Rather than creating a new post for each futures bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets and subscribe to my Patreon to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.
Last Week Recap
Last Week: 6-4, +4.20 Units
YTD: 40-28, +32.74 Units
It may not have been the flashiest week of all-time, but I’d be thrilled with 60% and +4 units every week. We continue to churn out positive weeks as 7 of the last 8 have been positive. Some greater than others, but that’s the name of the game. Long term, consistent success.
I feel like the 6 winners we’re all right side winners. We overcame a Kick return to TD to open the Rutgers-Indiana game and still covered that one pretty easily. Troy won outright. Houston won comfortably. The under in EMU/Ball State & Air Force/Boise State both cashed pretty comfortably.
Some of the losses we’re a little closer. We got 10 points in the first 5 minutes of the Temple game, but then they really struggled. Honestly that would have been a lucky winner as the offense was pretty putrid throughout. The NIU over never really had a chance once it was announced that QB Rocky Lombardi was out. That sucked considering he had played the week before. Cincinnati/SMU over was one 2-point conversion away from cashing but that would have been a pretty lucky winner for us. The NU/Maryland under is the one that I felt like we probably should have had. It got a little wild late as both defenses fell apart.
Like I said though, I’ll take 60% any time!
Let’s keep rolling into Week 9!
Quick Housekeeping Items
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Okay, that’s enough of all that. Let’s get to the writeups!
Week 9 Official Play Write-Ups
I’m keeping the writeups a little shorter this year in the interest of my time and also because by the time I’m able to get to the writeups a lot of the lines have moved a lot any way.
Louisiana (-115) @ Southern Mississippi (Draft Kings)
Louisiana seems to have turned a corner the last few weeks after switching to Ben Wooldridge as starting QB. They beat Marshall on the road 23-13 as a TD+ underdog and then last week beat Arkansas State by 20 points in a game in which they outgained them by 251 yards. I think the Cajuns are hitting their stride right now and playing their best football. Their defense has been solid all season, but have played really well the last couple weeks holding Marshall to 276 yards & Arkansas State to 271 yards.
The Southern Miss offense has really struggled this year. If you take out their 64 points/587 yards performance against a brutal FCS team they are averaging only 290.5 yards per game. I think they are going to struggle to generate much offense at all against this Cajun defense. I think Louisiana will hold them to a max 17 points and the Cajun offense should be able to top that. I’ll go with a 21-13 final score prediction.
Notre Dame/ Syracuse Under 46 (-110) (Draft Kings)
We have two pretty strong defenses taking the field in this game. When betting an under, the two most important statistical factors for me are explosive plays and pts/Eckel defense. This game passes both of those tests.
Regarding explosive plays, the Notre Dame offense ranks 128th in the Nation in explosive plays while the Syracuse defense is 4th in the Nation in preventing explosive plays. This bodes really well for an under bet. The ND offense does actually have an advantage in success rate, ranking 24th compared to the Syracuse defense ranking 64th. This is actually okay for us. When you’re betting an under, you’re okay with a team moving the ball as long as it takes them several plays to do it and then ideally the drive stalls once they cross the 40. That looks like the case here as ND as a success rate advantage, but a drastic disadvantage with explosive plays.
Pts/Eckel is a stat that Parker Fleming uses to measure how successful a team is at finishing drives. An “Eckel” is a drive that either results in a TD or a 1st & 10 within the opponents 40 yard line. I like it better than red zone stats because really scoring opportunities kick in before the 20 yard line. I don’t have the most up to date stats, but coming into last week Notre Dame’s offense ranked just 127th in pts/eckel with 2.62. Compare that to the Syracuse defense that ranked 12th in the Nation at 2.92 pts/eckel.
All these stats point toward Notre Dame being able to move the ball a little bit, but not having big plays and having drives stall once they cross the 40. That’s perfect for an under bet.
On the other side of the ball, the advantage is not quite as drastic but still apparent. The Syracuse offense is just 103rd in the Nation in explosive plays compared to the Notre Dame defense ranking 77th in preventing them. Once again the offense does have a slight advantage in success rate with Syracuse offense ranking 11th in success rate compared to the Notre Dame defense ranking 38th. Once again, we’re okay with the offense moving the ball as long as they have to work pretty hard to do it.
