Official Plays – Week 4

Rather than creating a new post for each futures bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets and subscribe to my Patreon to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.

Last Week Recap

Last Week: 5-1, +11.70 Units
YTD: 15-8, +21.93 Units

Last WeekObviously really excited with the way this week went. Air Force/Wyoming Under, WKU, GT TT Under & OSU 1H we’re right side easy wins. We we’re probably a little fortunate to get ODU & a push on Cincinnati (some people won with -20.5). We we’re probably a little unlucky to lose SMU when you look at the box score. So things pretty much evened out. Great week!

I said this last week & I’ll say it again: September is still a bit of a grind. Some weird things can happen this month and this slate is a bit of a grind with so many big spreads. October/November is where things typically really start rolling. That being said, the results have been solid so far so let’s keep rolling!

Quick Housekeeping Items

Patreon

MikeyLoBets is on Patreon. Patreon subscribers will get early access to my NCAA Football plays and writeups this year as well as my NFL Pass Attempt model projections & plays. In addition to that, I plan on having 1-2 patreon only live streams a month where we flash bet a college football game (only available on Draft Kings in certain states). I made a ton of money on that last year.

Instagram
MikeyLoBets is now on Instagram too! I’m going to try to get some more stuff up there during the season. Please follow @MikeyLoBets! Is Tik Tok next? Not likely….

Okay, that’s enough of all that. Let’s get to the writeups!

Week 4 Official Play Write-Ups

I’m keeping the writeups a little shorter this year in the interest of my time and also because by the time I’m able to get to the writeups a lot of the lines have moved a lot any way.

Patreon Post

Boise State (-16) (-110) @ UTEP (Caesars)          

The books (as well as myself) we’re too high on UTEP heading into the season. The lines have reflected that as UTEP is 0-4 against the spread with a -11.8 non cover margin. The books still haven’t adjusted enough to how bad this UTEP team is in my opinion. They are coming off an embarrassing 27-10 loss to lowly New Mexico (who Boise beat by 17, but it should have been more.. we we’re on that game). They turned the ball over 7 times and mustered only 353 yards of total offense. They are a mess right now. They lost all their explosiveness with Jacob Cowing transferring to Arizona. Teams have figured out how to defend them and they have no adjustment. Boise State’s defense is pretty nasty, ranking #7 in defensive success rate. I think they will suffocate this UTEP offense. The Boise offense has been bad, but I think is due for a little positive regression. Even if they don’t improve, I still like Boise to cover this game on the backs of their defense, but I think we will see a little bit of improvement from the offense as well. I like Boise to win this one around 31-7.

TCU (-2) (-110) @ SMU (Draft Kings)

I love the idea of Sonny Dykes getting 2 weeks to prepare for this game. I think he will some great schemes rolled up his sleeve to attack this SMU defense that is #72 in EPA/pass. I think the Horned Frogs will be able to score early and often in this one. Conversely the SMU offense hasn’t quite been fully clicking yet. They have faced 3 soft defenses in North Texas, Lamar & Maryland and despite that QB Tanner Mordecai is only completing 55% in his last 2 games for only 6.8 yards/attempt with 3 INT. That’s not the production they are going to need from the QB this season, especially in a game like this where they will need to score plenty to win. For whatever it’s worth to you, the road team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 games in this rivalry. Probably not a big deal, but since it works in our favor why not throw it in the writeup =). I like TCU by a TD in this one.

FIU @ Western Kentucky (-26.5) (-110) (Draft Kings)

FIU might be the worst team in the country. They rank dead last (131st) in Bill Connelly’s SP+ Rankings. They needed OT to beat FCS Bryant by 1 point & then got crushed by a pretty bad Texas State team 41-12. They have given up 450+ yards in both these games. Now they have to a play a team with a good offense. It should get ugly. WKU is under valued a little bit right now. Everyone saw them struggle a little bit with Austin Peay in Week 0 and jumped to conclusions, but they then crushed a bad Hawaii team and last week deserved to win on the road against a Big Ten team in Indiana. They are one of the most “unlucky” teams according to post-game win expectancy right now. I think the offense has been steadily improving with new QB Austin Reed and this is the perfect opponent for the Hilltopper to get back to putting up the video game numbers that they did last year. I like WKU to take out their frustrations from last week and score in the 50’s in this one.

