Please note that all of my plays are posted first on my Patreon. The dates/times that each play was posted is listed below. As you’ll see some of them were submitted awhile ago so obviously some of the lines have moved and some of the writeups might be a tad outdated.

To get my plays as soon as I lock them in, you can subscribe to my Patreon. You’ll get all of my CFB plays and writeups on time as well as my NFL Pass Attempt model projections (starting Week 4 or 5) that hit 69% last season.

NOTE: These are all my plays at the time of publishing this blog. Some plays will be added throughout the season after the weekly publishing of this post (FCS plays, player props, live plays, etc.) The best way to get those is to subscribe to my Patreon.

Last Week Recap

Week 6: 7-6, -0.01 Units
YTD: 40-31 (56.3%), +8.95 Units

The ending of this week was disappointing. I was trending toward a really strong week until the night games on Saturday. Some of the wins were pretty close but I think they were all the right side with the exception of the USC team total which needed OT to get there. I caught a break on that one.

Liberty, Rutgers/Wisconsin, UNT/Navy & Colorado State were all clear wrong side losses. North Texas/Navy was doomed after the opening drive when UNT had a TD overturned that resulted in a goal line stand. Goal line stands are absolute over killers. You just can’t have them. Colorado State went up 17-0 before completely collapsing. That was the biggest disappointment of the week for me and also puts our CSU RSW bet in jeopardy.

Richard Reese only got 4 carries before hobbling off. The game script wasn’t going his way but I would have liked to have seen him have a chance. You can’t control injuries.

SDSU should have covered. They moved the ball at will but a missed XP and some sloppy defense ended up costing them the cover. That one should have gone the other way in my opinion.

On to Week 7…

NCAA Football Week 7 Official Play Write-Ups

Stanford/Colorado Over 59.5 (-110) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 10/13 @ 9:45 AM

I’d expect some fireworks from the Buffs tonight at home under the lights with a very winnable game. After 3 tough matchups (@ Oregon, USC, @ Arizona State), I’d expect to see some fireworks from the Sean Lewis offense tonight. They are also likely getting Travis Hunter back. This is a Stanford defense that has allowed 56 to USC (and that was with USC basically opting out of the 2^nd half), 30 to FCS Sacramento State & 42 to Oregon. I expect Colorado to put up a bunch of points tonight and possibly cross over into the 40’s.

On the other side, Troy Taylor likes to play very fast. He is coming from FCS Sacramento State who ran a system that put up a bunch of points last year. He’s had two weeks to prepare for this game with a bye last week so I think he will have some interesting stuff cooked up for Colorado. This Colorado defense has really struggled throughout the season and I think Stanford should be able to generate offense against them.

I see this being a 41-28 type game.

Kent State/Eastern Michigan Under 44.5 (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 10/9 @ 7:23 AM

Kent State is one of the worst offense in the country. They currently rank 129^th out of 133 in EPA & 125^th out of 133 in offensive success rate. This means that they can’t sustain long drives at all. They are going up against an Eastern Michigan defense that currently ranks 14^th in preventing explosive plays. On the one hand you have an offense that hasn’t been able to sustain drives all season and on the other hand you have a defense that has been really good at preventing huge plays. That’s a formula that is going to make it tough for Kent State to score. They’re also running the ball the 24^th highest percentage in the country (56.78%) which is great for an under.

On the other side, Eastern Michigan (who is a 10.5 point favorite) currently ranks dead last 133^rd in offensive explosive plays. The Kent State defense, while bad, is decent at preventing explosive plays ranking only 78^th in that category. EMU also ranks 107^th in tempo. This means that even when they will score, it likely won’t be from big plays. It will take longer, time consuming drives since they play at a slow tempo.

At this point windy.com is also calling for 20mph wind gusts during game time. A lot can change with weather forecasts, but wind is helpful to an under.

I’ll predict a 24-10 game in this one.

Georgia (-31.5) (-105) @ Vanderbilt (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.15 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 10/12 @ 11:40 AM

After screwing around with South Carolina & Auburn it looked like Georgia finally flipped the switch last week in their 51-13 win over Kentucky. QB Carson Beck has been playing very well in my opinion and if we even get around a 60% effort from Georgia they should cover this number.

Vanderbilt has been a disappointment this season. After showing serious signs of progress last season it looks like they’ve regressed some this year. They were a trendy RSW over play this offseason but they aren’t going to get there. They lost by 16 to middle of the road ACC team in Wake Forest before dropping a game to a Mountain West team in UNLV. Predictably SEC play hasn’t been much better as they lost by 17 to the Kentucky team that Georgia just dismantled before losing by 17+ to Missouri & Florida.

Over the past two seasons Georgia has beat Vanderbilt by a combined score of 117-0 & outgained them 1,111-227. Neither of those are typos. It has been a complete difference in class. I’m not going to bet on that changing this year. I’ll say Georgia 45, Vanderbilt 0.

Syracuse @ Florida State (-17.5) (-110) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 10/12 @ 11:42 AM

Syracuse got absolutely crushed last week vs North Carolina. They lost the game 40-7 and gave up 644 yards of offense to the Tar Heels. Now they have to go on the road to face a Top 10 FSU team. They have a bye week on deck to lick their wounds so this kind of feels like a let’s just get this game over with spot for Syracuse before they can rest up and try to figure something out.

