Week 1 Recap

Week 1: 0-1-1, -2.04 Units
YTD: 0-1-1, -2.04 Units

A pretty unlucky week to be honest. Arlington -2 pushed despite the Renegades being up by 8 with under a minute left. They gave up a TD with about 15 seconds left after going really soft on defense, but stopped the 2-pt conversion. Our CLV got us a push, but the closing number lost. It was one we could have had.

Then I played SA +2.5 live at halftime on Sunday. This one still stings. They we’re winning by 12 with 1:25 left and a series of unlikely events led to them giving up 15 points in the last 85 seconds. This included two late TDs, a 3-point conversion from the 10 yard line & converting a 4th & 15 as an “onside kick.” The cover probability was probably over 98% with about 2 minutes left. We got robbed here and I’m still salty.

Week 2 Official Plays

Please note some lines will have moved from the time I posted them in my Patreon to the time I publish this post. Dates/times of when I entered each play is included below.

St. Louis @ Seattle (-2) (-120) (Draft Kings)
Risking 2.40 Units to win 2.00 Units
Posted: 2/20 @ 3:42 PM

STL is 1-0 @ SEA is 0-1 but honestly those records should probably be flipped. STL couldn’t do anything all game vs SA and trailed 15-3 with under 2 minutes left before pulling off an insane comeback win against a defense that had no idea how to run a prevent defense.

Seattle had a 1.1 yards/play advantage over DC but the Greg Williams D forced 3 TO including one pick six. Even with that, they still had a 1st and goal at the end of the game with a chance to win but called a stupid run with Dinucci that resulted in a lost fumble.

This is a short week Thursday night game with both teams playing on only 3 days rest. The St. Louis defense has on the field all day on Sunday as their opponent (San Antonio) ran 77 plays (the highest total of the weekend). Now they have to play a very talented Seattle offense at home that also is capable of putting up long drives (they ran 75 plays… the second highest of the weekend followed by a big gap). I think the offense will be able to wear down this STL defense on a short week with WR Josh Gordon being the X-Factor.

The Seattle defense was #1 in YPP (3.3) in Week 1 against a DC team that I still think is very talented. Now they get to go against a STL team in their home opener that only scored 3 points in the first 3.5 quarters and allowed 5 sacks.

This will be a Thursday night game and SEA had one of the highest attendances in the 2020 edition of the XFL. I think Seattle is the better team and the home field advantage is a nice bonus.

San Antonio (-3) (-110) @ Orlando (Draft Kings)
Risking 2.20 Units to win 2.00 Units
Posted: 2/20 @ 3:42 PM

Right now Orlando is an easy pick for last in my power rankings. They look very poorly coached by the inexperienced Terrell Buckley. They lost 33-12 to Houston and their first TD was pretty lucky (probably should have been called an INT). They allowed 7 total sacks. Now they have to go up against a strong San Antonio pass rush that got 5 sacks last week vs STL. I think that is a recipe for disaster.

Their defense allowed the most YPP (5.22). As I wrote in the earlier writeup, the San Antonio offense was pretty strong with their ball control and was on the field for 75 plays. I think they should be able to have some more success against this weak ORL defense and should be anxious to get the bad taste out of their mouth from that Week 1 collapse.

Arlington @ Houston (-3) (-120) (Draft Kings)
Risking 2.40 Units to win 2.00 Units
Posted: 2/20 @ 3:42 PM

Arlington was fortunate to escape the Vegas game with a win. They we’re pretty much outplayed but benefited from 3 turnovers and two defensive TDs. Their offense was not impressive at all, gaining only 4.2 YPP (6th out of 8 in the league) and didn’t really score any points on their own.

Houston looked really good in their opening win and look to have some strong offensive weapons with Max Broghi and Jontre Kirklin. They were #1 in YPP (5.2) and points scored (33). I like them at home to win by more than a FG against an Arlington team that probably deserved to lose at home to Vegas last week.

DC (+3.5) (-110) @ Vegas (Fan Duel)
Risking 2.20 Units to win 2.00 Units
Posted: 2/22 @ 7:26 PM

I’m surprised to see DC getting more than a FG this week. They became a much better team in the second half of their week one victory over Seattle when they inserted dual threat QB E’Riq King into their lineup. I wrote about King when I played the DC +650 future as he was a guy I liked a lot in college. He added a RPO threat to their offense that I haven’t seen from anyone else in this league. I think defenses will have a hard time stopping it. They played much better with him at QB than Ta’amu so I’d expect to see more of him this week.

Vegas QB Luis Perez had 3 Turnover Worthy plays in Week 1 (tied for #1 in the PFF leaderboards). Now he has to go against a Greg Williams coached defense. Williams is known for getting pressure on opposing QBs and I think that will force Perez into more bad decisions. DC forced 3 turnovers in Week one (including a Pick 6) and I think they will be able to do more of the same against Perez.

I have DC power ranked above Vegas and this game about a pick’em at Vegas, so I’ll gladly take the +3.5 here.

EDIT: One thing I forgot to add. Po’oka Williams “practiced without limitations” today. He didn’t play for DC in Week one. He was a really good RB at Kansas. I’m not sure if he will be a RB or WR in the XFL (I’ve heard both), but he can make a difference with the ball in his hands.

On the other side, Vegas best defender former NFL DE/LB Vic Beasley once again DNP today at practice as he is in concussion protocol.

XFL Week 2 Official Card

St. Louis @ Seattle (-2) (-120) (Draft Kings)
Risking 2.40 Units to win 2.00 Units

DC (+3.5) (-110) @ Vegas (Fan Duel)
Risking 2.20 Units to win 2.00 Units

San Antonio (-3) (-110) @ Orlando (Draft Kings)
Risking 2.20 Units to win 2.00 Units

Arlington @ Houston (-3) (-120) (Draft Kings)
Risking 2.40 Units to win 2.00 Units