Please note that all of my plays are posted first on my Patreon. The dates/times that each play was posted is listed below. As you’ll see some of them were submitted awhile ago so obviously some of the lines have moved and some of the writeups might be a tad outdated.

To get my plays as soon as I lock them in, you can subscribe to my Patreon. You’ll get all of my CFB plays and writeups on time as well as my NFL Pass Attempt model projections (starting Week 4 or 5) that hit 69% last season.

NOTE: These are all my plays at the time of publishing this blog. Some plays will be added throughout the season after the weekly publishing of this post (FCS plays, player props, live plays, etc.) The best way to get those is to subscribe to my Patreon.

Last Week Recap

Week 4: 3-5, -8.31 Units
YTD: 26-20, (56.5%), +5.48 Units

I hit some regression this week. As much as I would have loved it, it was unlikely that I was going to hit 60% all year. I had a tough end to the card with Illinois getting backdoored because they allowed a 97 yard drive to FAU & Irving missing his line by a couple yards because Colorado couldn’t keep the game within 30.

But to be fair, the Coleman & FSU wins could have gone the other way too. The thing with the FSU game was that Jordan Travis was clearly more injured than Norvell led on program because they clearly protected him in the running game which made everything tougher for our bets.

I loved the Hudson Card bet pregame but he let me down. The SMU and Travis bets were duds. That’s what sunk the car. Still up +5.48 Units this year with a futures card that is looking really good right now.

On to Week 5…

NCAA Football Week 4 Official Play Write-Ups

Started the week off with a nice Thursday night winner on Malachai Corley Over 7.5 Receptions cashing in the first half!

Louisiana Tech (+1) (-110) @ UTEP (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 9/29 @ 7:07 AM

La Tech may have found something with Jack Turner taking over at QB for an injured Hank Bachmeier. It seems likely that Turner will start again tonight with Bachmeier still recovering potentially serving as the backup. They also may be getting some key players back at RB & WR. Turner played impressively against North Texas and was solid last week @ Nebraska.

UTEP is really struggling this season and I’m not sure how much effort they are still playing with under HC Dana Dimel. They lost by 31 @ Northwestern, 21 @ Arizona & 17 vs UNLV the last 3 weeks allowing 30+ points in all 3 games. Their starting QB, Gavin Hardison, is a game time decision this week and from listening to the Miner Talk podcast they think it’s actually more likely that he does not play.

I think the vibes are better right now with La Tech and I expect them to win an ugly game tonight.

Buffalo/Akron Over 56 (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 9/24 @ 5:27 PM

These are two really bad defenses (especially Buffalo). Both units have been giving up a ton of big plays with Akron ranking 124^th in the Nation at preventing explosive plays & Buffalo ranking 122^nd. Akron QB DJ Irons finally got it going last week against Indiana going 22-for-35 for 194 yards and adding 18 rushes from 141 yards & 2 TD. It was a game that Akron should have won if not for a missed chip shot field goal to end regulation. This is a great spot for Irons to stay hot against a Buffalo defense that is averaging 44.5 points allowed/game this season (including allowing 40 points to FCS Fordham). The last 3 Buffalo games have had 77, 82 & 83 total points. I think Akron will be able to generate plenty of offense under Joe Moorehead now that Irons seems to have found his rhythm and Buffalo will be able to get some points of their own against this Akron defense as well. One sneaky thing I like when betting overs is that both of these teams are near the bottom of the nation in standard down run %. This helps offset some of the new clock rules because they are typically either picking up chunks of yards on standard downs or the clock is stopping via an incomplete pass. I see this one being a 34-27 type game.

USC/Colorado Under 74.5 (-115) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 9/28 @ 11:28 AM

Let me say this first. The USC offense is awesome and the Colorado defense is terrible. I make that bet fully knowing that. But I still think this number is too high.

This is a game that kicks off at 11 AM Central time which is 9 AM local time for these teams. It’s possible that we see USC get off to a slow start because of this. I think defenses have learned that the Colorado pass protection is so bad that they don’t need to send extra guys to get pressure, so they can drop everyone back into coverage. This will take away the big play for Colorado and force them to take smaller gains if they want to move the ball. They are also capable of giving up a drive killing sack at any point because their protection is pretty terrible.

