Last Week Recap:

Week 2: 3-1, + 3.80 Units
YTD: 3-2, + 1.76 Units

I’m feeling really good about my reads so far. The only losses were a Week 1 game where my +2.5 bet blew a 12 point lead with 1:25 left in the game & this week with Seattle where they outgained their opponent by 1.8 YPP but lost the TO battle 3-0.

The 3 wins this week went pretty much exactly the way we thought. Vegas had a really hard time stopping the RPO once DC finally went to D’Eriq King at QB.

Orlando clearly looked like the #8 team in the league (like we thought) and are very poorly coached. They committed 13 penalties en route to an 18 point home loss.

The Arlington offense really struggled with the Houston defense, giving up 5 sacks and only gaining 2.3 Yards/Play (worst single game performance of the year so far in the league)

Official Plays – XFL Week 3

Please note some lines will have moved from the time I posted them in my Patreon to the time I publish this post. Dates/times of when I entered each play is included below.

Seattle (-2.5) (-110) @ Vegas (Draft Kings)
Risking 2.20 Units to win 2.00 Units
Posted: 2/27 @ 1:53 PM

Seattle has killed themselves with the TO this season. They are averaging 3 TO/game which is the worst in the league. But I can’t quit them quite yet, because if they can just clean up the TO the rest of their stats are really good. They are #1 in the league in Net YPP, Penalties, Offensive YPP & Sacks allowed. And that came against two pretty good teams: @ DC (2-0), vs STL (2-0).

They played on Thursday night (perhaps the short week contributed to their sloppy play?) so they get 2 extra days to rest, prepare and correct their issues. If they just clean up the sloppy play the rest of their metrics are looking good.

I have Vegas power ranked as #7 right now. They’re really struggling on offense right now scoring only 13 ppg (#7) & have run the fewest plays in the league. The team is coached by Rod Woodson and perhaps the inexperience in the coaching staff is showing at their 7.5 penalties/game is 2nd to last in the league. They did start to play former NFL QB Brett Hundley more last week (in place of Luis Perez) but neither was very effective running the offense as they scored only 6 points on 3.8 ypp.

I think Seattle is the better team here. I’m taking a little bit of a leap of faith that they will stop putting the ball on the turf or throwing the ball to the other team, but if TOs are even in this one, I think Seattle should win by a TD or more.

St. Louis @ DC (-130) (Fan Duel)
Risking 2.60 Units to win 2.00 Units
Posted: 2/27 @ 2:15 PM

This should be a fun game as both teams are 2-0 and playing for first place in the XFL North division. But I think that DC’s 2-0 record is more legit right now than St. Louis 2-0 record. In fact, the Battlehawks were kind of lucky to come away with both victories. They trailed 15-3 in Week 1 with 1:25 before pulling off a crazy comeback win & then in Week 2 they we’re outgained by a whopping 1.8 yards/play but we’re handed a win thanks to 3 Seattle turnovers. Despite their 2-0 record they are only 6th out of 8 teams in Net YPP and currently have the lowest overall PFF rating (granted PFF is still updating some of the later Week 2 games).

The metrics aren’t good for the St. Louis defense. They are last in the league in YPP (5.1), 2nd to last in Yards/Rush (4.15) & last in sacks/game (1). The rush defense is particularly concerning because both of their opponents (San Antonio & Seattle) rushed the ball dramatically worse in the other game they played:

SA 3.4 Yards/Rush vs STL compared to only 2.5 vs lowly Orlando
Seattle: 4.9 Yards/Rush vs STL compared to only 3.0 vs DC

Now this struggling rush defense has to play a DC team that is coming off a stellar 5.5 yards/rush game vs Vegas in Week 2. As I predicted, once they made the move to D’Eriq King the RPO was nearly unstoppable. My hope is that the DC coaching staff will be quicker to go to King in this game after seeing how much STL has struggled to stop the run. I think they have a clear edge there.

One possible advantage on the other side of the ball is that the STL offense is allowing 4 sacks/game (2nd to last in the XFL). While DC doesn’t have a ton of sacks to their name yet, I would look for their pass rush to continue to improve under Greg Williams. He is known for being able to generate pressure and this could be a get-right matchup for that.

DC has one of the best home field advantages in the XFL. I don’t love that STL has 2 extra days to prepare (having played on Thursday) but this is also their 3rd road game in a row so I’ll call that a wash. I like the Defenders to get the win at home behind a strong RPO rushing attack.

Official Card – XFL Week 3

Seattle (-2.5) (-110) @ Vegas (Draft Kings)
Risking 2.20 Units to win 2.00 Units

St. Louis @ DC (-130) (Fan Duel)
Risking 2.60 Units to win 2.00 Units