Official Plays – Week 6

Rather than creating a new post for each futures bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets and subscribe to my Patreon to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.

Last Week Recap

Last Week: 3-6, -10.80 Units
YTD: 22-17, +13.23 Units

Last Week

This week wasn’t any fun. I also had my worst week last year in Week 5. Maybe that’s a coincidence. Maybe there is a reason to it. I don’t know. I went back and read what I wrote last year after that time and it applies again this year: Gross week. It’s never fun, but if you’ve been gambling for awhile you understand that these days happen. The trick is to keep your cool and not do anything dumb in the short-term. We are playing the long game here. We are still up over 14+ units on the season. I’m usually good for one week like this a year. We will bounce back. It’s a marathon, not a sprint.

Washington was a brutal pick. Apparently UCLA was playing opossum during their non-conference schedule, because they looked miles better against Washington. We beat the Minnesota closing number by over 3 points and lost that one outright (that’s getting a little old haha). Army was a bad pick. Minnesota Under & Illinois +7 cashed without a sweat. I didn’t get a chance to watch the afternoon overs (FSU/WF & CMU/Toledo), just from checking scores it looked like we we’re in pretty good shape at halftime but ended up going 0-2. UGA -28 was a bad pick & Nebraska TT over cashed for us. All in all a pretty bad week. Flush it and move on.

Quick Housekeeping Items


MikeyLoBets is on Patreon. Patreon subscribers will get early access to my NCAA Football plays and writeups this year as well as my NFL Pass Attempt model projections & plays. In addition to that, I plan on having 1-2 patreon only live streams a month where we flash bet a college football game (only available on Draft Kings in certain states). I made a ton of money on that last year.

MikeyLoBets is now on Instagram too! I’m going to try to get some more stuff up there during the season. Please follow @MikeyLoBets!

Okay, that’s enough of all that. Let’s get to the writeups!

Week 6 Official Play Write-Ups

I’m keeping the writeups a little shorter this year in the interest of my time and also because by the time I’m able to get to the writeups a lot of the lines have moved a lot any way.

Patreon Pic

Nebraska @ Rutgers (+4.5) (-115) (Fan Duel)

I think this is a winnable game for the Scarlet Knights. Greg Schiano gets his team to play hard and this is a game they will have circled as a winnable conference game. Throw in a Friday night, under the lights crowd and I think this is a good spot for Rutgers. This is Nebraska’s first true road game of the year. They lost their one neutral site game to a bad Northwestern team and went 0-5 on the road last year. I think Rutgers will be able to run the ball in this one and keep Mark Whipple’s offense on the sidelines. Nebraska’s run D has been really bad:

Vs Northwestern: 47-214-4.6
vs FCS North Dakota: 33-175-5.3
vs Georgia Southern: 30-233-7.8
vs Oklahoma: 54-312-5.8

Rutgers has had success running the ball against the weaker defenses they’ve faced, rushing for 212 vs Boston College, 313 vs FCS Wagner & 142 vs Temple. Nebraska is comparable to those defenses so I’m optimistic that Rutgers will be able to run the ball.

On the other side of the ball, Rutgers has a pretty game run defense. They held Boston College, Wagner & Temple all under 50 rush yards and 1.7 yards/carry. I think they will have some success here against Nebraska and force them to pass. Nebraska is pretty good during the air, but in obvious passing down they are susceptible to allowing sacks. They’ve allowed 3 sacks/game including 4 in their last 2 games vs Oklahoma and a bad Indiana team. Rutgers got 4 sacks vs BC & 3 vs Iowa, so I think there is an opportunity here.

I think Rutgers win a close game in this one. I’ll say 24-21.

UNLV @ San Jose State (+3.5) (-110) (Fan Duel)

I won’t spend too much time on this one since the line has moved like crazy. I was shocked that Fan Duel put this line up. It didn’t last long, but I advised my Patreon followers to play it all the way to San Jose State -2.5. The line is sitting around -5.5/-6 as I type this, so even those that got in at -2.5 are looking like they will beat close by around 3 points. I like the Spartans to win this game.