I also think Deion understands that his team has no chance in this one. Last week at Oregon he played not to get embarrassed. We saw that last week when he elected to punt in the first quarter in Oregon territory on a 4^th and manageable. He didn’t coach that game aggressively to win. I think we will see something similar this week.

Games with a total of 70.5 or higher have gone under 69.4% of the time over the last two seasons: 21-9 in 2021 & 20-9 in 2022.

Virginia/Boston College Over 54.5 (-112) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.36 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 9/26 @ 5:57 AM

The Boston College offense has had back to back good showings against two of the betters teams in the ACC Conference: Scoring 29 vs FSU & 28 vs Louisville. They had 16 plays of 20+ yards in those two games and QB Thomas Castellanos has been playing really well (357 all purpose yards/game vs FSU & Louisville. Their offense is playing at a really fast pace ranking #7 in seconds/play.

The defense continues to struggle however. They rank 127^th in YPP, 132^nd in opposing QBR, 103^rd in defensive explosiveness & 128^th in passing defensive explosiveness. The UVA offense has been hitting on big plays, ranking 21^st in explosiveness and 24^th in passing explosiveness. I do wish they were sticking with Colandrea at QB rather than going back to the now healthy starter Muskett because of how erratic Colandrea has been, but I’m hopeful they will still be able to score with Muskett against this soft defense.

I see this one being a 31-28 type game.

Miami (OH) TT Over 31.5 @ Kent State (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 9/28 @ 11:18 AM

The downside of this bet is that Miami plays pretty slowly, but the upside is that they’ve been hitting a ton of big plays and are going up against a terrible Kent State defense. They are 130^th in defensive explosive plays, 126^th in defensive EPA/play, 120^th in Points/Opportunity & 127^th in defensive success rate. They’ve given up 50+ points twice already this season: 56 to UCF & 53 to Fresno State.

Miami has a good veteran QB with Brett Gabbert. Despite playing slowly they’ve been putting up high point totals this season: 41 @ UMass, 31 @ Cincinnati (OT), & 62 vs FCS Delaware State. They’re 17^th in Explosive Plays, 15^th in EPA/play, & 9^th in Yards/Play.

Gabbert is 6^th in the country in Average Depth of Target per PFF at 13.2 yards per pass. He’s been throwing the deep ball a ton and is going up against a Kent State team that has allowed a ton of big plays this season.

I have Miami ending in the high 30’s or low 40’s in this one.

Jayden Daniels (LSU) Over 279.5 (-115) Pass Yds @ Ole Miss (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 9/29 @ 12:51 PM

This line is a little light. Daniels has sailed over this number in all 3 FBS games this season: 320 vs Arkansas, 361 @ Mississippi State & 346 vs Florida State. I haven’t been overly impressed with the Ole Miss pass defense. Haynes King and Georgia Tech to go for 307 against them. I think LSU will continue to struggle running the ball and need to go to the air early and often in this one.

Iowa State @ Oklahoma (-17.5) (-115) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 9/24 @ 4:47 PM

We’ve seen this Iowa State offense really struggle at times this season. They only put up 13 points vs Iowa (which included a late TD) and followed that up by only scoring 7 points against a MAC opponent (Ohio). Now they have to travel into a hostile environment and play a night game in Norman against a really strong Brent Venables-led Oklahoma team. I just don’t see them mustering much offense in this one. I’m not sure how they score unless it’s a freak play. It’s hard to imagine them putting long drives together. This Oklahoma defense has held Arkansas State to 0, SMU to only 11 & last week at Cincinnati to only 6.

The Iowa State defense is strong, but I think they will wear down in this one especially if their offense can’t put drives together. This OU offense has topped 66 points twice this season already and return home for this one. After only scoring 20 last week and with Texas on deck I think this will be a get right spot for the offense.

I’ll say Oklahoma 35, Iowa State 10.

Official Plays – Week 5

Louisiana Tech (+1) (-110) @ UTEP (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Buffalo/Akron Over 56 (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

USC/Colorado Under 74.5 (-115) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units

Virginia/Boston College Over 54.5 (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Miami (OH) TT Over 31.5 @ Kent State (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Jayden Daniels (LSU) Over 279.5 (-115) Pass Yds @ Ole Miss (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units

Iowa State @ Oklahoma (-17.5) (-110) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units