NCAA Week 13 – Official Plays

Rather than creating a new post for each bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.

Last Week Recap

Last Week: 5-2, +8.40 Units
YTD: 64-41 (60.9%), +55.25 Units

Last Week

Another great week! We started 2-0, +5.00 Units thanks to some mid-week MACtion, but then gave 5.60 Units back on Friday night with the egg that LA Tech laid and a heartbreaking loss on the Air Force/Nevada under that would have won had the game not gone to OT. Those 6.6 unit swings are always hard to swallow.

But we bounced back with a 3-0 Saturday! The Clemson game went exactly like we handicapped, Florida State won outright, and the under in Kansas/TCU was never really in doubt (except for a moment when we feared that game would also go to OT).

Overall a +8.40 Unit week is something to be proud of (and it could have been a +14 unit week if not for the bad luck in the Air Force game). I continue to have a really good feel for these teams. Things might start to get a little weird for the rest of the season. We only have one normal week left (Rivalry week!) and coaches are getting fired already and some teams are in quit mode. Then in bowl games, it’s very important to look at who is opting out and what teams are motivated and what teams are not motivated. We also have the FCS playoffs starting this week. But let’s not get to far ahead of ourselves….

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On to Week 13….

Week 13 Official Play Write-Ups

Disclaimer: A common theme you will see in my NCAA posts is that the lines have moved from the point I bet them on Sunday afternoon to where they are now as I type this on Monday. If you take this stuff very seriously you need to be jumping on these lines early and having money in multiple books so that you can shop around and find the possible line for yourself. If you just like doing this as a hobby… that’s totally cool. But if your goal is to make some real money here, you need to give yourself every opportunity to be successful by getting the best possible line. The oddsmakers are really good at what they do… don’t give them any extra help.

Kansas State (+2.5) (-104) @ Texas (Fan Duel) – FRIDAY


Those of you that follow me on Twitter saw that I originally bet this at +2 -110 on Draft Kings, but shortly after that Fan Duel hung a +2.5 -104 and I was able to cash out my bet on DK for the full amount and re-bet it on Fan Duel at the better line & juice. I’m surprised they let me do that. Nice perk. I wonder if they got hit with a lot of those cash outs?

Texas is a definite “quit team” candidate here. They’ve lost six games in a row, including an embarrassing home loss to Kansas and some brutal late collapses. They are unable to reach a bowl game, even with a win against Kansas State. It’s been chaos for them lately: They had a WR hop in the transfer portal after being seen arguing with the coach, they had a video leaked of a defensive coach yelling at the team on the bus after the Iowa State game, and last week HC Steve Sarkisian told the media that they could have as many as 33 new players on next year’s team… meaning many of these players are going to be shown the door. And they know it. It’s tough to see this team, with nothing to play for, getting off the mat here and giving a spirited effort in the season finale.

On the other sideline, Kansas State is the guy in the fight that keeps coming after you until the final bell. Chris Kleiman runs a tough program that has won 4 out of their last 5 games and has a bowl game to look forward to. I’m sure they’d love to get one last shot in on Texas before they bail for the SEC. The Wildcats have a pretty strong defense which is bad news for a Texas team with huge issues on the O-Line, limited skill players with RB Bijan Robinson & WR Jordan Whittington out for the year, and both QB’s struggling. I think Kansas State will want this game more and it will show. I see them winning by a TD or more.

Iowa (+3.5) (-122) @ Nebraska (Fan Duel) – FRIDAY

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When I think of the Iowa-Nebraska game I think of setting up the Christmas decorations. This game is always Black Friday afternoon, which is always when the Christmas decorations come out for me.

Nebraska has played a lot of close games this year, but they’ve lost them all on their way to a 3-8 record. Iowa, on the other hand, will end up with a 10-win season if they can get this one in Lincoln. Iowa has one of the best defenses in the conference and I just don’t trust Adrian Martinez against a really strong defense. In the last 3 games against Purdue, Ohio State, and Wisconsin Martinez has thrown 7 interceptions. I think this Iowa defense will be able to force him into mistakes and that trend will continue. In a game that is expected to be close, TO’s can make all the difference.

On the other side of the ball, Nebraska’s defense gave up 252 rushing yards last week to Wisconsin on 8.1 yards/carry. Iowa is a team that wants to run the ball as well. They are coming off a game where they ran the ball 52 times against Illinois and threw it only 18 times. They’re not as good as Wisconsin, but I think we’ll see a similar game plan from them. And I think they’ll have enough success with it to come out a winner. I see Iowa winning this one in a fun, close game.