Pretty much everybody in the Mountain West sucks right now (get ready to fade them during bowl season), but San Jose State might be the best team in the conference. Their pass defense has been really strong vs Auburn, Western Michigan & Wyoming and the offense has been getting better each week with QB Cordeiro. They put up 456 yards of total offense and 314 passing yards last week in Laramie against a Wyoming defense that is usually pretty stingy at home. Now they get to return home to play a UNLV team that has been playing well, but I think their record is a little better than they’ve actually played. They we’re actually outgained by 100 yards in their win vs Utah State but benefited from some crazy TO luck ending up +6 in TO. Last week they fell behind by double digits to a bottom tier New Mexico team before eventually rallying in that one.

I think that San Jose State wins this one. If you missed out on the line, I’d recommended trying to find something to parlay the SJSU moneyline or -2.5 alt line with.

1H Michigan (-13) (-118) @ Indiana (Fan Duel)

Let’s keep riding our fade Indiana train for another week: Illinois $, Western Kentucky $, Cincinnati $ & Nebraska TT Over $.

I’m going with first half rather than full game because Michigan has Penn State & Michigan State on deck, so I think they will want to get in there and put IU away early before coasting in the 2H to get ready for those games. With the way Indiana likes to throw the ball around I worry about a full-game back door cover.

Over the last 3 weeks (WKU, Cincinnati, Nebraska) Indiana is allowing 25.3 first half points per game. This Michigan team is better than all 3 of those teams, and I believe will be motivated to put this one away early. IU has given up 216 on the ground to both Illinois & WKU and now go up a Michigan team with an even stronger running attack (222 rush yds/game, 5.6 ypc).

On the other side IU won’t be able to run the ball at all. They haven’t been successful all season at running the football and they’re not going to be able to start against a Michigan defense that is holding teams under 3.0 ypc this season. They’re going to abandon the run pretty quickly and go to the air. In the last 3 weeks they’ve given up 11 total sacks & have thrown 3 INTs as well. I think the Michigan D will be able to generate a lot of havoc plays and create some short fields for their offense. I’ll predict a 21-3 Michigan lead at the half.

Georgia Southern @ Georgia State (-2.5) (Caesars)

I think this is a good buy low spot on Georgia State being under a FG here at home. Georgia State was a team that I had power rated much higher to begin the season, and despite the 1-4 record they haven’t played as bad as their record would indicate. They started 0-4 but have played a pretty tough schedule, opening with losses to South Carolina & North Carolina. They then lost by 1 to Charlotte (that’s one they’d like to have back) and lost to a strong Coastal Carolina team. They rallied last week to beat Army outright as a 7+ point dog. I backed Army last week but was impressed with what Georgia State was able to do.

I really like Georgia State’s ability to run the ball here. They are coming off a 299 rushing yard performance against Army and also ran for 200+ against South Carolina, North Carolina & Charlotte. Georgia Southern’s run defense is really weak (bottom 10 Nationally), averaging 200+ rushing yards allowed per game and 5.5 yards/carry. I like State to be able to control the line of scrimmage and move the ball consistently.

On the other side of the ball, Southern’s offense has been a lot better than I expected. However, an interesting stat is that QB Kyle Van Treese leads all Group of 5 QBs in Turnover-worthy plays according to PFF. In a game where both offenses figure to have success moving the ball, that looks like a huge factor to me.

I like Georgia State to win this one by more than one score. I’ll say Georgia State 40-30 in a good ol’ fashion Fun Belt game.

Akron/Ohio Over 59.5 (Fan Duel)

Ohio is a double digit favorite in this game but they have one of the worst defenses in the country. In their last two games they have given up 52 points & 640 yards to FCS Fordham and then last week they gave up an incredible 736 yards to Kent State. They aren’t good against the run or the pass. They just give up lots of points & yards.

Even lowly Akron should be able to put up points. Joe Moorehead is a good offense coach and I think their offense is improving as the season goes on. They put up 28 points on 408 yards last week against Bowling Green. I think they should be able to put up similar numbers if not better against this Ohio defense. They’ve got a pretty solid dual threat QB in DJ Irons who ran for over 100 yards last week and threw for 224 and 3 TD. I think the Ohio defense should struggle with him.

