Official Plays – Week 13

Rather than creating a new post for each futures bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets and subscribe to my Patreon to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.

Last Week Recap

Last Week: 4-6, -6.95 Units
YTD: 52-47, +6.96 Units

Last Week

The Midweek Maction was annoying. Ball State was covering with about 2 minutes left and had the ball, but threw an INT with a long return and then used their timeouts even though the game was over to force Ohio to kick a FG and give up the cover. Then we beat the closing line in the Central Michigan game by 5+ points but a blizzard rolled in and made the conditions crazy and unpredictable.

Saturday was 4-4. The wins we’re pretty legit: Illinois/Michigan deserved to go under, Kansas State & Marshall covers we’re pretty much never in doubt. I guess we got some turnovers in the Iowa-Minnesota game, but Iowa is one of the rare teams where you bet on them kind of expecting the defense to force some TOs given their track record.

A few of the Saturday loses we’re a little frustrating. The Charlotte/La Tech over was a sure thing loss. Oklahoma/Oklahoma State put up a bunch of yards but couldn’t finish drives after the first quarter so a deserved loss. Temple missed the cover by one score in a game where they lost the TO battle by -4. That one would have gone the other way with just a -2 or -3 TO loss. And then the JMU loss really sucked. They fumbled 7 times! Even with only 6 fumbles they probably would have covered as they we’re going in for a score that would have put them up double digits before fumbling a 7th time. Not much you can do about that.

I think it’s important to recap like this each week. It helps you assess your process and if you need to make changes. I believe that the process is still solid and will continue to keep grinding. It’s just been one of those stretches…

On to Week 13…

Week 13 Official Play Write-Ups

I’m keeping the writeups a little shorter this year in the interest of my time and also because by the time I’m able to get to the writeups a lot of the lines have moved a lot any way.

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Mississippi State @ Ole Miss (-4) (-110) (Draft Kings)

I played this one on the lookahead line last Thursday night. Then Ole Miss went out and lost to Arkansas and now the line is around -2.5 or -3. Obviously I wish I would have waited and gotten that line, but the Arkansas loss didn’t really change my read on this game. I’m still liking Ole Miss to cover the -4. I’m willing to chalk that one up to a hang over from the Alabama game. Ole Miss literally gained more than 700 yards in the game so it’s tough to be too down on them… they just didn’t finish drives.

Mississippi State is a team that hasn’t looked great on the road this season, losing all 3 SEC road games. The Alabama & LSU losses are understandable but the 10-point loss at Kentucky (giving up 478 yards to that offense) doesn’t look good. They’ve given up some really high totals on the ground this year: 206 to LSU, 241 to Arkansas, 239 to Kentucky & 256 to Auburn. Ole Miss has a very strong rushing attack having rushed for over 390 yards in 3 of their last 5 SEC games and averaging a very impressive 277 rushing yards/game in SEC play. I just think they are going to be able to run the ball at will in this game and it’s going to be too hard for Mississippi State to keep up.

Florida @ Florida State TT Over 33.5 (-125) (Draft Kings)

Opting for Team Total instead of the -9.5 because in a perfect world Anthony Richardson could go off for Florida and keep this game close/turn it in to a bit of a shootout. The last really mobile QB FSU faced this year was Malik Cunningham all the way back in Week 3 and they scored 31 points on 495 yards in that one. Richardson is similar to Cunningham, so perhaps that’s possible. That’s why I elected the TT route rather than the -9.5.

Florida State’s offense has been getting better and better each week. Granted the competition hasn’t been very strong lately but they have still scored 38+ in their last 4 games and that is with them calling the dogs off late. They’ve run the ball for 200+ in their last 6 games which is an area where the Florida defense has struggled at times this year (Utah, USF, LSU, Tennessee, Georgia). It seems like the Florida defense is running on fumes a little bit right now and even gave up 31 last week to Vanderbilt (granted that point total was a little misleading with the amount of yards they gave up). They’re pretty beat up defensively and one of their best LB Ventrell Miller is out for the first half from a targeting penalty. From listening to the NoleCast podcast this week it seems likely that FSU will play at an increased tempo this week offensively to challenge the lack of depth on the Florida defensive line. This will benefit an over play as it will increase plays, possessions, etc.