I think FSU is due for a bit of a laugher against an inferior ACC team. They let Boston College come back late in a weird game and then last week I think outplayed Virginia Tech by more than the 22 point differential would lead you to believe. I’ll say FSU 41, Syracuse 14

Oregon (+3) (-110) @ Washington (Bet Online)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 10/12 @ 11:48 AM

This game should be a lot of fun. Both teams are really good. Washington has an incredible passing attack, but I just think the Ducks are a little more well-rounded as a complete team. The Washington defense should have a really hard time slowing down the Oregon offense. While the Washington offense is very impressive, Oregon has a defensive minded head coach in Dan Lanning. I think the former Georgia DC will figure out a way to get enough stops and maybe turn a few TDs in to FGs with some good redzone play to do enough to come away with a win in a shootout.

Wyoming/Air Force Under 44.5 (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 10/9 @ 7:25 AM

These are two of the slowest offenses in the county. Air Force is dead last 133^rd in offensive pace, while Wyoming isn’t much faster at 123^rd out of 133 in offensive pace. But teams play very slow and run the ball a lot. Air Force runs the ball 92.8% of the time which is #1 in the country by a huge margin (next highest is Navy at 79%), while Wyoming is 29^th in the Nation running the ball 55.4%. With these new clock rules, teams that run the ball a lot lean even more toward the under.

I expect this to be a knockdown drag out old school football game, with neither offense generating many big explosive plays. The Wyoming offense is just 105^th in explosive plays while Air Force is 11^th best at preventing them. The Air Force offense is only 126^th at generating explosive plays while the Wyoming defense is 24^th at preventing them. As you can see, both defenses are going to make the offenses work and slowly move the ball down the field. That means this clock will keep ticking.

Air Force runs the triple option which some defenses aren’t used to defending. However Craig Bohl and Wyoming have had a lot of success against it in recent years. The last three games they have played Air Force they have held them to 14 points, 14 points & 6 points.

While Air Force has put up some high point totals this season, they’ve played a lot of bad defenses. The best defense they faced was probably Sam Houston and that ended up being a 13-3 game. I think Wyoming will be one of the tougher defenses they’ve faced.

This will be a fun, old school game in the Mountain West. I think it will end up being a 20-13 type game.

Drake Maye (UNC) Over 297.5 (-113) Pass Yds vs MIA (Bet Online)
Risking 3.39 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 10/12 @ 1:11 PM

Devontez Walker (UNC) Over 53.5 (-113) Rec Yds vs MIA (Bet Online)
Risking 3.39 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 10/12 @ 1:14 PM

Since these plays are related (and in the interest of time) I’ll will discuss these two plays in the same writeup. UNC finally got Tez Walker eligible last week and they didn’t waste much time getting the Kent State transfer involved in the offense, targeting him 8 times.

This game could get really points-y with a total currently sitting in the high 50’s. UNC let Maye throw the ball 47 times last week even though the game was a blowout and he ended up with 442 yards. He’s topped 400 yards in 2 of his last 3 games. The running game hasn’t been very impressive for UNC (2.0 ypc vs Pittsburgh & 2.8 ypc vs Minnesota). I think they know they are going to have to air the ball out this year with their NFL 1^st Round QB and they should be able to have success against Miami. I’d expect them to get Tez involved even more now that he has a game under his belt.

UAB TT Over 28.5 (-110) @ UTSA (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units
Posted: 10/12 @ 11:46 AM

I was really disappointed with the UTSA defense last week against Temple. They gave up 34 points and let Temple QB EJ Warner throw for 472 yards on them. This is the 3^rd game in a row they’ve allowed at least 34 points. They were supposed to be getting healthier coming off the bye before Temple, but several key defensive players got dinged up again last week. Their status is still up in the air the last I heard.

UAB has really been playing aggressively under new head coach Trent Dilfer. They are throwing the ball more than 53% of the time and have the 19^th highest success rate in the Nation. Last week they were still taking deep shots late in the game when they had a big lead. 90% of the coaches would have been running the clock out in that spot, but UAB was letting it fly. Dilfer is trying to turn some heads and I think even if the game is out of reach he will keep trying to score.

This game will be played on a fast track in the Alamo Dome and I think UTSA will be able to score quickly against this really bad UAB offense, giving UAB plenty of opportunities. I elected for UAB Team Total rather than the full game over just because it has been such a weird year for UTSA. I think the one area of this game I feel the best about is UAB’s ability to put up points. I think they score in the 30’s.

Official Plays – Week 7

Stanford/Colorado Over 59.5 (-110) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Kent State/Eastern Michigan Under 44.5 (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Georgia (-31.5) (-105) @ Vanderbilt (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.15 Units to win 3.00 Units

Syracuse @ Florida State (-17.5) (-110) (Fan Duel)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Oregon (+3) (-110) @ Washington (Bet Online)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Wyoming/Air Force Under 44.5 (-110) (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units

Drake Maye (UNC) Over 297.5 (-113) vs MIA (Bet Online)
Risking 3.39 Units to win 3.00 Units

Devontez Walker (UNC) Over 53.5 (-113) Rec Yds vs MIA (Bet Online)
Risking 3.39 Units to win 3.00 Units

UAB TT Over 28.5 (-110) @ UTSA (Draft Kings)
Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units