QB. He had a solid showing last week against ULM and the Georgia Southern pass defense has been leaky in the past giving up more than 400 yards in a couple of conference games. I think both offenses will have the edge over the defense and this game will end up around 31-27.
Miami (-2.5) (-110) @ Florida State (Draft Kings)
Miami has actually turned their season around since the injury to QB D’Eriq King. Tyler Van Dyke has stepped in and done a really good job. They’ve won 3 games in a row and the passing game has really been going good lately passing for 325 yards against NC State, 426 yards @ Pittsburgh, and 389 yards against Georgia Tech. I don’t trust the Seminoles defense to be able to slow down the Hurricane passing attack here.
The Florida State offense has really struggled the last few weeks (they did have to deal with the flu bug going around the team). QB Jordan Travis should be back for this one, but I still think the FSU offense has a ways to go under Norvell. I like the Hurricanes to stay hot and get a road victory here by about 7 points.
Texas A&M (-1) (-110) @ Ole Miss (Draft Kings)
We’ve seen the Ole Miss offense struggle against the better defenses in the conference this year with Alabama and Auburn both holding them to 20-21 points. Now they have to go up against a Texas A&M defense that is probably a step above both of those defense. They are coming off a tremendous effort last week where they held Auburn to 3 points on only 226 yards. The week prior, they held South Carolina to only 185 yards. I think that defense will travel and the D-Line especially will give Ole Miss fits and be able to shut down the running back and get consistent pressure on Matt Corral.
Texas A&M actually still has a shot at the SEC Championship game if they win out and Alabama slips up against Auburn since they beat Alabama head to head. I think they have quietly built a lot of momentum and have things going really good right now. Ole Miss has played a brutal schedule and I still think they are a little worn down. I think A&M will be too physical for them and will pull away in the second half. Give me the Aggies.
Kansas/Texas Under 62 (-110) (Draft Kings)
Texas unders have been doing very well this season. HC Steve Sarkisian has a reputation for putting up big offensive numbers, but he just doesn’t have the players right now. They’ve lost some key players at receiver (Jordan Whittington broke his clavicle against OU & Joshua Moore just entered the transfer portal), have big offensive line issues, and still haven’t figured out the QB position. It looked like they had something going with Casey Thompson, but he’s struggled lately and last week Sark did go back to Hudson Card for a portion of the game (against Iowa State) who also struggled. I know Kansas has a soft defense, but I don’t think the Texas offense is where it needs to be right now to put up a gigantic point total against them the way Oklahoma State did. I see this one ending around 37-17.
Nevada @ San Diego State (+1) (-110) (Draft Kings)
I thought this was a case of the wrong team being favored and it looks like a lot of people agreed with me, as this line as quickly flipped to San Diego State -2.5.
San Diego State has a great defense (particularly against the run), and I think they will be able to really limit the high-powered Wolfpack offense. On the other side of the ball, I think San Diego State will make a concerted effort to pound the run with Greg Bell. I think they will have a lot of success in this area against a Nevada defense that has allowed 200+ yards on the ground to both Kansas State & Fresno State. I think this game will follow a similar script to the Nevada-Kansas State game where Nevada just can’t stop the opponent’s rushing attack at all and their offense gets frustrated by their opponent’s strong defense. I think San Diego State will control the pace of the game and end up winning an ugly game by about a TD.
Official Plays – Week 11
Rutgers (+7) (-107) @ Indiana (Bet Online)
Risking 3.21 Units to win 3.00 Units
UCF/SMU Over 58.5 (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Georgia Southern/Texas State Over 52.5 (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Miami (-2.5) (-110) @ Florida State (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Texas A&M (-1) (-110) @ Ole Miss (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Kansas/Texas Under 62 (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Nevada @ San Diego State (+1) (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
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