Official Plays – Week 7

Rather than creating a new post for each futures bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets and subscribe to my Patreon to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.

Last Week Recap

Last Week: 7-3, +10.86 Units
YTD: 29-20, +24.09 Units

Last Week

That’s more like it! After our first big negative week, we bounced back in a big way last week getting all those units back. The 2-wins on Friday night we’re clear right side winners (although Rutgers made it a little closer than they should have). We followed up the 2-0 Friday with a 5-3 Saturday. Honestly there really weren’t any bad beats or super lucky winners. Ole Miss looked like we we’re going to lose on a brutal backdoor, but Lane scored rather than taking a knee to give us the cover. Maybe that one was a little lucky but that was going to be a gross loss so we’ll call it a wash =)

Just like last year, with each passing week I’m starting to feel like I have a better feel for all these teams. September can be weird but once we cross over into October we start to have enough data points to draw more accurate conclusions. Last year starting in Week 7 I rattled off 9 straight winning weeks to close out the regular season. That will be tough to repeat but hopefully we see similar results this year!

Quick Housekeeping Items

Patreon

MikeyLoBets is on Patreon. Patreon subscribers will get early access to my NCAA Football plays and writeups this year as well as my NFL Pass Attempt model projections & plays. In addition to that, I plan on having 1-2 patreon only live streams a month where we flash bet a college football game (only available on Draft Kings in certain states). I made a ton of money on that last year.

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MikeyLoBets is now on Instagram too! I’m going to try to get some more stuff up there during the season. Please follow @MikeyLoBets!

Okay, that’s enough of all that. Let’s get to the writeups!

Week 7 Official Play Write-Ups

I’m keeping the writeups a little shorter this year in the interest of my time and also because by the time I’m able to get to the writeups a lot of the lines have moved a lot any way.

Patreon Post

Navy TT Over 21.5 (-106) @ SMU (Fan Duel)

Very unlikely this one lands on 22, so don’t really sweat 21.5 vs 22.5. Just make sure you get it under 23.

This game has 2nd highest explosive rating of the week – a tool I created to help measure the big play potential in games. Believe it or not, the biggest reason is that Navy’s offense is pretty explosive while SMU’s defense is terrible at preventing big plays. Navy ranks 17th in offensive explosiveness while SMU’s defense ranks 129th in preventing explosive plays (2nd to last). Obviously Navy primarily runs the ball, but even the explosive run splits favor Navy’s offense by a wide margin (Navy offense is 36th in explosive runs vs. SMU defense in 85th in preventing explosive runs). There is a lot of potential here for Navy to pop some long runs, and definitely potential for Navy to surprise SMU’s defense with a big pass over the top.

Just like last season, Navy started out really slow but has looked a lot better after their bye. They are coming off a game where they just abused Tulsa for 53 points & close to 500 yards (what kind of moron would have bet on Tulsa, amirite?). SMU’s defense has been bad, allowing 34+ points & 439+ yards in their last three games. They’ve been really bad at defending the run as well allowing 4+ yards per carry against every non-FCS opponent they’ve faced.

Their defensive coordinator, Scott Symons, hasn’t seen much triple options – which I believe is a big advantage to Navy. He spent the last 3 seasons at Liberty and only faced a service academy one time, allowing 31 points to Army in 2021. DC’s that don’t have much experience with the triple option often struggle.

SMU is 2nd in the nation in pace, running 3.07 plays/minute. This is really helpful for us as having them play fast should lead to an extra possession or two for Navy.

This last stat probably means nothing, but it looks good for our bet so why not throw it in the writeup: Navy has gone over this number in their last 12 games vs SMU. This includes averaging 36.7 ppg in their last 3 games vs SMU. That last stat might matter a little bit because SMU played a similar air raid offense in those years, so it lends credence to my point about getting extra possessions.

Minnesota (-3) (-110) @ Illinois (Caesars)

If both teams are at full strength I think this is a really even matchup. The thing is though that both teams are not at full strength. Illinois is on the last leg of a really tough 3-game stretch in which they had to play Wisconsin & Iowa (both pretty physical teams). Now they have to turn around and face a Minnesota team with one of the strongest defenses in the Nation according to EPA/play. They will likely have to do it without starting QB Tommy DeVito who left the Iowa game with an injury. Backup QB Art Sitkowski struggled against Iowa throwing a red zone INT and almost fumbling the game away (he ended up being down just before the ball popped out). I think he is a significant downgrade from DeVito.

Minnesota, on the other hand, should be rested coming off a bye. They’ve had 2 weeks to prepare for this matchup and they are getting their stud RB Mo Ibrahim back. They have a bad taste in their mouth after dropping a game to Purdue before the bye. Situationally I think this is a great spot for Minnesota and I think they win this one by a TD+. I’ll say Minnesota 23, Illinois 10.

