Official Plays – Week 15

Rather than creating a new post for each futures bet, I am just going to pin this post for the week and go in and add information and plays as they come in. As always, follow me on twitter @MikeyLoBets and subscribe to my Patreon to be notified as soon as I make any official plays.

Last Week Recap

Last Week: 2-2, +0.89 Units
YTD: 56-54, -4.00 Units

Last Week

I would have liked to have seen how that Utah-USC game would have ended up if Caleb Williams didn’t hurt this hamstring. USC jumped out to an early 17-3 lead, but after Caleb got hurt things really snowballed for them. It seemed like it got worse for him as the game went on and near the end he could barely move. The USC defense was terrible, but their offense was humming before the injury. I think the TT over definitely would have hit if he didn’t get hurt and possibly the game as well. It happens.

Montana State/Georgia was an easy winner for us and then we may have finally caught a break with Michigan -14 cashing. The yardage was pretty close, but Purdue couldn’t do anything in the redzone settling for Field Goal after Field Goal. Between that and the turnovers, we may have been fortunate to cover that one. But after what we’ve been through this year, I’m not going to apologize for it.

It’s nice to see a + sign for last week’s results, even if the profit is less than a unit. It’s been too long.

On to Week 15…

Week 15 Official Play Write-Ups

I’m keeping the writeups a little shorter this year in the interest of my time and also because by the time I’m able to get to the writeups a lot of the lines have moved a lot any way.

Patreon Pic

8-Point Fan Duel Teaser (-110)
William & Mary @ Montana State (+0.5)
Holy Cross @ South Dakota State (-6.5)

5-Point Fan Duel Teaser (+137)
William & Mary @ Montana State (-2.5)
Holy Cross @ South Dakota State (-9.5)

I don’t typically recommend teasers in College Football because of how high variance the sport is, but from my experience FCS playoffs are kind of the exception. These typically go pretty chalk as the upper tier teams are usually much better than the rest of the field. For this play, I’m putting 2 of the units on the -110 8-point teaser & 1 unit on the +137 5-point teaser. It worked out nicely that we we’re able to get under key numbers with both plays.

William & Mary and Montana State play similar styles of football, I just think Montana State does it better. Both teams run the ball really well, but Montana State has done it in the Big Sky while William & Mary did it in the CAA. I think the Big Sky is a much better conference now, especially with James Madison having left the CAA for the Sun Belt.

Montana State’s offense is really hitting on all cylinders lately. They’ve played two really strong teams in their last two games (Montana & Weber State) and have run all over them (more than 800 rushing yards and 8 yards/carry in 2 games!). They have a 2 QB system where they sometimes are both on the field at the same time that has been really effective. I don’t see any signs of them slowing down.

This is also a tough spot for William & Mary. It’s a short week, playing on Friday night after playing on Saturday afternoon. They have to travel pretty much across the country from Willamsburg, VA to Bozeman, MT to play under the lights at altitude in very cold Montana temperatures in front of what is usually a strong Montana State crowd. I think the travel and spot is going to be tough for them to overcome when I already think Montana State is the better team if all things are equal.

Moving on the South Dakota State game. The Jackrabbits are playing like the best FCS team in the country. They play in the strongest conference in the FCS (the MVC) and have beat opponents by double digits in 8 of their 11 FCS games. Most recently they absolutely destroyed Delaware 42-6 in their first playoff game. They have a big strong offensive line and a strong rushing attack with RB Davis & QB Gronowski. This was a team that was able to run it for 200+ in the Fargo Dome against North Dakota State. I just don’t think Holy Cross has the horses to keep this one close. When they played in the 2021 Spring season SDSU won 31-3. Granted Holy Cross may be a better team than they we’re at that point, but I still don’t think they’ve closed the gap significantly. I think SDSU wins this one by 17+.

Official Plays – Week 15

8-Point Fan Duel Teaser (-110)
William & Mary @ Montana State (+0.5)
Holy Cross @ South Dakota State (-6.5)
Risking 2.20 Units to win 2.00 Units

5-Point Fan Duel Teaser (+137)
William & Mary @ Montana State (-2.5)
Holy Cross @ South Dakota State (-9.5)
Risking 1.00 Unit to win 1.37 Units

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