Rather than creating a new post for each futures bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets and subscribe to my Patreon to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.
Last Week Recap
Last Week: 4-3, +2.05 Units
YTD: 34-24, +28.54 Units
We’ve now been positive in 6 of the last 7 weeks in NCAA Football. This wasn’t my best week, but any time you’re making money you’re happy with it.
This was a pretty clear cut week; the wins we’re pretty clear wins & the losses we’re pretty clear losses. Kent State/Toledo over almost cashed in the first half, Navy made us sweat a little bit but ended up going over by plenty, Clemson/UCF parlay hit easily & NC/Syracuse under was never really a sweat. On the other side BYU couldn’t stop Arkansas to save their life & San Jose State didn’t really show up against Fresno. I was very surprised to see Tommy Devito start at QB for Illinois (and he didn’t look hurt at all). I wouldn’t have bet Minnesota had I known he was going to play, but that’s gambling for you.
Let’s keep rolling into Week 8!
Quick Housekeeping Items
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MikeyLoBets is on Patreon. Patreon subscribers will get early access to my NCAA Football plays and writeups this year as well as my NFL Pass Attempt model projections & plays. In addition to that, I plan on having 1-2 patreon only live streams a month where we flash bet a college football game (only available on Draft Kings in certain states). I made a ton of money on that last year.
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Okay, that’s enough of all that. Let’s get to the writeups!
Week 8 Official Play Write-Ups
I’m keeping the writeups a little shorter this year in the interest of my time and also because by the time I’m able to get to the writeups a lot of the lines have moved a lot any way.
Troy (+3) (-110) @ South Alabama (Draft Kings)
We’ve got a great Thursday night Sun Belt game! These looks like two of the best teams in the conference.
Troy has rattled off 4 straight Sun Belt wins after opening up conference play with a loss at App State on a Hail Mary. Their defense has been really impressive holding Marshall to 174 yards, Southern Miss to 205 yards & Texas State to 293 yards. They are probably the best unit in this game if you we’re to rank both teams offenses & defenses.
On the other side of the ball, their offense isn’t great but they do have a little bit of an advantage when it comes to explosive plays. They are currently 35th in the country in generating big plays, while South Alabama is only 89th in the country at preventing them.
I like getting a FG here with a team with a strong defense. I think the offense will do enough to leave this one with an outright win, but I’ll take the 3 to be safe.
Tulsa @ Temple TT Over 19.5 (-125) (Draft Kings)
If you’re anything like me you spent last Thursday night watching the Temple vs UCF game. Oh, just me? Well Temple’s QB EJ Warner (Kurt Warner’s son) actually looked pretty good in this game, leading the Owls on 3 first half scoring drives in this game. He is only a Freshmen and I think he’s starting to figure it out a little bit. This will be the worst defense they’ve faced, since the UMass game where they scored 28 points & Warner threw for 2 TD. In their most recent game they gave up a whopping 53 points to Navy, but have had plenty of other duds this season allowing 40 to Wyoming, 35 to Northern Illinois, 35 to Ole Miss, & 31 to Cincinnati. I definitely think Temple can get to 20 here at home against this Tulsa defense.
Indiana @ Rutgers (pk) (-110) (Caesars)
I know most people are grossed out by the thought of betting on Rutgers; but I like this spot for them. They cashed for us in their most recent game when they hosted Nebraska and now they are coming off a bye and have another winnable home game.
I’ve been fading Indiana all season and see this as another good opportunity to go against the Hoosiers. Their offense has really been struggling having gone for less than 351 yards and 3 ypc in their last 4 games. This includes going against Nebraska & Maryland who have pretty weak defenses. The Rutgers defense has actually been really solid. If you take out the Ohio State game they are holding opponents to 16.7 ppg & only 260.4 ypg (and that was with them giving up some points to the Iowa defense). They held Nebraska to 14 points in their most recent game & Nebraska has a better offense than Indiana in my opinion.
On offense, all 3 of their QBs “are ready” per Schiano for the first time all season. This is probably his last chance to win a Big Ten game at home this season and coming off a bye I expect them to play one of their better games of the season. Give me the Scarlett Knights to pull off an ugly win. I’ll call it 24-14.
Houston (-2.5) (-110) @ Illinois (Caesars)
Houston has been a frustrating team to bet on this season as they’ve underperformed up until this point, but they are coming off a thrilling last second comeback against Memphis that saved our FD parlay and may have saved their season. Now they are coming off a bye and should be rested and hopefully ready to build off the momentum of that big win.
The Navy defense has been struggling some lately, allowing 490 yards to Tulsa & last week they allowed 510 yards & 40 points to SMU. SMU got a ton of explosive plays and Navy had no shot at covering SMU’s talented receivers. I think Houston can follow this script. They have a strong QB in Clayton Tune & WR Nathaniel Dell is one of the better ones in the conference. Houston is averaging 31 ppg and I Like their chances at generating explosive plays against this Navy defense as Navy is 130th in the Nation in allowing explosive plays.
Navy runs the triple option on offense and Houston’s run defense has actually performed well in every game this season except the Kansas game. Last year Houston beat Navy 28-20 & in 2020 they beat them 37-21. I usually don’t put a whole lot of stock into prior year games, but I care a little more against triple option teams because I want to make sure the current coaching staff’s can handle a unique offense like that. It seems like Houston has been solid against it in the past and I look for that to continue on Saturday.
Cincinnati/SMU Over 60 (-110) (Draft Kings)
I’m surprised to see this number trending down. I thought about playing it a 62.5, but with 61 and 62 both being somewhat key numbers for totals I decided to wait and see if we could do better. When I saw the under steam on Tuesday morning I jumped on the over 60.
