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Last Week Recap
Week 5: 6-5, +0.14 Units
YTD: 32-25 (56.1%), +5.62 Units
Week 5 was a rollercoaster week that ended almost exactly even. The midweek CUSA plays all hit to get us off to a 3-0 start. The player props both cashed easy in the first half (and then did nothing in the second half… kind of weird) and La Tech won pretty easily.
The Saturday morning slate was rough. I was really disappointed in the two MAC games. Bad reads I guess. I was feeling good about both of those pregame and they weren’t even close.
Any time you bet an Under 74.5 and it loses it’s going to look terrible. Honestly I would probably make that play again. It just didn’t work out this time. I thought Morton was a good play, but we got sunk by 2 DST TD’s taking two possessions away from TTU. He was still on pace at halftime but they ran the ball a ton in the 2nd half.
Nice rebound with the last 3 plays. All seemed like on point reads.
Overall a fine week. We’re up 5.62 units and have a futures card that is quickly trending toward being a + double digit unit card. Honestly I’m happy where we are at right now from a big picture assessment
On to Week 6…
NCAA Football Week 5 Official Play Write-Ups
Started the week off with a 2-1 record on CUSA action. We cashed Jacksonville State +4.5 (and RSW Over 4.5) on Wednesday night and WKU -5.5 on Thursday night but lost Liberty -17.5. It’s nice to be positive on the week heading into the weekend.
Rutgers/Wisconsin Over 42.5 (-110) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 10/1 @ 11:58 AM
This total just feels about 3 points to low to me for a Phil Longo coordinated offense. This isn’t the Graham Mertz Wisconsin offense of old. This season they are playing at a much quicker pace and currently rank in the Top 20 in several key offensive categories: Standard Down Success Rate, Points/Opportunity, Rushing Success Rate, EPA/Rush & OL Yards. They have put up 35+ points in 3 of their 4 games. Rutgers defense is stingy but I still give the advantage to the Wisconsin offense and think they clear 30 in this one. Can Rutgers chip in 2 TD’s of their own? I think they can. They’ve put up 24 vs Northwestern, 36 vs Temple, 35 vs Va Tech & 52 last week vs FCS Wagner. Wisconsin’s defense has given up 17+ in 3 of their 4 games with the one exception being when Georgia Southern turned it over against them a bunch of times so they only scored 14 points despite 500+ yards of total offense. I like the over here. I’ll say 30-17.
Luther Burden (MIZ) Over 107.5 (-115) Rec Yds vs LSU (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 10/6 @ 12 PM
Burden has been a volume monster in Eli Drinkwitz’s offense this year. Eli loves to put his best playmaker in the slot and get him the ball a ton. That is exactly whats happening with Burden this season. He’s lined up in the slot over 83% of the time this season and putting up monster numbers. In all 4 games against FBS opponents he’s had double digit targets. He’s gone for 8-117 vs MTSU, 7-114 vs Kansas State, 10-177 vs Memphis & 11-140 last week @ Vanderbilt.
This game figures be an up and down game with a total of 63.5. LSU has the worst coverage grade in the SEC according to PFF and has given up some big yardage totals through the air to the good teams they’ve faced this season (Florida State, Ole Miss). I like Burden to have a monster game this week and go over 110 Rec Yds.
UTSA (-13.5) (-110) @ Temple (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 10/3 @ 6:53 PM
I downgraded Temple significantly after seeing what their defense looked like last week vs Tulsa. They are so beat up that they are playing multiple true freshman at key possessions. It doesn’t seem to be getting better for them this week. These two blurbs are taken from an article on the Temple247 page:
And it definitely showed against Tulsa. They went into that game as a pretty short underdog but they got blown away allowing 48 points on 533 yards (289 on the ground) in a 22 point loss.