Georgia State @ Marshall (-5.5) (-110) (Draft Kings)

Marshall easily covered for us last week against one of the Georgia Sun Belt teams, so let’s go back to the well again this week.

Georgia State comes into this game riding a 2-game losing streak to ULM & James Madison which gives them 7-losses on the year making it impossible for them to reach 6 wins for bowl eligibility. Typically that can be a good spot to bet against a team after they’ve lost their shot at a bowl game. Don’t let their 40 points against JMU last week fool you, they gained only 257 yards but JMU handed them fumble after fumble to keep them in the game. Georgia State’s offense has struggled against the better Sun Belt defenses that they’ve faced in App State & JMU and now will face one of the best (except for maybe Troy) this week with Marshall. Marshall’s defense has held their opponents under 300 yards in 4 of their last 5 games and will hopefully put up a similar performance to JMU’s defense (without their offense giving their opponent short fields and defensive TDs).

Marshall’s offense hasn’t been very good this year but they are coming off their best performance of the year gaining 529 yards against Georgia Southern. Yes, Georgia Southern’s defense is trash but another factor to consider is that Marshall got their stud RB Rasheen Ali back for the first game all season last week. He rushed for over 1,400 yards last year and is a big impact guy that the power rankings based on Marshall’s season stats aren’t accounting for. I think Marshall should be able to win this one by more than a TD.

Northwestern @ Illinois (-11.5) (-110) (Caesars)

Northwestern had perhaps the worst power 5 offense in the Country when they had their #1 QB in. Now for this game they will likely be on their #3 QB going against one of the best defenses in the Nation. They we’re only able to muster up 9 points last week vs a Purdue team that was on auto polit after only scoring 3 points the week before against Minnesota. I’d be surprised to see the offense account for double digit points in this game against this Illini defense.

This Illinois team should be coming into this game pretty pissed off after losing 3 straight games, including a tough one to Michigan last week. Northwestern’s defensive coordinator Jim O’Neil doesn’t really know what he’s doing and they’ve been crushed on the ground time and again this season: 221 yards to Duke, 216 to Miami (OH), 220 to Penn State, 257 to Maryland, 207 to Ohio State, and 302 to Minnesota. Chase Brown and this offensive line should have a field day against this rushing defense. I’d expect the Illini to put up 250+ on the ground in this game. Brett Bielema wasn’t shy about running up the score when he was at Wisconsin and with this being an in-state rivalry game, I’ll think he’ll do it here if he gets the chance. The game is in Evanston but there will be more Illini fans than Wildcats fans at this one by a wide margin (trust me, I’ve been to a lot of Northwestern games in my life). I think the Illini run away with this one and cover pretty easily. I’ll say Illini win by 24.

Appalachian State (-4) (-120) @ Georgia Southern (Caesars)

Georgia Southern looks like a team in quit mode to me. We cashed our Marshall -2.5 bet against them easily last week and riding a 3-game losing streak I think it’s unlikely they will pick themselves up off the mat in the last game of the year against a physical team like App St.

As you can see below, Southern continues to have one of the worst defenses in the Nation and have given up 461+ yards in 8 straight games and 9 of their last 10. I expect App State to be able to push them around and score a whole lot of points in this one.

Georgia Southern

On the other side of the ball, Kyle Van Trease continues to be right at the top of the PFF leaderboards in turnover worthy plays. He was questionable last week against Marshall and honestly didn’t look very healthy in that game. What was once a high-powered offense was only able to muster up 10 points. The week before they only scored 17 against Lousiana. These are their two lowest point totals of the season. It definitely looks like they’ve peaked on the season and are ready to pack it in for the year. I like App by double digits here.

Official Plays – Week 13

Mississippi State @ Ole Miss (-4) (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Florida @ Florida State TT Over 33.5 (-125) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.75 Units to win 3.00 Units

Georgia State @ Marshall (-5.5) (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Northwestern @ Illinois (-11.5) (-110) (Caesars)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Appalachian State (-4) (-120) @ Georgia Southern (Caesars)
Risking 3.60 Units to win 3.00 Units

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