Rather than creating a new post for each futures bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets and subscribe to my Patreon to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.
Last Week Recap
Last Week: 4-3, +2.10 Units
YTD: 19-11, +24.03 Units
WKU covered the -26.5 spread by more than 40 points. Iowa & TCU we’re pretty easy winners. Cincy was an easy win that almost got away from us. Boise State & Louisiana we’re clear wrong side losers & Clemson was the wrong side as well.
Last week was a bit of a grind. ODU was maybe a lucky push at +3 and I know some people got worse numbers and unfortunately had a 4-4 week. I wrote last week that despite our early success September can still be a grind. With that being said, I’m pretty content with a “down” week being 4-3 or 4-4. I’m excited to get into consistent October conference play soon.
Quick Housekeeping Items
Patreon
MikeyLoBets is on Patreon. Patreon subscribers will get early access to my NCAA Football plays and writeups this year as well as my NFL Pass Attempt model projections & plays. In addition to that, I plan on having 1-2 patreon only live streams a month where we flash bet a college football game (only available on Draft Kings in certain states). I made a ton of money on that last year.
Instagram
MikeyLoBets is now on Instagram too! I’m going to try to get some more stuff up there during the season. Please follow @MikeyLoBets!
Okay, that’s enough of all that. Let’s get to the writeups!
Week 5 Official Play Write-Ups
I’m keeping the writeups a little shorter this year in the interest of my time and also because by the time I’m able to get to the writeups a lot of the lines have moved a lot any way.
Washington (-3) (-110) @ UCLA (Caesars)
I think UCLA is a little inflated here as a result of playing one of the softest schedules in the nation. Their toughest games have been against South Alabama & Colorado (and both those teams actually had some success against them through the air). Neither of those teams come even close to the level that Washington is at. Kalen DaBoer has them playing great football right now & QB Michael Penix Jr is playing his best football since he was with DaBoer at Indiana in 2020. In a game that predicts to be a shootout (current total around 66) I like Washington to be the team that gets more stops. UCLA has shown in ability to stop themselves at times having a much higher penalty per game total than Washington and more turnovers. Washington also has 19 sacks already and has the ability to get UCLA behind the sticks with some negative plays from time to time. I like the Huskies to pull away and win this one around 38-30.
Purdue @ Minnesota (-7.5) (-115) (Fan Duel)
Purdue/Minnesota Under 53.5 (-115) (Draft Kings)
I’m going with a rare double dip on this game. Minnesota has been incredible to start the season. They’ve blown everyone out, most recently on the road against Michigan State, and haven’t allowed a non-garbage time TD all season. Purdue can’t run the ball (especially against a defense like Minnesota) and their starting QB Aidan O’Connell is battling a rib injury. He didn’t play last week vs FAU and they we’re only able to win that game by 2 points, with the backup struggling once the opening scripted plays we’re done. O’Connell is questionable for this one. I like these plays even if he does play as I don’t think he’ll be 100%, but obviously like them more if he doesn’t play. Minnesota plays at one of the slowest paces in the country (#130, slower than the service academies right now) & Purdue is typically more conservative on the road. They have strong under trends when they are on the road. Brohm will be even more conservative if he has a backup starting a road conference game. I think Minnesota will get a two score lead in the first half and completely take the air out of the ball in the second half, grinding out a comfortable win. I’ll say Minnesota 31-17.
Illinois (+7) (-105) @ Wisconsin (Draft Kings)
I think the schedule sets up really well for Illinois here. They haven’t had to game plan for a game since they played Virginia on 9/10. Since then they had a bye on 9/17, played FCS Chattanooga on Thurs. 9/22 & now finally have another competitive game on October 1. That means they’ve had about 3 full weeks to get healthy and game plan for this game. You know this game means a little something more to Illini HC Brett Bieliema having formerly coached at Wisconsin. On the other hand, Wisconsin is coming off a game against Ohio State so they are anything but rested after having played one of the nation’s best teams. The Illini have been playing really good football dating back to the end of last season, going 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games. In a game like this with a low total & 2 teams that want to run the ball, I really like getting a full TD. I think the Illini match up pretty well with Wisconsin here. They have been playing strong defense, currently ranking #4 in defensive PPA/drive & #19 in run defense according to PFF. Obviously Wisconsin wants to run the ball, but if this run defense can slow them down on first & second down and force them into 3rd down throws that will be huge. Wisconsin is just 115th in EPA/pass and QB Graham Mertz is often INT happy. If they can force Wisconsin into a TO or two, they have the potential to win this game against a Wisconsin team that lost at home to Washington State. I’ll go with a Wisconsin 21-20 score prediction.
