Week 12: Official Plays

Rather than creating a new post for each bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.

Last Week Recap

Last Week: 5-4, +2.90 Units
YTD: 59-39 (60.2%), +46.85 Units

I posted on twitter on Sunday morning that I felt a little disappointed in how we ended up this week. I guess that’s a sign of how good we have things rolling right now that we can walk away with +2.90 Units and feel a little bummed out about it. But after starting Saturday morning 3-0 my eyes started to get a little big and losing three night games in a row was a bit of a buzzkill. I had really bad reads on Texas and Texas A&M. In any event, it’s still our 5^th winning week in a row and that is cause for celebration. And in the fact that we won 8 units this weekend in the NFL (make sure you’re following me on Twitter for those picks) and it was another very profitable weekend!

Tip Jar

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I do spend a ton of time and effort on these picks, and if you’ve benefited from them and are so inclined, I’ll include my info below. It would be nice to use that money to take my wife out for a nice dinner as a thank you for putting up with me watching non-stop football in the Fall

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On to Week 12….

Week 12 Official Play Write-Ups

Air Force/Nevada Under 54 (-110) (Draft Kings) – FRIDAY

Disclaimer: A common theme you will see in this week’s post is that the lines have moved from the point I bet them on Sunday afternoon to where they are now as I type this on Monday. If you take this stuff very seriously you need to be jumping on these lines early and having money in multiple books so that you can shop around and find the possible line for yourself. If you just like doing this as a hobby… that’s totally cool. But if your goal is to make sure real money here, you need to give yourself every opportunity to be successful by getting the best possible line. The oddsmakers are really good at what they do… don’t give them any extra help.

You know I love taking the under in a game with a service academy and that’s what we have with Air Force. As you know by now, they run the triple option which means they run the ball on almost every play which keeps the clock running. The chance of an explosion play is a lot less likely with a team that runs the triple option. Their offense is designed to grind out about 4 yards per play and wear down the opponent’s defense while keeping the powerful Nevada offense on the sideline. That will almost certainly be the game plan against Carson Strong and Nevada… keep him off the field as much as possible with long, slow drives that eat the clock. That plays right into our hands.

On the other side of the ball, the explosive Nevada offense has actually taken a step back the last couple weeks. If you watched our San Diego State bet last week against Nevada you saw that QB Carson Strong was clearly playing hurt. The numbers seem to back this up, as the last two weeks they’ve only scored 27 points on 367 yards against San Jose State & 21 points on 358 yards against San Diego State. I think with Strong being banged up right now the offense isn’t quite at the level it was earlier in the season. Also, Strong will have one fewer day to physically recover from the SDSU game with this game being played on a Friday night.

This is a coinflip game, but I think Air Force will be able to limit possessions and Nevada’s offense will have to work harder than usual to score. I see this game ending around 24-21.

Wake Forest @ Clemson (-3) (-115) (Bet Online)

I just don’t see Wake Forest coming into Death Valley and coming away with a victory. I know this is a down year for Clemson but they still have 4 & 5 star players all over the field and are still undefeated at home this season. The strength of Wake Forest is clearly their offense, but I don’t think they have the horses to put up the same kind of performance against this Clemson defense that we’ve seen from them in other matchups. Clemson’s defense is still elite, giving up only 15 points & 310 yards per game. I just don’t think Wake Forest has seen a defense anywhere close to this caliber yet this season and this one is on the road no less. As a point of comparison, they only put up 13 points against Clemson in 2020 & 3 points against them in 2019. I understand that both of those teams were different than this one, but Wake had a strong statistical offense both those years and still struggled with Clemson.

Wake Forest has really struggled on defense, particularly against the run. They are averaging 202 yards per game allowed on the ground and recently they’ve had some really bad performances (North Carolina 330, Army 416, Syracuse 354, Louisville 213). Despite their struggles on offense this season, I think Clemson will be able to overpower this Wake defense and put up plenty of points.

This is a pride game for Clemson. You’re Clemson. You don’t let Wake Forest come into your house and come out with a victory. The team seems to still be playing hard for Dabo and I think they will win this one by double digits.

Florida State (+3.5) (-128) @ Boston College (Fan Duel)

Despite the tough season, Florida State is still playing really hard for Mike Norvell. I think the culture is actually in a good place right now in Tallahaase and that definitely matters this time of year. With the exciting win over Miami last week, a bowl game is still on the table for FSU if they win out and their season finale against Florida is looking more winnable by the minute with how chaotic that program is right now, making this a huge game for the Seminoles.

Both teams have their QBs back in Jordan Travis & Phil Jurkovec and both teams are completely different when they don’t have QB1. Boston College has really struggled to stop the run in ACC play, allowing 227 rushing yards/game in the conference. I think the trend will continue this week as FSU has shown they are capable of running the ball really well having topped 200+ rushing yards/game in 6 games this season. I think they have a lot of positive momentum from last week that will carry over to this week and I think this will end up being a really good game that FSU ends up pulling out by less than one score.

Kansas/TCU Under 66.5 (-110) (Draft Kings)

What kind of madman bets an under on Kansas after losing his under bet on them last week by about 100 points? Me, I guess.

I think last week was a lot more about the state of turmoil that Texas is in right now than it was about Kansas. Give them credit, they played well… but you have to wonder if they can do it again. I think this screams let down after the big win.

I’m not sure who the QB will be for Kansas. Freshman Jalon Daniels was in there because starter Jason Bean was injured. You’d think they would go back to Daniels after such a good game against Texas. If that is the case, you have to wonder if he can repeat his performance now that there is more tape on him out there. He won’t sneak up on anyone the way he most likely did against Texas. If they go back to Bean, that’s the same QB they’ve had all year when they’ve been averaging 19 points/game (even with the 57 against Texas).

TCU is a team without a coach right now. Jerry Kill is the interim coach and he always was more of a run the ball type at NIU & Minnesota. They’ve been without their top QB & top RB for the last few weeks. They only scored 17 points last week on 335 yards.

Both defenses are bad, but I still have major questions about both offenses. I just think this line is inflated by Kansas crazy game last week and TCU giving up a million points to Oklahoma State this week. I think this will be a more normal week and this thing will settle in the 35-21 type range.

This is the type of game you don’t watch. You just check in periodically and do the math in your head for scoring pace, shift uncomfortably in your seat, and then check back ten minutes later… and hopefully when the dust settles we have a winner.

Official Plays – Week 12

Air Force/Nevada Under 54 (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Wake Forest @ Clemson (-3) (-115) (Bet Online)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units

Florida State (+3.5) (-128) @ Boston College (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.84 Units to win 3.00 Units

Kansas/TCU Under 66.5 (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units