Regarding Pts/Eckel, the Syracuse offense has actually been really good ranking 11th in the country with 5.28 pts/Eckel. But the Notre Dame defense has actually been better, ranking 6th in the Nation allowing on 2.43. When you consider the fact that this defense has faced offenses like Ohio State, UNC & BYU that is really impressive.
I think both defense will prevent big plays in this game and tighten up once offenses cross the 40 yard line. I expect the offense to have to work for their points and end up settling for field goals on enough occasions for this game to go under. I’ll call it a 24-17 final score.
Rutgers (+14.5) (-110) @ Minnesota (Caesars)
By my count I’m now 3-0 betting on Rutgers games, after fading them against Iowa & riding them against Nebraska and Indiana. Hopefully we continue to have a good feel for this team moving forward.
The computer models fell in love with Minnesota after they started the year with 4 straight blowouts, but recent games have revealed to us that they were a pretty fraudulent team that took advantage of a very easy schedule to open the season. The last three games have been pretty brutal for Minnesota with a home loss to Purdue and back-to-back very convincing road losses to Illinois & Penn State. The defense looked great early in the year against those bad teams, but it’s been sinking fast lately allowing 472 yards to Illinois & 479 yards to Penn State the last few weeks. Their offense hasn’t been much better lately. They have a very talented RB in Mo Ibrahim, but the passing game has been brutal the last few weeks.
Rutgers defense is sneaky good. In their last two games they’ve allowed just 10 defensive points to Indiana & 14 to Nebraska. Their run defense has been very strong in every game except the Ohio State game, and they should be able to keep Ibrahim from completely killing them. On offense they got their QB back last week and got a week under their belt with their new offensive coordinator. I think they have enough to keep this game close. I’ll say 23-14.
Wake Forest (-3) (-125) @ Louisville (Caesars)
Stylistically I think this Wake Forest offense is going to give Louisville all sorts of problems. They’ve been pretty lucky thus far to have not had to play any really good passing QBs. When they’ve had to play solid passing QB’s they’ve struggled. They only had to deal with Jordan Travis for a half in the Florida State game and ended up giving up 455 total yards in that game. They next best QB they’ve faced (from a pure passing perspective) is Boston College’s Phil Jurkovec and they gave up 34 points on 454 total yards (304 through the air) in that game. BC’s top WR Zay Flowers went nuts against them with 5 catches for 151 yards.
Wake Forest is a big step up from Boston College and I think Sam Hartman and the Demon Deacon pass catchers (led by AT Perry) are going to be a huge problem for them. The Louisville offense should be able to get some points, but I think stops are going to be super hard to come by for them and Wake walks away from Louisville with a shootout victory. I’ll say 37-27.
Michigan State (+22) (-110) @ Michigan (Caesars)
This just feels like way too many points in this rivalry game. I don’t typically like to look back at past years much, because each year’s team is different, but it’s worth mentioning that MSU +22 would have covered in 18 of the last 19 times these teams have played. That just speaks to how tough this rivalry is.
It’s obviously been a disappointing year for Michigan State, but they played their best game of the season in their most recent game with a win over Wisconsin. Coming off a bye, they should be as healthy as they’ve been all season. The passing game got it going a little bit against Wisconsin with Thorne playing his best game of the year (21-for-29, 265 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT) and Jayden Reed going for 9 receptions and 117 yards.
Michigan is a really strong team, but 3 of their 4 Big Ten opponents have kept it within 22 points (Maryland, Iowa & Indiana). I think there is a little bit of recency bias with how good they played against Penn State. I would have this spread around 17, so I have to pull the trigger on +22. This game is MSU’s Super Bowl & Michigan will get their best punch. I think the Spartans keep it close enough for us. I’ll say 34-20.
Official Plays – Week 9
Louisiana (-115) @ Southern Miss (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units
Notre Dame/Syracuse Under 46 (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Rutgers (+14.5) (-110) @ Minnesota (Caesars)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Wake Forest (-3) (-125) @ Louisville (Caesars)
Risking 3.75 Units to win 3.00 Units
Michigan State (+22) (-110) @ Michigan (Caesars)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
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