Rather than creating a new post for each futures bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets and subscribe to my Patreon to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.

Last Week Recap

Last Week: 1-5, -13.20 Units
YTD: 42-33, +22.54 Units

Gross week. Nothing you can say. Sometimes crappy days happen. I’d love to be able to blame it on bad luck, but really with the exception of the ECU game all the losses we’re deserved. Just bad reads. I just never felt great about that slate last week. Even on Sunday, I only put one bet in instead of my usual amount. It is what it is. We’re still up over 20+ units on the season, with a month left to play. I’m feeling much better about this week’s card, so let’s flush it and move on.

On to Week 10…

Week 10 Official Play Write-Ups

I’m keeping the writeups a little shorter this year in the interest of my time and also because by the time I’m able to get to the writeups a lot of the lines have moved a lot any way.

Appalachian State (-3) (-110) @ Coastal Carolina (Draft Kings)

I do think Coastal has the QB & Head Coach edge, which makes me a little nervous but I think App has the advantage everywhere else. Particularly I think they have an advantage up front. They probably have the best offensive line in the Sun Belt and we’ve seen Coastal really struggle against the run vs. some teams. Most recently they gave up 324 yards rushing and 10.5 ypc to an Old Dominion team two weeks ago that really isn’t that great. App is a huge step up and should be able to control the line of scrimmage. They did shut down Marshall last week, but Marshall’s offense is pretty bad.

Duke (-4.5) (-105) @ Boston College (Fan Duel)

Boston College is a team in shambles right now. They are so beat up that they had to move a defensive linemen to offensive line in their last game… and they lost another OLinemen in that game. To make matters worse they also lost starting QB Phil Jurkovec to injury in that game. I’m unsure of his status for Friday night, but with this team being so bad and with it being a short week I definitely think it’s possible that he doesn’t play. Even with him, I like Duke at this number. Boston College is coming off a 10-point loss to UConn and is competing with Northwestern to be the worst Power 5 team East of the Mississippi. Duke has actually been pretty solid this year. They’re coming off a 24 point win vs Miami and had a bye last week. Normally I give an advantage to the home team in a weekday game, but since Duke has had two weeks to prepare they should be fine. I think Duke wins this one by double digits.

Air Force/Army Under 40.5 (-110) (Fan Duel)

This is pretty much a service academy under auto play for me. Any time I can get a total in the 4’s in a game that features two triple options teams I’m going to jump on it. Since 2005, when two service academies play the Under is 40-9-1.When these two teams played last year, we cashed our under even with the game going to OT. The score was only 14-14 at the end of regulation. It’s just really hard for games to be high scoring when both offenses run the triple option. The clock is always running and the offenses just aren’t designed for quick, explosive plays. They are designed for long drives that wear down the opposing defense over time. But since both these defenses practice against the triple option all the time when they go against their own offense… they are used to defending it. It’s all assignment football. The only thing that can crush an under in a game like this is a bunch of fumbles setting up short fields for the other team. That is a possibility with the triple option. But as long as both teams take care of the football, we should be in good shape here. I’ll predict a 20-13 game.

Ohio State (-31.5) (-108) @ Northwestern (Fan Duel)

I know most of you weren’t able to get this one, so I’ll just be brief. It’s insane how bad Northwestern’s defense has gotten. They just got shredded by Maryland’s backup QB and then let Iowa’s terrible offense score on every first half possession in back to back weeks. Ohio State’s offense should be able to score at will even without trying or if the backups are in. Northwestern’s offense is really bad and should have a hard time getting to double digits. I’ll say 45-7 Ohio State (and that’s with OSU being nice).

Texas State (-1) (-110) @ UL-Monroe (Caesars)

I just have Texas State power rated higher than UL-Monroe. I made this game around Texas State -4.5. Texas State has been a high variance team this year (beat App State, but lost to Nevada). Their coach, Jake Spatival, is coaching for his job and they still have a shot at a Bowl Game (which could save him his job), so he really needs this game. They played Troy & Southern Miss tough in their last two games, but UL-Monroe is much worse than both those teams. They beat UL-Monroe by 8 last year and I’m expecting a similar margin this year.

Clemson (-3) (-125) @ Notre Dame (Caesars)

Notre Dame has found success in recent weeks relying on their power running game. While they good have a strong offensive line, I think they are going to have trouble with this strategy against Clemson. Clemson has one of the best defensive lines in the Nation and are really tough to pound the run against. Also Notre Dame’s offense is not very explosive, which means when they score it is usually the result of drives that take several plays. This is tough to do against a defense the caliber of Clemson’s because it just takes one havoc play to stop the drive. Drew Pyne is not a QB that worries me much, so I think ND is going to have a really hard time scoring. Yes, the game is in South Bend under the lights but I expect Clemson’s crowd to travel pretty well (not quite like when Georgia played in South Bend, but still a nice contingent of Clemson fans) and Notre Dame has really bad reverse home-road splits this year, where they have actually played much worse at home this year.

Official Plays – Week 10

Appalachian State (-3) (-110) @ Coastal Carolina (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Duke (-4.5) (-105) @ Boston College (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.15 Units to win 3.00 Units

Air Force/Army Under 40.5 (-110) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Ohio State (-31.5) (-108) @ Northwestern (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.24 Units to win 3.00 Units

Texas State (-1) (-110) @ UL-Monroe (Caesars)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Clemson (-3) (-125) @ Notre Dame (Caesars)
Risking 3.75 Units to win 3.00 Units