Kent State/Toledo Over 62 (-110) (Caesars)

Both teams play at a pretty fast pace, ranking in the top 35 in plays/minute. Both QBs currently rank in the Top 20 among qualifiers in Average Distance of Throw (ADOT), with Schlee at 11.9 & Finn at 10.3, meaning both of them take a good amount of deep shots.

Toledo’s offense is rolling scoring 52 points against NIU last week & 38 points against CMU the week before. Kent State is an over team that has had a little bit of bad luck so far this year. They only scored 31 against Ohio despite gaining over 700 yards. Last week they started a little slow against Miami before getting rolling late. After playing a brutal non-conference schedule I feel like their offense is ready to go off soon and put up numbers similar to last year. I like this one to go over and finish something like Toledo 41 Kent State 30

Arkansas @ BYU (-2.5) (-110) (Fan Duel)

Arkansas is pretty beat up right now. They’ve faced a brutal schedule so far this season. In the past 3 weeks alone they’ve had to play Texas A&M, Alabama & @ Mississippi State. Now they have to fly to Utah and play a non-conference game at altitude against a physical BYU team in front of a passionate home crowd. I hate this spot for Arkansas.

They’re defense is pretty beat up and BYU recently got their playmakers back from injury with Romney & Pooka. I think the Cougars are going to score 30+ pretty easily against Arkansas. The Razorbacks got picked about last week against Mississippi State allowing 40 points & over 550 yards. I do think it’s more likely than not that Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson returns for this game, but I still like the Cougars here. I’ll say 37-30 BYU.

NC State/Syracuse Under 44.5 (-115) (Fan Duel)

The numbers already favor the under here, even before we get into the NC State QB situation. Both teams play at a slow pace: Syracuse is 111st in pace & NC State is 76th in pace. Both teams are run heavy. And both offenses are not explosive: NC State’s offense ranks 93rd in explosiveness, while Syracuse’s offense ranks just 105th in explosiveness. The Syracuse offense really hasn’t faced a good defense yet this season, with the best defense they’ve faced being Purdue who held them to 10 points in the first 3 quarters before that game got drunk late. The NC State defense is a huge step up in competition for this Syracuse offense.

The NC State offense lost their starting QB Devin Leary to injury last week against Florida State. Backup Jack Chambers came in with 5 minutes left in the 3rd quarter and they didn’t trust him to throw at all. He literally only threw one pass as they ran the ball every play. Leary is likely out again this week, which means with Chambers they will play at an even slower pace and be even more run heavy (and likely less explosive). This game figures to be one where both coaches are conservative and both offenses struggle. I think it will end up being a 23-14 type game.

Temple @ UCF (-2400)
Clemson (-3) (-125) @ Florida State (Draft Kings)

The UCF leg is just to get the juice under -120. It’s -2400 so I won’t spend much time on that one. UCF has been playing good football lately and QB Plumlee just played his best game of the season vs. SMU. Temple is really bad. Week night game at home for a big favorite, it’s very unlikely UCF drops this one.

I’m okay with playing Clemson at -3.5, but decided I preferred adding the parlay leg to be able to get it down to the key number of -3. Florida State is really beat up with now and has had a hard time with pass protection. Clemson has a really strong defensive line and it will probably be getting Bryan Breese back for this one.

Clemson’s offense has actually been playing pretty solid. In the past 4 weeks they’ve put up 48 vs La Tech, 51 vs Wake Forest, 30 vs NC State & 31 vs Boston College (in a blowout). QB DJ Uiagalelei is quietly putting together a really nice season with 14 TD vs 2 INT and is near the top of the PFF leaderboard for Big Time Throws.

I like Clemson to win this one by 7+.

San Jose State (-3.5) (-115) @ Fresno State (Fan Duel)

What is with Fan Duel undervaluing San Jose State? You thought they would have learned last week when the public moved their opening line by like 10 points, but once again this week they undervalued the Spartans with their opening line. I won’t spend too much time on this one since the line has already moved 4+ points and crossed several key numbers. San Jose State is playing like the best team in the Mountain West. They just crushed UNLV and QB Cordeiro is playing like the conference player of the year. The defense is playing at an elite level, holding opponents under 254 yards for 3 consecutive weeks. Now they get to go against a Fresno State team that is reeling. They will be without QB Jake Haener again this week. They we’re only able to muster up 14 points against lowly UConn without him two weeks ago and then lost by 20 to Boise last week. SJSU seems to be clicking on all cylinders right now and I think they keep rolling in this one.

Official Plays – Week 7

Navy TT Over 21.5 (-106) @ SMU (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.18 Units to win 3.00 Units

Minnesota (-3) (-110) @ Illinois (Caesars)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Kent State/Toledo Over 62 (-110) (Caesars)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Arkansas @ BYU (-2.5) (-110) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

NC State/Syracuse Under 44.5 (-115) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units

2-Line Parlay (-115) (Draft Kings)
Temple @ UCF (-2400)
Clemson (-3) (-125) @ Florida State
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units

San Jose State (-3.5) (-115) @ Fresno State (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units

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