Rather than creating a new post for each futures bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets and subscribe to my Patreon to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.
Last Week Recap
Last Week: 3-3, -1.05 Units
YTD: 48-40, +16.91 Units
Buffalo was one of the worst collapses I’ve seen in a long time…. Well at least since Texas State the week before. Just some brutal coaching in that one. UCLA beat the closing number by 5+ points and lost outright. I went back and tracked by record this season on games where I beat the closing number by 5+ and it’s only 5-5, -0.44 Units. That’s just some really bad luck right there. Any time you beat the closing number by that much it’s a win, we just can’t really catch a break this season. I know some of you won’t want to hear that because “you’re just making excuses bro” but it’s the reality with Sports Gambling & if you do this long enough you’ll come to understand that.
We still have 2 regular season weeks, plus Conference Championships, plus FCS Playoffs & Bowls to get rolling again. I’ve set my new goal for the season at 30+ Units. Last year I was 50+ Units in College Football & 30+ in NBA. This year I’m thinking it might be the opposite since we’re off to such a strong start in NBA. Let’s start with getting a positive week this week in NCAA & get the positive CFB momentum rolling again.
On to Week 12…
Week 12 Official Play Write-Ups
I’m keeping the writeups a little shorter this year in the interest of my time and also because by the time I’m able to get to the writeups a lot of the lines have moved a lot any way.
Illinois/Michigan Under 43.5 (-114) (Fan Duel)
Right now I’m seeing forecasts in the 20’s with winds 15+ mph for Ann Arbor, MI on Saturday. These are two pretty conservative teams to begin with & I think the weather will further influence some conservative play calling. I also like the fact that Michigan has Ohio State on deck, so I think they will just want to get a lead and then run this one out without running it up. I think any tricks they have up their sleeve they will want to save for the Buckeyes next week.
Neither team plays fast. Coming in to play last week I had Illinois 89th in the country in pace & Michigan 124th out of 131 in pace (I have incorporated last week’s data yet, but at this point in the season it won’t change much week-to-week). Both teams run the ball a lot and keep the clock running. They’re in no hurry. With the weather, I think this will be the trend again on Saturday.
Illinois top 2 RBs are questionable for Saturday. Bielema said in his press conference today that they are “trending in the right direction” but still doesn’t know about their status for Saturday. Chase Brown is a heck of a RB, but with a “lower body injury” you wonder if he will be somewhat limited against this nasty Michigan defense, even if he does play.
Both defenses are very effective against the run. While Michigan’s offense is very effective, it lacks the big play potential. Gary Segars tweeted out today they are the offense that has the biggest difference in Success Rate vs Explosive Rate. They have #2 success rate in the country but only the #129 explosive rate. This means that when they score it’s typically long (time consuming) drives, rather than big plays. This is beneficial for an under play. Illinois is also #16 on this list.
I think Michigan will get out to a double digit lead and their defense will suffocate this Illini offense. I think that the Wolverines will coast in the second half with an emphasis on keeping the clock moving and getting on to the Ohio State game. I’ll predict a 27-10 Michigan win.
Kansas State (-7) (-120) @ West Virginia (Draft Kings)
Kansas State is in the driver’s seat to make it to the Big 12 Championship. On the other side, WVA’s Head Coach Neal Brown appears to be a dead man walking with it being pretty likely that he will be fired as soon as the season ends. Kansas State has been playing really good football with Will Howard at QB beating Oklahoma State 48-0 & Baylor 31-3 in Howard’s last two games. West Virginia’s defense has really struggled with a lot of the better offenses they’ve faced this season giving up 38 to Pittsburgh, 55 to Kansas, 38 to Texas, 40 to Baylor, 48 to Texas Tech, & 41 to TCU. I’d expect more of the same with Kansas State coming to town. West Virginia QB JT Daniels was pulled from the game last week and Brown isn’t naming a starter this week. Either way, neither option sounds like a great one for WVA this week. I think the Kansas State offense will be too much for the Mountaineers to keep up with.
Georgia State @ James Madison (-9) (-110) (Caesars)
JMU is probably the best team in the Sun Belt when QB Todd Centeio is healthy. He looked really good last week against ODU in JMU’s 37-3 win. They have put up 32+ points in 7 of the 8 games Centeio has started this year (and the one time they didn’t was his first game back from the injury against Louisville). Georgia State is pretty beat up right now and lost last week to a ULM team that is near the bottom of the conference. Their defense has really struggled against the upper tier offenses that they’ve faced this year and I expect more of the same on Saturday. I like the Dukes to win by double digits at home on Saturday.
