Official Plays – Week 11

Rather than creating a new post for each futures bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets and subscribe to my Patreon to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.

Last Week Recap

Last Week: 3-4, -4.59 Units
YTD: 45-37, +17.96 Units

Last Week

Kind of a frustrating week. It looked like we we’re on our way to a strong week with a 3-1 start, but lost the last 3. We beat the closing line in the Ohio State-Northwestern game by about 7 points but still lost that one by plenty as the game ended up taking place in brutal weather that definitely influenced the outcome. At least I’ll get my CLV trophy in the mail for that one. I’ll put it right next to the one I got for the Texas State-Nevada game in Week 1 =)

The Texas State-ULM game was frustrating too. Texas State jumped out to a big lead scoring TD’s on their first 3 drives, but dumb coaching decisions handed ULM a TD right before the half and then they played for a FG at the end of the game (which the kicker predictably missed). I felt like Texas State was the better team, but their coach let them down. I also felt like OSU was a great bet when I put it in on Sunday, but the weather that moved in changed that. Just got to keep working hard.

On to Week 11…

Week 11 Official Play Write-Ups

I’m keeping the writeups a little shorter this year in the interest of my time and also because by the time I’m able to get to the writeups a lot of the lines have moved a lot any way.

Patreon Pic

New Mexico (+23) (-110) @ Air Force (Draft Kings)

I think this is a letdown spot for Air Force. Despite playing in a conference, the two games that they care most about every season are actually non-conference games: vs Navy & vs Army. They are coming off a very emotional 13-7 physical win over Army and now are a big favorite in this game. I think this a good spot for a letdown. When they beat Navy earlier in the year (in a very similar game, 13-10) they followed that up with an outright loss as a favorite to Utah State. This is a game with a total in the 30’s, so the oddsmakers aren’t expecting much offense and we are getting 23 points. Air Force’s QB Hazziq Daniels has looked pretty beat up since the Boise State game (he left that game for awhile) and may be a little less explosive in this game. New Mexico’s defense has been pretty solid lately holding opponents to 356 yards or less in 4 of their last 5 games. Most recently they held Utah State to only 280 total yards and only 2.8 yards/carry. I think they will be stingy enough to give us this cover. I’ll predict a final score of 24-10.

Stanford @ Utah (-22.5) (-110) (Draft Kings)

I get the impression that Stanford is a team in quit mode. They haven’t scored 17 points in a game since October 8th. In their last two games they’ve lost 38-13 to UCLA and last week 52-14 at home to Washington State. They’ve given up more than 500+ yards in both games and more than 300 rushing yards & 7+ ypc in both games. Now they have to go play a very physical Utah team at altitude that beat them 52-7 last year.

Utah still only has 1 conference loss on the season and is still very alive in the Pac 12 championship race. They got their QB Cam Risking & RB Tavion Thomas back last week in a 45-20 win over Arizona. They rushed for 300 yards in that game. They rushed for 441 yards against Stanford last year & there is no reason why they can’t run all over them again. Utah is a very physical team, has a very strong home field advantage, and is the last team you want to face if you’re already in quit mode. I’ll call this one Utah 38, Stanford 7.

Arizona @ UCLA (-14.5) (-115) (Fan Duel)

This was a weird opening line from Fan Duel. Hopefully this one ends up better than the Ohio State line from last week where we got a great opening number, but still lost.

Arizona’s defense has given up 45 or more points in 4 consecutive games and now has to go up against Chip Kelly & Dorian Thompson Robinson’s explosive UCLA offense. The Bruins just hung 50 at Arizona State last week and are averaging 41 points & 497 yards on the season. I’m hopeful that UCLA should be able to score pretty much at will in this one. Arizona’s offense isn’t bad, but Utah held them to 20 last week, I think UCLA is capable of a similar performance. I worry about a potential backdoor cover, but my numbers had this one more like UCLA -24 so I had to jump on this line. I’ll predict a final score of 45-24.

Official Plays – Week 11

New Mexico (+23) (-110) @ Air Force (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Stanford @ Utah (-22.5) (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Arizona @ UCLA (-14.5) (-115) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units

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