Official Plays – Week 14

Rather than creating a new post for each futures bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets and subscribe to my Patreon to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.

Last Week Recap

Last Week: 2-4, -7.65 Units
YTD: 54-52, -4.89 Units

Last Week

Officially crossed over from positive to negative this week. That’s obviously very frustrating. I’m hoping to leave the month of November in the dust and start fresh here with a new month. I work very hard at this and all I can guarantee is that you’ll continue to get my best effort. Beyond that, nothing is guaranteed. Sometimes the ball bounces funny, sometimes 18 year old kids are really hard to predict. Do I believe that that I’ll turn this around? Yes, absolutely… or I’d quit. But I certainly can’t guarantee it.

Regarding last week, the two winners we’re easy: FSU team total flew over & Illinois won by 38.

The Ole Miss loss was a bad pick. I handicapped that one incorrectly. Marshall was a tough backdoor to lose by the hook. App State was terrible in the redzone and had a tougher time getting stops than I expected. I thought the Texas/Baylor live under was the right side, the defenses just forced some turnovers late that led to points.

On to Week 14…

Week 14 Official Play Write-Ups

I’m keeping the writeups a little shorter this year in the interest of my time and also because by the time I’m able to get to the writeups a lot of the lines have moved a lot any way.

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Utah vs USC (-118) (Fan Duel)
Utah vs USC TT Over 34.5 (-105) (Draft Kings)

Utah won in the regular season matchup, but I think USC will get their revenge in the rematch. We saw this happen a few times during Lincoln Riley’s tenure at Oklahoma where a team beat him in the regular season, but when he got a second chance at them in the conference championship he got the upper hand (2018 Texas, 2020 Iowa State). I think that will be the case here as well. Utah one by 1-point when they played in the regular season on a last minute 2-point conversion. It was a game played in Salt Lake City with a really wild home environment and a team that was honoring a teammate that had passed away. It was a great spot for Utah and they got some questionable officiating to go their way as well. Despite all that, Bill Connelly still had USC with a 50%+ post-game win expectancy in that one. USC seems to be playing their best football right now with QB Caleb Williams playing at a Hesiman level and both WR Williams & Addison are back again. They are coming off back-to-back big wins @ UCLA & vs Notre Dame and seem to be clicking right now. Utah QB Cam Rising played a great game vs USC, but has been up and down this season and overall hasn’t been as good as last year. He missed the game following the USC game and hasn’t been spectacular since returning from that injury. Two weeks ago he threw 3 INT in the loss to Oregon. Yes, he played well last week vs Colorado, but Colorado is legitimately the worst power 5 team in the County this season. I think USC wins the rematch and advances to the College Football Playoff. USC scored 42 points in Salt Lake City despite going 0-for-2 on 4th down. I think their offense has improved since then and this game is on a faster track at Allegiant Stadium. I think it’s a good bet to expect them to score 35+ as well.

Weber State @ Montana State (-178)
LSU vs Georgia (-1000)

Montana State won 43-38 when these teams met in the regular season. It was a really wild game. A lot of people are pointing out that the Bobcats benefitted from 4 safeties in that game (thanks to some crazy long snapping issues on the Weber State side), but it’s also important to note that Weber State benefitted from 2 special teams return TD’s themselves. Since this game Montana State has cleaned up their kick coverage issues. Montana State held a 43-24 lead with 3:14 left in that game and outgained Weber State by 149 yards. The Bobcats gained 6.5 yards per play vs. 4.89 for Weber State. The Bobcats are a lot healthier since playing that game. They didn’t have backup QB (Wyoming transfer) Sean Chambers, who is a significant part of their running game running for 706 yards and 17 TD on the season. He will be able to take some of the load off QB1 Tommy Mellott who ran it over 30 times during their first game (like we saw in the Cat-Grizz game a few weeks ago). Montana State’s rushing attack has been hitting on all cylinders lately. In their two most recent games they ran for 54-554-10.3 @ Cal Poly and 66-439-6.7 against a playoff Montana team (they outgained them 561-315 in that game). If that wasn’t good enough, they will be getting RB Isaiah Ifanse back from the first time all season in this game. He rushed for over 1,600 yards last season and should make this offense even more dangerous. The Bobcats are clicking on all cylinders right now and I expect them to be able to run at will in this one, quite possibly over 400 yards for the 3rd game in a row. With the game being in Bozeman I expect the Cats to advance to the next round.

Added Georgia ML to get the juice down. They are a significantly better football team than LSU and LSU QB Jayden Daniels was seen in a walking boot this week. If his mobility is limited against this defense it can get real ugly. Georgia didn’t win the conference championship last year (despite winning the National Championship), so I expect them to be a little salty about that.

Purdue vs Michigan (-14) (-110) (Fan Duel)

Michigan has won their 3 biggest games this season all by 22+ points: @ OSU they won by 22, vs MSU they won by 22 & vs PSU they won by 24. They seem to get up for the big games and step on their opponent’s throat. In the Big Ten Championship game, they get a Purdue team that is significantly worse than Ohio State & Penn State (but better than Michigan State). They are very one dimensional on offense, as they don’t run the ball well at all and typically sling it around with QB Aidan O’Connell. I think stylistically, a physical team like Michigan will give them trouble. Wisconsin & Iowa are two teams that play in the same mold as Michigan (just nowhere near as well) and Purdue lost to Wisconsin 35-24 & Iowa 24-3. As strange as it sounds, some people might point to a possible let down spot for Michigan in the Big Ten championship game after their huge win in Columbus last week, but the scenario was exactly the same last year and Harbaugh had them ready to play and crush Iowa 42-3 in the Title game. I think Michigan will be able to manhandle Purdue up front in this one and score consistently. I don’t think the one-dimensional Purdue offense will score enough to keep up, and Michigan will walk away with a 20+ point win.

Official Plays – Week 14

Utah vs USC (-118) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.54 Units to win 3.00 Units

Utah vs USC TT Over 34.5 (-105) (Draft Kings)
Risking 1.57 Units to win 1.50 Units

2-Line Parlay (Fan Duel) (-140)
Weber State @ Montana State (-178)
LSU vs Georgia (-1000)
Risking 4.20 Units to win 3.00 Units

Purdue vs Michigan (-14) (-110) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

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