On the other side of the ball, Ohio has one of the better QBs in the conference in Kurtis Rourke. Ohio has put up 450+ yards in all 3 games against non-Power 5 opponents, including a 41 point effort vs FAU & 59 points vs Fordham. I think they should be able to move the ball consistently against this Akron defense and will need to keep scoring because no game is over with their defense. This feels like a 38-28 type game to me.

Tulsa (-6) (-110) @ Navy (Draft Kings)

The line is getting steamed against us as I type this on Monday morning. I’m seeing -4.5 & -4 available right now. I’m guessing this is probably related to QB Davis Brin. He’s clearly banged up but did play last week against Cincinnati. I made this bet expecting him to play against Navy, hopefully that is still the case. As long as he does go, I still like this at -6.

I’ve been pretty impressed with Tulsa’s passing attack. I think that’s where the big advantage is in this game. They threw for 260 @ Wyoming, 322 vs NIU & 457 vs Jacksonville State. They even put up a really strong effort vs Ole Miss scoring 27 points, but lost Brin in that one. Navy has only faced one comparable offense to Tulsa this season, Memphis. In that game Memphis scored 37 points and threw for 415 in an easy victory. I think that’s the blueprint here.

On the other side of the ball, Navy runs the triple option but has struggled getting the running game going. They have only topped 3.2 yards/carry one time in a game this season. Tulsa hasn’t been great all season against the run, but when you throw out the games against Ole Miss & Cincinnati (teams that are on a much higher level than Navy) the numbers looks much better.

I like Tulsa to be able to put up numbers in this one and walk away with a 2 score win. I’ll go with 27-17.

Ole Miss (-18) (-110) @ Vanderbilt (Draft Kings)

This is a different Ole Miss team then we are used to. Instead of being an air raid team putting up huge passing numbers, they have been winning with a really good running game and solid defense. They have run for 186+ yards in every game and have topped 233 rushing yards in 4 of their 5 games. Now they are going up against a Vanderbilt defense that gave up 152 rushing yards to FCS Elon, 151 to Wake Forest, 151 to MAC NIU & 228 in their lone SEC game to Alabama. I expect Ole Miss to be able to run in down their throats in this one.

I think Vandy will struggle to generate much offense against this Ole Miss defense and the Ole Miss running game will really wear down the Vandy defense. I’ll go with Ole Miss 38-14.

1H Army @ Wake Forest TT Over 20.5 (-125) (Draft Kings)

Army just isn’t going to be able to cover Wake’s receivers at all. Wake Forest has one of the best passing attacks in the country and the Army defense is bad, particularly in pass coverage. They’ve only faced one above average passing team this year, UTSA, and gave up 41 points & 359 passing yards to them.

When these teams played last year Wake scored 70 points, averaged 12.3 yards per play & scored TD on 10 of their 11 drives. They literally scored a Touchdown on over 90% of their drives. Wake’s offense is just as good as it was last year and Army’s defense doesn’t look any better. You worry a little bit about Army’s pace limiting possessions, but with as explosive as Wake is I’m still comfortable making the bet. If they get 5 first half possessions, I love their chances to score 3 TD.

I’m going with the first half rather than full game, just to protect against the possibility of a Wake blow out and taking the air out of the ball in the second half. Wake has gone over 20.5 in the first half in 12 of 18 games since 2021.

Official Plays – Week 6

Nebraska @ Rutgers (+4.5) (-115) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units

UNLV @ San Jose State (+3.5) (-110) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

1H Michigan (-13) (-118) @ Indiana (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.54 Units to win 3.00 Units

Georgia Southern @ Georgia State (-2.5) (-110) (Caesars)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Akron/Ohio Over 59.5 (-110) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Tulsa (-6) (-110) @ Navy (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Ole Miss (-18) (-110) @ Vanderbilt (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

1H Army @ Wake Forest TT Over 20.5 (-125) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.75 Units to win 3.00 Units

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