Army (+3.5) (-110) @ Liberty (Draft Kings)

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It’s been a bit of a disappointing season for Hugh Freeze and Liberty. They were coming off a 10-1 2020 season that included a bowl win over Coastal Carolina and had their stud QB Malik Willis coming back. But 2021 hasn’t gone as well, with some disappointing losses: 24-21 @ Syracuse, 31-28 @ ULM, and 42-14 last week against Louisiana.

What’s concerning for Liberty is they have had a hard time stopping the run at times this year. Syracuse, North Texas, and UMass have all rushed for more than 210 yards against them this year and none of those teams are very impressive. Army runs the ball as well as anyone. I think the Army triple option will have a lot of success against Liberty and wear down their defense, while keeping playmaker QB Malik Willis on the sidelines. I think the Army defense will be able to get more stops than the Liberty defense en route to a Army straight up win.

Wake Forest @ Boston College (+5.5) (-110) (Draft Kings)

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I mentioned on the Bearded Bettors podcast last week that I thought it was more likely that Boston College would beat Wake Forest than Florida State. I got the Florida State prediction right, now let’s hope I get the Wake Forest prediction right as well.

Boston College is a much better team when QB Phil Jurkovec is in the lineup as he’s back from his injury. They lost last week against Florida State, but I think the Seminoles have some good momentum going right now so I’m not too worried about that. They were actually kind of impressive in the way they fought back in a game where they trailed by multiple scores. They can finish their season with a winning 7-5 record if they are able to beat Wake Forest at home. I think they will.

Wake Forest has looked a lot more Wake Forest-y since their schedule started getting tougher. They lost to North Carolina, narrowly beat NC State, and then got crushed by Clemson. They give up 58, 42, and 48 points in these 3 games. They just can’t stop anyone right now and I think that will continue this week against a really good QB. Their offense is good, but I think the BC defense will be able to muster up enough stops to pull out a win in a high scoring back and forth game.

Oklahoma (+3) (-120) @ Oklahoma State (Draft Kings)

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I guess I should have waited and gotten +3.5. A rare miss by me on the line movement. Hopefully it won’t matter.

This is similar to last week’s Wake Forest-Clemson matchup to me in how I look at it. To me the gap between how good the Oklahoma offense is vs. the Oklahoma State offense is wider than the gap of how good Oklahoma State defense is vs. the Oklahoma defense.

I’ve actually been impressed with the Oklahoma defense since they started getting their players back. Last week they held Iowa State to 28 points on 7 sacks. I think the Oklahoma State offense is going to struggle to generate much against this unit.

On the other side of the ball, I still trust Lincoln Riley to be able to figure out a way to score enough here. I know they’ve looked awful at times and the Oklahoma State defense has been great this year, but they’ve also played a really weak schedule the last 4 weeks that I think is inflating the number. I think this will be a great game but in the end Riley gets the best of Gundy again.

Notre Dame (-15.5) (-110) @ Stanford (Draft Kings)

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This is one where I definitely wasn’t on the wrong side of the line movement. I did a double take when I saw that Notre Dame was laying less than -17 and quickly put 4 units on it. As I type this a few hours later the line is already up to -17.

I know people don’t want to hear this, but Notre Dame is still quietly lurking in the playoff discussion. They only have one loss on the season (to an undefeated Cincinnati team). They’ve been rolling lately with five straight double digit wins. The defense has played really well, holding their opponents to under 279 yards in each of their last 3 games.

Stanford is in the middle of a six game losing streak. They won’t be going bowling this year and aside from a confusing win against USC they haven’t done much worth remembering this year. They are coming of a 30 point loss to a pretty bad California team in which they were outgained 636-282. They’ve been outgained by 245+ yards in each of their last 3 games. This looks to me like another “quit team.” They have nothing to play for and it’s been a brutal season. Notre Dame still has everything to play for and will want to make an impression on the playoff committee. I see them running up the score and winning this one by 20+. This is my favorite play of the week.

Official Plays – Week 13

Kansas State (+2.5) (-104) @ Texas (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.12 Units to win 3.00 Units

Iowa (+3.5) (-122) @ Nebraska (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.66 Units to win 3.00 Units

Army (+3.5) (-110) @ Liberty (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Wake Forest @ Boston College (+5.5) (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Oklahoma (+3) (-120) @ Oklahoma State (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.60 Units to win 3.00 Units

Notre Dame (-15.5) (-110) @ Stanford (Draft Kings)
Risking 4.40 Units to win 4.00 Units

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