This game has my 2nd highest Explosive Score this weekend as both offenses have been much more explosive this year than the opposing defenses have been at preventing explosive plays. Last week we saw it both ways with SMU as their defense gave up a large amount of explosive plays to Navy of all times, while their offense got tons of chunk plays.
The SMU offense ranks #4 in the Nation in explosive plays. They seem to be starting to hit their stride as an offense. They put up 40 points against Navy & also had 34 against TCU 3 weeks ago. Being at home, I expect them to be able to put up points against the Cincinnati defense.
On the other side, SMU’s defense is concerning. In the last 4 weeks they’ve allowed: 34 to Navy, 41 to UCF, 42 to TCU & 34 to Maryland. In all 4 of those games they’ve allowed at least 439 yards. Cincinnati is averaging 38 ppg and shouldn’t get much resistance from this SMU defense.
SMU plays at the 2nd fastest pace by plays/minute in the Nation while Cincinnati comes in at #52 (keep in mind, they’ve had some big leads which may have slowed them down). I expect a shootout to break out in this one and we end up with a comfortable win. Cincinnati won this game 48-14 last year. I think the Bearcats offense will be strong again this year, but their defense will allow a few more scores. I’ll say 41-28.
Northern Illinois/Ohio Over 65 (-110) (Draft Kings)
I wrote about how bad Ohio’s defense has been when we took the over in the Akron/Ohio game and then they went and allowed 34 points & 478 yards to the Zips. They are really bad and now are going against a pretty strong NIU team. The Huskies are averaging 33 ppg and have done that without starting QB Rocky Lombardi for most of the season. He’s back now and they should be able to score pretty easily against Ohio.
On the flip side, the NIU defense has definitely struggled a lot at times this year. Allowing 52 points to Toledo, 44 to Ball State, 38 to Vanderbilt & 38 to Tulsa. Ohio has a strong offense with a really good QB in Kurtis Rourke. Both defenses ranks in the bottom 30 in terms of allowing explosive plays. Both teams are a little slower pace (ranking in the 80’s), which might be why some people are betting under here, but I think there will be more than enough big plays to push this one over. I like both teams to surpass 35 points in this one as we see a final score in the 70’s.
Eastern Michigan/Ball St Under 57 (-110) (Caesars)
Surprised this one is being bet up. I thought I got a really good line at 57 but now I could have gotten under 59.5. I guess some people disagree with me on this one. It’s disappointing, but it happens from time to time. I wouldn’t rip up the ticket just yet….
This game is tied for my lowest explosion score of the week. Neither offense has generated many big plays at all with EMU ranking 111th in the nation & Ball State ranking 116th. Both defenses have been pretty good about not allowing explosive plays as well. I think the over bettors here are just blindly betting pace as Ball State has played at the 10th fastest pace and EMU is around 61. But pace doesn’t automatically mean over…. If it did we’d all be rich. You still need big plays and neither offense is doing that right now.
EMU’s offense has been really bad lately. Last week they only scored 10 points on 226 yards against an NIU that had been giving up high point totals to several other teams. Prior to that they put up only 299 yards to bad a Western Michigan team & scored only 20 against a bad UMass team. Not impressive at all. Their defense hasn’t been terrible either, allowing only 255 yards in the UMass game & 299 in the WMU game.
Ball State’s offense has been bad lately as well. They scored only 17 on 250 yards two weeks ago against Central Michigan & last week only 25 points on 356 yards against a bad UConn team. I don’t know what the case is for an over bet here besides pace? But pace without production means nothing. Yes, I wish I got under 59.5 instead, but I still feel good about my under 57. Maybe I’m missing something but I see this one landing in the high 40’s or low 50’s.
Northwestern/Maryland Under 52.5 (-115) (Draft Kings)
This game has the 4th lowest explosive ranking this week (and this was before the injury to Maryland QB Taulia Tagovalia which will likely keep him out of this game). Both defenses are top 30 in the Nation in preventing big plays. Northwestern’s offense is terrible and the only thing I worry about is some turnovers giving Maryland short fields. Without that, the NU defense will likely play a bend but don’t break defense that allows for short gains and offenses to slowly move down the field. With a likely backup QB I think Maryland will be a little more conservative with their play calling which will aid the under. I think they just want to get out of there with a win. They won’t be going for style points in this one if Taulia is out. I think this one ends around 31-13 Maryland.
Boise State/Air Force Under 49 (-110) (Caesars)
Boise State is 99th out of 131 in offensive pace; Air Force is 131st out of 131 in offensive pace. Both teams run the ball a lot. Both defenses prevent long runs. This game has my 5th lowest explosive ranking as both offenses are near the bottom at generating big plays this year. I think this easily turns into an old school, run the ball/run the clock type football game. I don’t think either coach will take many big chances.
Boise State will be one of the best run defenses that Air Force has seen this year; averaging fewer than 3 ypc allowed this season. I think they will do a pretty good of limiting the triple option. I see Boise grinding out a 24-14 type win here.
Official Plays – Week 8
Troy (+3) (-110) @ South Alabama (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Tulsa @ Temple TT Over 19.5 (-125) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.75 Units to win 3.00 Units
Indiana @ Rutgers (pk) (-110) (Caesars)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Houston (-2.5) (-110) @ Navy (Caesars)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Cincinnati/SMU Over 60 (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Northern Illinois/Ohio Over 65 (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Eastern Michigan/Ball St Under 57 (-110) (Caesars)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Northwestern/Maryland Under 52.5 (-115) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units
Boise State/Air Force Under 49 (-110) (Caesars)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
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