UTSA seems to be going the other way with their health. They are getting stud QB Frank Harris back this week. While he may not be 100% yet he’s been one of the best G5 QBs in the Nation the last two seasons and they are always better with him on the field. Coming off a bye they are getting some other key guys back as well (another article from 247):
I think we will see a sense of urgency from UTSA in this one. They are off to a really disappointing start to the season but they still have one of the best G5 QB/Coach combos in the Nation. They are getting healthier and going up against a really beat up inexperienced Temple team. I think they pour it on.
North Texas/Navy Over 61 (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 10/2 @ 5:18 PM
I lowkey can’t wait for this game. With the new North Texas HC this season pretty much every game has been wild: 58-21 loss to Cal, 46-39 loss to FIU, 40-37 win vs La Tech & a 45-31 win last week to an FCS team. Every game has gone for at least 75 points. They are playing at a very fast tempo (16th in the nation) and getting a ton of big plays (Top 20 in explosive plays). They are going up against a Navy defense that ranks only 112th in success rate allowed.
The North Texas defense is probably the worst in the country? You saw they just gave up 31 to a bad FCS team last week. They also gave up 46 to FIU who is a pretty terrible offense themselves. They are 127th in the Nation in yards per play slowed at 6.75. They are last in the Nation in yards per carry at 5.88. Now they are going up against a Navy team that specializes in the running game. Some people are afraid to bet an under with a service academy because they run the triple option but I think this Navy attack is going to get tons of chunk plays on the ground against this defense. They are also throwing the ball more this year than in the past with the new cut block rules.
I’ve got Navy 38-North Texas 31
Jordan Travis (FSU) Under 0.5 INT (-110) vs VT (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 10/5 @ 9 PM
Travis has been good with the ball for quite some time now. Last season he only threw 4 regular season INT in 12 games and 315 total attempts. He was under 0.5 INT in 9 of his 12 games that season. This season he threw one in the opener vs LSU but hasn’t thrown one since. According to PFF he only has 4 Turnover Worthy plays on the whole season. Virginia Tech is not a defense that has come up with a lot of INT. They only have 3 INT on the season (0.6/game) and only had 4 all of last season (0.36/game).
The game script will likely favor this play as well. FSU is a 24 point favorite so you could see them getting out to an early lead and then coasting with lots of easy passes or run plays. You wouldn’t expect them to ask him to make many dangerous throws in that situation. They may even give him some rest if they get out to an early lead since he’s been banged up this season with the shoulder injury.
Colorado State (-2.5) (-115) @ Utah State (Bet Online)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 10/5 @ 11 AM
I feel like this Ram offense is about to hit their stride as they head into conference play. After switching from Clay Millen to Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi at QB they’ve went for 35 @ Colorado (OT), 31 @ MTSU & 41 vs FCS Utah Tech. They have potentially the best WR in the conference in Tory Horton who is already up to 45 receptions for 540 yards & 6 TD in 4 games. I don’t think Utah State can cover him.
Utah State’s defense is not good. They’ve allowed 33 to UConn, 45 to James Madison & 39 to Air Force. I think the Colorado State offense will also give them fits. On offense they have to switch back to their on again/off again starting QB Copper Legas. They had made the switch to Freshman McCae Hillstead (which should tell you a little bit about Legas) but he’s hurt now so it’s back to Legas. This Utah State offense will put up points put I don’t think they will score quite enough to keep up with CSU. Logan is a tough place to play but the altitude angle is minimized here playing another Mountain team. Even on the road I think CSU gets it done.
CSU 37 Utah State 27.
Official Plays – Week 6
Rutgers/Wisconsin Over 42.5 (-110) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Luther Burden (MIZ) Over 107.5 Rec Yds (-115) vs LSU (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units
UTSA (-13.5) (-110) @ Temple (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
North Texas/Navy Over 61 (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Jordan Travis (FSU) Under 0.5 INT (-110) vs VT (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Colorado State (-2.5) (-115) @ Utah State (Bet Online)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 3.00 Units
MikeyLo Bets 