Louisiana Tech/Charlotte Over 64.5 (-110) (Draft Kings)
Last year this game was 42-32 & I have it in the 70’s again this year. The reason for the low total is because La Tech will be playing their backup QB, Landry Lyddy. But he’s played a good amount of snaps this year and was the QB in their 42-34 loss to FIU a few weeks ago (so he’s been in a shootout before). He’s going against a Charlotte defense that is just terrible. They have given up 40+ points 7 times this year. They give up a crazy 7.25 yards/play and have allowed 37 plays of 30+ yards this year (while La Tech ranks 16th in the Nation in explosive plays). Both defenses have allowed 37+ ppg in conference play this year and the forecast looks good with no rain. Charlotte’s QB Chris Reynolds is actually pretty good & I think will have a big game on Senior Day as he goes up a defense that is 120th in Yards/Play. I think we will see lots of explosive plays with both teams capable of topping 40 in this one. I’ll say Charlotte wins this one 42-38.
Iowa (+3) (-110) @ Minnesota (Draft Kings)
This is going to be such a dumb, ugly Big Ten football game and I simply can’t wait for it. The total currently sits at 32.5, so it could be a first one to 17 wins type of football game.
Minnesota is a team that has really beefed up their stats against the easy teams on their schedule, crushing New Mexico St, Western Illinois, Colorado, Michigan St, Rutgers & Northwestern but struggling against Purdue, Illinois, Penn State & Nebraska. Iowa has been playing better football lately, winning 3 in a row including 14+ point wins @ Purdue and vs Wisconsin. Their offense still sucks, but has looked a little better lately. Their defense is nasty. They are really strong against the run & historically force a lot of TOs. I think Minnesota will really struggle to move the ball against them and Iowa will figure out a way to score enough points to pull this one out. Minnesota hasn’t proven they can beat anyone who will punch back yet this season. I’ll say Iowa 20, Minnesota 10.
Marshall (-2.5) (-110) @ Georgia Southern (Draft Kings)
Georgia Southern probably has a bottom 5 defense in the FBS right now. I don’t think that’s an exaggeration. They’ve given up 435+ yards in 8 of their last 9 games. They’re getting absolutely killed against the run as you can see in the photo below. Some of those offenses like ODU & Louisiana have not been very impressive at all outside of their games against Georgia Southern.
On the other side of the ball, there offense has slowed down a little bit the last few weeks. They’re still capable of moving the ball pretty consistently but their QB VanTrease leads the FBS is Turnover Worthy Plays according to PFF. When you have a defense that can’t stop anyone, you can’t be turning the ball over. Marshall is +6 in TOs this year and should be able to take advantage a few times on Saturday. They’ve also been running the ball really well lately and should have their way with this soft Georgia Southern defense. I’ll take Marshall by 10+.
Oklahoma/Oklahoma State Over 65.5 (-115) (Fan Duel)
Both of these offenses are top 5 in the Nation in pace so this is a game that figures to have lots of possessions and lots of offensive plays. Neither defense is particularly impressive. Prior to last week’s game against Iowa State (which is one of the worst offenses in the B12) Oklahoma State had given up 31+ in 5 games. It’s certainly been a disappointing year for Oklahoma, but this is still an offense capable of putting up big numbers against weak defenses (45 vs UTEP, 49 vs Nebraska, 34 vs Kansas State, 52 vs Kansas, 35 vs Baylor). On the other side of the ball, Spencer Sanders should be healthy and ready to go at QB for the Pokes and I think Mike Gundy will be busting out all the stops in one of the last Bedlam games we are going to see in awhile. This is an OU defense that we saw give up 41 to Kansas State, 55 to TCU, 49 to Texas, 42 to Kansas & 38 to Baylor. I think one team will break 40 in this game and the other team should end up in the 30’s.
Official Plays – Week 12
Illinois/Michigan Under 43.5 (-114) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.42 Units to win 3.00 Units
Kansas State (-7) (-120) @ West Virginia (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.60 Units to win 3.00 Units
Georgia State @ James Madison (-9) (-110) (Caesars)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Louisiana Tech/Charlotte Over 64.5 (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Iowa (+3) (-110) @ Minnesota (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Marshall (-2.5) (-110) @ Georgia Southern (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Oklahoma/Oklahoma State Over 65.5 (-115) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units
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