Georgia State @ Army (-6.5) (-110) (Draft Kings)
When you’re an 0-4 team like Georgia State is and morale might be a little low, the very last team you want to see on your schedule is a team like Army. Army is a very physical team and the triple option can be frustrating as hell to play against. This won’t be a fun game for Georgia State. Their defense has given up 35+ points in all 4 games this season, including giving up 42 & 41 the last 2 weeks at home vs Charlotte & Coastal Carolina. Coastal ran it down their throats last week going for 52-272-5.2 on the ground. I expect more of the same from Army this week. They’re averaging 38.3 ppg & 285 rush yards per game against a pretty respectable schedule (@ Coastal Carolina, vs UTSA, vs Villanova). I think they win this one pretty comfortably and pull away in the second half as Georgia State loses some of it’s spirit late in the game. I’ll go with Army 35-21.
Central Michigan/Toledo Over 58 (-105) (Draft Kings)
This looks like a fun MAC game on paper. Both these teams project to be near the top of the conference and both of them play at a pretty fast pace (CMU #11 & Toledo #30). The CMU defense has struggled with every good offense they’ve faced, allowing 58 to Oklahoma State, 38 to South Alabama & 33 to Penn State. Toledo hasn’t played a very tough schedule, but put up 55 points against UMass & allowed 77 to Ohio State. I just think this total was set too low. Both teams have explosive QBs and I see this one turning in to a fast-paced shootout type MACtion game. I’ll say Toledo 37-Central Michigan 28
Wake Forest/Florida State Over 64 (-110) (Draft Kings)
I had my eye on this one all week, but had to wait to see what was going to happen with the Hurricane. It now looks like the weather isn’t going to be a factor, so I’m comfortable firing on this one. I think you could see this line go up a few points between now and game time. We saw how good the Wake Forest passing attack was last week against Clemson. FSU won’t be able to generate a pass rush and Hartman should be able to pick them apart. On the other side of the ball FSU shouldn’t have much trouble with that soft Wake defense. QB Jordan Travis has been playing at an elite level this season and the coaches haven’t even let him run much yet. That could change this week in a big conference game. I could see both teams scoring 35 in this one pretty comfortably.
Georgia (-28) (-110) @ Missouri (Caesars)
In a game like this, a team like Georgia can pretty much name the score against a team like Missouri. We saw how bad Missouri was last week, as Auburn tried everything possible to hand them that game and they wouldn’t take it. Then stud freshmen WR Luther Burden took all the Mizzou stuff off his social media, posted something hinting at transferring and mysteriously showed up on the injury report. Things aren’t going well for Mizzou. So the only question is, does Georgia feel like covering the spread here? Last week we saw the coaches manufacture adversity through their play calling to keep that Kent State game much closer than it should have been. Classic early season coaching move for a National Championship caliber team that is getting positive press. They could have won that game by 70, but kept it pretty close and now can use that all week in practice as motivation. I think they will come out with their hair on fire to get that “bad taste” out of their mouth. This is the same team that went into South Carolina and beat a Gamecock team that is a lot better than Missouri 48-7 two weeks ago. Missouri should have a hard time scoring in this one & Georgia should break 40 easily.
Indiana @ Nebraska TT Over 33.5 (-115) (Draft Kings)
I’ve been on the fade Indiana train all season: Taking Illinois, Western Kentucky & Cincinnati against them. All 3 have covered for us. The thing is Indiana got a really lucky in those first 2 games (they won but didn’t cover, but had no business winning either), so not everyone has caught on yet to just how bad they are.
While Nebraska’s defense blows, their offense is pretty solid. OC Mark Whipple is one of the better OC’s out there and he is coaching for his reputation now that Scott Frost is gone. He’ll be motivated to put up numbers and make sure that everyone can see that he’s not the problem (especially after the comments Pat Narduzzi made about him this offseason). Indiana’s defense is bad and there should be plenty of scoring opportunities for the Cornhuskers. Fortunately their defense is bad enough that they should keep a bad team like Indiana in the game, forcing the offense to keep their foot on the gas.
Official Plays – Week 5
Washington (-3) (-110) @ UCLA (Caesars)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Purdue @ Minnesota (-7.5) (-115) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units
Purdue/Minnesota Under 53.5 (-115) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units
Illinois (+7) (-105) @ Wisconsin (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.15 Units to win 3.00 Units
Georgia State @ Army (-6.5) (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Central Michigan/Toledo Over 58 (-105) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.15 Units to win 3.00 Units
Wake Forest @ Florida State Over 64 (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Georgia (-28) (-110) @ Missouri (Caesars)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Indiana @ Nebraska TT Over 33.5 (-115) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units
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