Indiana @ Cincinnati (-14) (-110) (Caesars)

Indiana has been the luckiest team in the country so far according to post-game win expectancy. They may be 3-0 on paper, but they have 1.6 more wins than they should be win expectancy. And that doesn’t account for the TD the refs took away from Illinois is the opener either. I think their luck runs out this week. I think they still have major issues on the OLine and QB Connor Bazelak hasn’t impressed me. I think the Cincinnati defense will give them big trouble and generate a lot of negative plays or turnovers. Cincy kept Miami (OH) in the game last week with bad turnovers, but outgained them by 300+ yards. Fickell is a good coach that will hopefully place a priority on getting the TOs cleaned up this week. I like Cincy by 20+ here.

Arkansas State @ Old Dominion (-3) (-110) (Caesars)

I had Arkansas State power ranked really low to start the season. They beat an FCS team in their opener convincingly, but then had to play at Ohio State and at Memphis. They gave up 538 yards to OSU & 547 yards to Memphis. This will be their 3rd road game in 3 weeks and given their opponents I think it’s fair to expect them to be a little worn down. Even if they aren’t, I believe Old Dominion is a better team. This will be an opportunity for ODU’s struggling offense to get going against a soft defense. The offense has struggled early in the year but has played a pretty solid schedule. They have a really good TE & WR that should create a matchup problem for Arkansas State. ODU’s defense has played solid against Virginia Tech & Virginia so hopefully will be able to build off that against a weaker opponent. This is a game that ODU will need to get to a bowl. I think they are the better team, playing at home against an opponent playing their 3rd road game in a row. I like ODU to win this one by about 10 points.

Iowa (-7) (-115) @ Rutgers (Fan Duel)

Talk about an ugly game. Apologies in advance for making you guys watch this one. I think Rutgers offense is in serious trouble in this one against a very strong Iowa D. Their top 2 QBs are game time decisions according to HC Greg Schiano, and the info I’m hearing on the message boards seems to think it’s more unlikely than not that either play. QB1 hasn’t played all year, so even if he does play he hasn’t practiced much and will be thrown into the fire facing Iowa right off the bat. Rutgers wasn’t able to score an offensive TD last week against a really bad Temple team. Yes they are at home, under the lights but defense always travels. I just have a really hard time seeing Rutgers move the ball at all in this one and Iowa defense is one of the best in the Nation year after year at forcing TOs. I think the defense will do enough to put the offense in a good position. The offense is brutal, but should be able to do just enough and let the defense carry them to victory. Maybe something like 20-7 final score.

Louisiana (-9.5) (-110) @ UL-Monroe (Draft Kings)

Full disclosure I don’t understand this line. My numbers have Louisiana by more than 2 TD in this one. I immediately jumped on the -9.5 and the line quickly moved to around -11, but then the next day got bet back to -9. Somebody sees this one differently than me. I guess we’ll see what happens.

I fully acknowledge that this Louisiana team isn’t on the same level as the Ragin Cajun teams from the past few years under Billy Napier. But they are sill a lot better than ULM. I think lots of people are overreacting to last week’s loss against Rice, but don’t forget the week before they crushed an Eastern Michigan team that then went into Arizona and beat Arizona State on the road last week. ULL put up 459 yards in that EMU game. I think they should be able to move the ball consistently against ULM and walk away with a pretty comfortable road victory to open up Sun Belt play.

Official Plays – Week 4

Boise State (-16) (-110) @ UTEP (Caesars)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

TCU (-2) (-110) @ SMU (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

FIU @ Western Kentucky (-26.5) (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Indiana @ Cincinnati (-14) (-110) (Caesars)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Arkansas State @ Old Dominion (-3) (-110) (Caesars)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Iowa (-7) (-115) @ Rutgers (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units

Louisiana (-9.5) (-110) @ UL-Monroe (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

 

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